Keys to the 2015 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf
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The
Breeders’
Cup Juvenile Turf is heading into its ninth year of competition. With the data of eight races, we can begin to
see some commonalities amongst the winners. The first eight editions were held at Santa Anita five out of eight
years. Churchill Downs hosted twice. Who
can forget the swampy Monmouth Park when Nownownow won the initial Juvenile
Turf?
Let’s
start at the beginning.
Starts:
Half
of the winners made four starts before the Juvenile Turf. Two had started five
times. One had raced three times and the other six times. Five of the colts had two wins on their
resume heading into the Breeders’ Cup race. The other three had a sole
victory. All eight had finished in the
money in a stakes race in their previous start. Two had won, and the rest were
divided equally between finishing second or third.
Course Condition:
The
turf has been firm for six of eight of the Juvenile Turf contests. The course condition had no bearing on the
running style of the winners, as both times that the track was either yielding or
good, the colts won from far back in the pack.
Running
Style/Post Position:
The
field sizes varied from 12 to 14 horses. Eight of the winners were deep
closers. They spent the first part of the race far back in the field and made
one run. Three colts rated in mid-pack, from
fourth to seventh place. Only one colt sat just off of the pace in third place
before getting the jump on the closers.
The
far outside is not a favorable position for the win/place/show spots. All
except one winning colt started from post positions three through seven. Three of
them were successful from post four, two were victorious from post seven, and
one each from posts three, five and thirteen. Posts
nine and below favored the runners-up in the Juvenile Turf. Only two out of a combined sixteen colts who
placed second or third started from posts 11 or higher.
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Betting:
With
full fields of domestic and international two year old colts, the Juvenile Turf
is an excellent betting proposition. All
except one colt in the last eight years paid double digits to win. The smallest
payout was $6.80 when Pounced won in 2009.
Three colts returned between $20 - $27. The exotics were also hefty. In 2011, the $2 Superfecta offered a
whopping $90,140.40 return.
The Favorite:
The
Juvenile Turf odds on favorite has hit the board five out of eight times, but
has won only once.
USA
vs. Europe:
Colts
who last raced in Europe have an overwhelming advantage over their North
American counterparts. All except two Juvenile Turf heroes prepped in England
or France, including last year’s victor Hootenanny, who is based in the U.S.,
but prepped overseas. The two U.S. colts finished first and second,
respectively in the Summer Stakes at Woodbine and the Bourbon Stakes at
Keeneland.
Jockey:
With
the European contingent so overwhelmingly strong, it’s a no brainer that Europe’s
top jock
Frankie Dettori
owns the Juvenile Turf.
He’s won three
editions of the race.
English jockey
Ryan Moore has entered the winner’s circle twice. Julien Leparoux, Mike Smith
and Garret Gomez have also taken home the trophy.
Trainer:
When
one thinks of European turf horses, two names come to mind.
Aidan O’Brien
and
John Gosden.
Both have conditioned two winners of the Juvenile
Turf. Another English trainer, Charles Appleby has also trained a winner.
The U.S. Trainers who own a Breeders’ Cup
Juvenile Turf trophy are:
Todd Pletcher,
Wesley Ward and Francois Parisel, who took over from a suspended Patrick Biancone
to send out Nownownow for the initial Breeders’ Cup victory.
The
Juvenile Turf Jinx:
Winners
of the Juvenile Turf seldom go on to bigger and better. For most of the colts,
it is the highlight of their career, and most developed a case of camera shyness.
Nownownow - The inaugural Juvenile Turf hero
won the With Anticipation Stakes and finished second in the Bourbon Stakes at
Keeneland before his half-length victory over the swampy Monmouth Park turf
course. The colt had a full five-year
career, but visited the winners circle only once more after his Juvenile Turf
victory. Nownownow retired to Louisiana.
Donativum (GB) – The first of four Europeans to
steal the Juvenile Turf trophy won the Tattersalls Timeform Million race before
his half-length victory in the Juvenile Turf over the firm Santa Anita course. Donativum,
a gelding raced for two years, winning once after the Breeders’ Cup in a listed
stakes in France. His whereabouts are unknown.
Pounced – Had only a maiden win to his name
and placed in the French Group 1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere before capturing the
Juvenile Turf by ¾ length at Santa Anita. The colt was injured after the race
and retired to stud in Italy.
Pluck – Won the Summer Stakes at Woodbine
before his one-length victory at Churchill Downs in the Juvenile Turf. Pluck
raced only twice more and failed to hit the board before retiring to stud in
Australia.
Wrote (IRE) – Finished third in the Group 2 Royal
Lodge Stakes before his 2 ¾ length victory in the Juvenile Turf. The colt placed third in two Group 2 races
the following year, but failed to find the winners circle after his Breeders’
Cup score. Wrote stands at stud in Florida.
George Vancouver – Similar to Pounced, George
Vancouver’s sole victory before the Juvenile Turf was a maiden contest. He finished second in the Prix Morny and
third in the Dewhurst Stakes, both Group 1 races, before winning the Juvenile
Turf by 1 ¼ lengths. Continuing his
career as a three year old, George Vancouver failed to hit the board in three
starts and was retired to stud in France.
Outstrip (GB) – won the Champagne Stakes (Eng.
Gr.2) and finished third in the Dewhurst S. (Eng. Gr.1) before having his
picture taken in the Juvenile Turf. The
camera must have startled him because he never won again in six subsequent
starts. His best placing was third in
the St. James' Palace S. (Eng.Gr.1) the following year. He was last seen
finishing eighth in the Zabeel Mile (UAE. Gr. 2) in Dubai in February of 2015.
Hootenanny – has the best record of all off the
Juvenile Turf winners. Previous to the 2014
Breeders’ Cup, the son of Quality Road won or placed in all four of his starts,
including a second in the Prix Morny (Fr. Gr. 1). This year, Hootenanny won an allowance race
at Keeneland before an off the board placing in the prestigious Group 1 Commonwealth
Cup at Ascot this summer.
So
here’s how to pick the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner ... Find a colt that has raced between three and
six times and won or placed in a stakes race in their last start. They should have a mid-pack to deep closer
running style. Toss those in posts 10
and above. Look for a colt that is at least 5-1 or greater in odds and is
shipping in from Europe. Keep the
favorite in your exotic wagers but toss from the win position. If the horse is
trained by Aiden O’Brian and ridden by Frankie Dettori, it has a good chance of
winning or placing. Oh, and be sure it’s
moniker is one name, not two. George Vancouver is the only colt with a two word
name that has won. Now, armed with these facts and figures, picking the winner
is easy, right?
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