Kentucky Derby pedigrees: Should Forte be a top choice?

Synonyms of the word Forte include ability, aptitude, competence, strength and talent.

These qualities were displayed in the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile when Forte swept by a struggling Cave Rock by 1 1/2 lengths to become our next juvenile colt champion. It was 2 1/2 lengths back to that one’s stablemate National Treasure, who finished 1 1/2 lengths in front of Blazing Sevens.

In a textbook ride, Irad Ortiz Jr. settled Forte in fifth position on the rail about three lengths behind pacesetting Cave Rock in the early stages. Then Forte made his way into the clear and swung six-wide around the far turn. The pair sailed down the lane with nary a glance at Cave Rock to win by 1 1/2 lengths. Forte completed 1 1/16 miles in 1:43.06.

Forte (Violence - Queen Caroline, by Blame) was bred by South Gate Farm. The dark bay colt went through the sales ring twice, selling as a weanling for $80,000 in the Keeneland November mixed sale and drawing $110,000 in the following year’s Keeneland September yearling auction.

Forte has won 4 of 5 starts and earned $1,595,150. His lone loss was a fourth-place finish in the Sanford Stakes (G3) in his second start.

Forte was awarded 30 qualifying points toward the 2023 Kentucky Derby, and he leads the herd with a total of 40 points. Cave Rock earned 12 points and has a total of 22. His stablemate National Treasure received nine points for his third-place finish and has 13 total points. Blazing Sevens earned six points, and Curly Jack took home three.

So does Forte have what it takes to become the third Juvenile-Derby winner in history?

Violence (Medaglia d’Oro - Violent Beauty, by Gone West) was a dazzling but fragile competitor who won his first three starts, including the Nashua Stakes (G2) and Futurity (G1).

However, one of the early 2013 Kentucky Derby favorites, Violence, had his Kentucky Derby hopes derailed after injuring his right-front medial sesamoid while finishing second in the Fountain of Youth (G2).

Violence set about producing precocious offspring and led both the first- and second-crop sire lists by the number of winners and earnings. Not surprising since he hails from the brilliant distaff line that includes 1993 filly triple crown and champion older mare Sky Beauty and the Grade 1 winner and producer Maplejinsky. 

So far Violence’s stakes-winning offspring have a distance range from sprints to 1 1/8 miles. However, three of his offspring contested 1 1/4 miles in the last five years. His son Something Natural finished second, beaten a neck in the Canadian Derby (G3) with a final time of 2:03.77. Another son, Unrighteous, won an off-the-turf, allowance-class race, beating three other contenders on a sloppy track at 2:03.15.

Violence’s most accomplished runners include Forte and the swift Grade 1 winners Dr. Schivel, Volatile, and No Parole, all sprinter-milers.

A first foal, Forte hails from a classy stakes-winning female family with heavy Phipps family influences. Dating to 1926, all except three of 10 dams in Forte’s direct line own black-type earnings. 

Forte traces to La Troienne, the foundation mare of the Lowe family through the mare’s granddaughter, 1961 Kentucky broodmare of the year Striking.

This prolific family gave us three champions, Kentucky Derby hero Smarty Jones, Folklore, Essential Quality, the brilliant Grade 1-winning sprinter Come Dancing and many other group and graded winners.

Forte’s immediate distaff line is speed-oriented. His dam Queen Caroline (Blame - Queens Plaza, by Forestry) won six of 20 starts, five of them stakes. She was second or third six additional times, all on the lawn between a mile to 1 1/16 miles.  

Queen Caroline has two stakes-placed half-sisters – three-time stakes-placed K P Slickem, capable up to 1 1/6 miles, and Churchill Debutante (G3) third-place finisher Queen Teuta.

Forte’s second dam is the precocious Sorority Stakes heroine Queen’s Plaza (Forestry).

Forte’s damsire 2010 champion older horse Blame (Arch - Liable, by Seeking the Gold) has the best- combined bloodlines of the Phipps and Claiborne breeding programs. However, the appropriately named Blame always will be known as the horse who ruined Zenyatta’s perfect record and her chance to earn back to back Breeders’ Cup Classic victories.

Blame is just getting started as a broodmare sire. From just 105 starters, 66 have won, and 10 have been stakes winners. So far none of his daughters’ babies have won beyond nine furlongs, but it’s only a matter of time until they do.

Derby contender or pretender?

In human time, the Kentucky Derby is only six months away. Blink, and you’ll miss it. But it’s a lifetime in the life of a racehorse when today’s star is tomorrow’s distant memory.

Mentally and physically, Forte is a professional. He’s comfortable rating on the rail or between horses, and the athletic youngster smoothly moves through holes or around horses. He has a smooth stride, keeps a straight path and switches leads at the right time.

Forte’s pedigree suggests he may be most competitive at 1 1/16 miles. However, 1 1/8 miles could be within his scope with the right trip and company.

Forte likely will winter in Florida with the rest of the Pletcher team.