Keys to Handicapping Maiden Races

Saratoga and Del Mar will open soon, and well bred babies will make their highly anticipated debuts. Doing your homework can lead to lucrative payoffs. Below are the factors one should take into account before tossing $2 on that 20-1 first-timer.

Pedigree is one of the most important factors in handicapping a maiden race. A knowledge of which sires and damsires get winners first time out is invaluable. Many past performances include pedigree statistics on the immediate family.

Besides sire stats, don’t neglect race records of the dam and siblings. Dams that have blacktype (stakes wins) or siblings with stakes victories are a strong sign of class, especially if they won as juveniles. If the dam or siblings placed in their debuts, chances are strong that the maiden will too. Read more about Pedigree Handicapping here. 

Pedigree isn’t the only tool in the arsenal of handicappers. Below are eight dependable factors to remember.

A debuting maiden in the 1 post is not a good bet. They tend to break inward or can become intimidated on the rail. Additionally, a horse breaking from the far outside post often breaks to the right, losing valuable ground while his jockey sorts him out.

A horse adding two or more furlongs against contenders with previous experience at the race distance is suspect unless the horse has solid stamina breezes of at least 5 furlongs or longer.

Examine the horse's breeze pattern. A horse that has fired a pre-race 4 furlong bullet within their last two works when there are at least four or more works at that distance is live, especially a first time starter.  Look for a slow - fast - slow or a fast - slow -fast pattern where the final two breezes are noticeably faster. This is especially true of horses from conservative barns. Often these horses go to the gate at attractive odds.

The works after the debut, especially the second work post race should be as good (or better) than what they ran before their debut. This is the shakiest clue of the lot because many times trainers will either not work them between starts in they are babies or they back way off of them. That being said, post race works that are as good or better than those before their debut are a very good sign that you have a horse making progress. DO NOT throw one out because they didn’t have a work or had mediocre works. I do have heartburn with those that work very slow (1:15 6F, 1:03 5F, :51 4F) but I am really okay with some 1:14’s or a 1:01. Use this clue as additional data, not a decision point.

Learn which trainers and jockeys win with a high percentage of two-year-olds. Certain trainers, such as Bob Baffert, H. Graham Motion, Peter Miller, John Sadler, Todd Pletcher, and Wesley Ward.  Ron Ellis' babies are usually sharp second time out.  Use trainer stats in combination with other tools.

Purchase Price.  A two-year-old that sold for a lot of money at a two-year-olds in training sales will be live in their first start. Owners don’t shell out for slow horses.

Last - but most important - races aren’t won on paper. Learn the language of the horse and how to use physical handicapping to your advantage.   When one bets a maiden race, it is crucial to see how the horses are behaving. Or not. A little sweat never hurt anyone, especially on a hot, humid day. A first time runner looking like a shampoo commercial can be tossed. Look for a horse that catches your eye. He has a bounce in his step, he’s eager, but not kicking, rearing or causing general havoc. There’s a shine to his coat and you can tell he’s feeling good.  If a million dollar baby from a conservative barn looks the part and his morning breezes are faster than the barn's average, chances are very good that he'll run to his looks. 

There are no steadfast rules in the world of handicapping, only general guidelines. Using the above tips can net some decent payouts, but remember, anything can and will happen in a horse race.