Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: Litmus Test

Litmus Test entered Saturday’s Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity as the lone contender with graded-stakes experience, and he ran to expectations.

Although Litmus Test broke a step slow, he tailgated the pacesetter Provenance and saved ground around the first turn. Patiently handled by Juan Hernandez, Litmus Test advanced with purpose on the far turn and battled his stablemate for a few strides before passing him. Once clear, he had enough in reserve to turn back the late run of Blacksmith, who finished second, 3 1/2 lengths ahead of Provenance. Litmus Test stopped the clock at 1:42.38 for 1 1/16 miles.

The result completed a 1-2-3 sweep for Bob Baffert, who added a record-extending 15th Los Alamitos Futurity trophy to his collection. With the victory, Litmus Test earned 10 qualifying points toward Kentucky Derby 2026, bringing his total to 19 and placing him second on the leaderboard behind Ted Noffey. Points were awarded to the remaining finishers on a 5-3-2-1 scale.

Now the owner of a 5: 2-0-1 record, Litmus Test has banked $350,188.

Bred in Kentucky by Machmer Hall, Litmus Test (Nyquist–Study Hard, by Malibu Moon) was purchased for $875,000 by Donato Lanni at the 2024 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga select yearling sale. He races for a large partnership that includes SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Stonestreet Stables, Diane Bashor, Determined Stables, Golconda Stable, Waves Edge Capital and Catherine Donovan.

Litmus Test made a strong first impression when breaking his maiden sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs at Del Mar in August, then was quickly tested against elite company. He finished fourth behind Brant in the Del Mar Futurity (G1), followed by a third-place effort behind champion-elect Ted Noffey in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland. Leading into his latest start, he finished fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, again behind Ted Noffey.

Sire

Nyquist (Uncle Mo–Seeking Gabrielle, by Forestry) cemented his place in history with a rare Breeders’ Cup Juvenile-Kentucky Derby double, becoming Uncle Mo’s first champion and launching his sire’s legacy at the highest level. Undefeated during his championship 2-year-old campaign, Nyquist won eight of 11 starts overall and retired with earnings of $5,189,200.

At stud, Nyquist has mirrored his racetrack versatility. He led the freshman sire list and produced champion 2-year-old filly Vequist in his first crop. His runners have succeeded from sprint distances through the classics, although Randomized remains his lone graded-stakes winner at 1 1/4 miles.

Litmus Test’s Futurity victory capped a strong 2025 juvenile season for Nyquist, who also sired Argos, winner of the Summer Stakes (G1) in Canada. Although Nyquist has produced multiple Eclipse Award–winning juveniles, including Immersive and Vequist, as well as Canadian champion Gretzky the Great, his influence is not confined to early runners.

Nyquist currently boasts 21 graded-stakes winners and 34 black-type winners from six crops to race, including four Grade 1 winners aged 2 through 4 in 2025. He previously won the Los Alamitos Futurity with Slow Down Andy in 2021.

Nyquist’s three champions all are produced from A.P. Indy-line mares. But Litmus Test is the first stakes winner bred on the Nyquist–Malibu Moon cross.

Distaff Line

Litmus Test’s female family blends durability with proven class, offering hard-knocking competitors and graded-stakes class with a blend of speed and stamina.

Litmus Test is the second foal out of Study Hard, who was unplaced but has produced durable runners. His half-brother Home School (by Goldencents) earned $165,114 the hard way in 50 starts, winning at one mile and 1 1/16 miles and placing at 1 1/8 miles.

Study Hard is a full sister to multiple graded-stakes winner and Grade 1–placed sprinter Sweet August Moon, the dam of Grade 2-placed Sir Sampson.

Litmus Test’s third dam, Silent Turn, was a multiple graded winner at 1 1/16 miles and Grade 1-placed at 1 1/8 miles and 1 1/4 miles, adding depth and stamina to the pedigree.

Study Hard also has produced two Twirling Candy fillies in the last two seasons.

Damsire

Malibu Moon (A.P. Indy–Macoumba, by Mr. Prospector) remains one of racing’s great “what might have been” stories. Exceptionally precocious for an A.P. Indy colt, he raced only twice before a knee injury ended his career. He became a leading sire, producing a champion and 38 stakes winners, including Kentucky Derby winner Orb, before his death in 2021.

As a broodmare sire, Malibu Moon continues to exert considerable influence. His daughters have produced 82 stakes winners at all distances. Among them are champions Sierra Leone and Stellar Wind, plus Haskell (G1) and Louisiana Derby (G2) winner Girvin, and Grade 1 winners By the Moon and My Conquestadory.

Kentucky Derby contender or pretender?

Although only Real Quiet (1997) was the only Los Alamitos Futurity winner to go on to a Kentucky Derby victory, a few came close. 

Runners who placed in the Futurity have been more successful at wearing the roses, although the last was Giacomo (2004). Thunder Gulch (1994) and Alysheba (1987) were second in the Futurity, and Ferdinand (1985) was third.

In the last two decades, nine Futurity winners have started in the Derby, with two hitting the board, including Journalism, last year’s Preakness winner and Belmont third.

Litmus Test is a well-balanced, athletic colt whose conformation and pedigree indicate that 1 1/8 miles won’t be a concern and 1 1/4 miles might be within his scope, given his running style, mindset and, of course, his trainer’s record with Derby horses. Litmus Test paddles or “wings” with his left front foreleg but otherwise has good leg extension.

Litmus Test was green in the Los Alamitos Futurity. While battling Providence to his inside, he forgot to switch leads and was going up and down instead of forward, his mind locked on his foe. Once he got his mind back into the game, Litmus Test switched leads, surged forward and held Blacksmith at bay. He’s still learning and should outgrow the proclivity to hesitate before passing rivals. 

At this stage, it appears Baffert might have another Kentucky Derby contender developing in his barn.