Kentucky Derby 2019 Pedigrees: 6 exciting runners to watch

The next few months make for an exciting time for contenders and wannabees on the 2019 Kentucky Derby trail. The distance-challenged, precocious babies won’t hold the edge over late bloomers as the 3-year-olds mature and race distances lengthen. 

The Kentucky Derby pedigree watch list will discuss stakes, allowance and last out maiden runners. I’ll review the pedigree, conformation, running style, and other details.

This week we’ll look at well-bred the latest stakes horses and a nice allowance winner.

GUNMETAL GRAY

(Exchange Rate - Classofsixtythree, by Include)

Trainer: Jerry Hollendorfer

Race Record: 5: 2-1-0 ($217,200)

Last Race: 1^st Sham Stakes

Derby Points: 14

Poor Gunmetal Gray. In his debut,  he was run over by Roadster and finished 10 lengths back. Second time out at a mile, the son of Exchange Rate won easily at a mile by 6 3/4 lengths. In his next two starts, the pretty gray colt was no match for Game Winner in the American Pharoah and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Gunmetal Gray was the class of the field in the Sham Stakes, and it showed. After lingering at the back of the pack for much of the race, Gunmetal Gray sailed four wide around the turn and won by a length.

The Grade 2-winning sprinter/miler Exchange Rate gets winners over all surfaces and distances. While the bulk are sprinter/milers, he does get the occasional turf router at 1 1/4-miles and further. His son, Xchanger, won the 1 1/8-mile Federico Tesio Stakes, and daughter Ermine won the Falls City Handicap at 1 1/8 miles.

Gunmetal Gray is the fifth foal and only blacktype earner in his immediate family. His dam and third dam are the only blacktype earners in three generations of the distaff line. Both are stakes placed. Gunmetal Gray’s dam was successful from a mile to 1 1/8 miles on dirt and was third in the 1 1/8-mile Ruffian Stakes (G1). Gunmetal Gray’s third dam, the sweetly named Whipped Cream, placed in turf stakes from 1 1/16 miles to 1 3/16 miles. Gunmetal Gray’s damsire Include was Maryland’s 2001 Champion Older Horse. He excelled between 1 1/16 miles to 1 3/16 miles and placed at 1 1/4 miles in graded stakes.

Derby Distance Verdict: Borderline. Gunmetal Gray’s pedigree is solid for middle distances, and his conformation is indicative of a miler/middle distance type. However, his late-running tactics could help his chances to go farther, especially if there’s a solid early pace. Late-running types usually pick up minor awards in the Kentucky Derby, unless there’s a muddy track, or an unusually swift early pace.

SUENO

(Atreides - Class Above, by Quiet American)

Trainer: Keith Desormeaux

Race Record: 4: 2-1-1 ($90,440)

Last Race: 2^nd Sham Stakes (G3)

Derby Points: 4

Sueno raced three to five wide just off the pace in the Sham Stakes. In the stretch, Sueno looked like a winner while gaining on the tiring Much Better, but couldn’t hold off the furious late charge of Gunmetal Gray.

First Crop Sire Atreides is a son of Medaglia d'Oro out of multiple Grade 1 stakes-winning sprinter Dream Rush. Atreides competed for only a single season, winning four of five starts, all between six furlongs to a mile on the Gulfstream Park dirt. His sole loss was at 1 1/16-mile in the Indiana Derby. The young stallion stands for only $5,000 stud fee but has two stakes winners, one of them graded, and a Group 1-placed runner. So far, none of Atreides’ offspring have won beyond a mile and 70 yards.

Sueno is the eighth foal and first blacktype earner out of the dual stakes-winning miler, Class Above. One of Sueno’s half-sisters bore UAE listed stakes-placed turf miler Waqqad. There’s little blacktype in Sueno’s second generation, but it includes Grade 3 stakes-winning sprinter Promise Me Silver and her half-brother, restricted stakes-winning turf miler Bully Good. The third generation is filled with hardy sprinter milers. Quiet American is the damsire of 70 stakes winners, including two-time Champ Saint Liam, Preakness hero Bernardini, and turf routers Beach Patrol and Hard Aces.

Derby Distance Verdict: Nope! Sueno is a beautiful dark bay colt who brings to mind his second tail sire, Medaglia d'Oro.  Atreides’ progeny probably won’t want to run much farther than 1 1/16 miles, although he may get the occasional winner at 1 1/8 miles. While Quiet American’s daughters produce classic distance winners, Sueno’s distaff line are hardy sprinter/miler types. Sueno was slowing at the end of the Sham Stakes, getting his last two furlongs in 13.13 and 13.88. Suno may handle up to 1 1/8 miles in the right company but will be stronger as a miler.

WAR OF WILL

(War Front - Visions of Clarity (IRE), by Sadler's Wells)

Trainer: Mark Casse

Race Record: 6: 2-1-1 ($251,569)

Last Race: 1^st LeComte Stakes (G3)

Derby Points: 10

Despite his turfy pedigree, War of Will has found a home on dirt. After capturing a 1 1/16-mile maiden event by five lengths over a sloppy track, the son of War Front returned to run them off their feet over a fast track, winning the Lecomte by four lengths.

War of Will has a classy distance-oriented distaff line. He’s the 10th foal and third stakes winner out of a listed French stakes winner. War of Will’s half-brother is Group 1 stakes-winning turf sprinter Pathfork. Another half-brother, Tacticus, is a long-distance dirt specialist who won the listed Birdstone Stakes at 1 3/4 miles and the 1 5/8-mile Temperance Hill Invitational. War of Will’s dam is a listed French stakes winner and a half-sister to Breeders’ Cup Mile hero Spinning World. 

Other notable stakes horses in this distaff line include 2003 Champion Sprinter Alderbaran, multiple graded turf router and sires Good Journey and Denon. Farther back in the pedigree is Best in Show, whose descendants gave us Champions Rags to Riches, Peeping Fawn, and many other illustrious stakes winners.

Derby Distance Verdict: YEP. War Front’s American offspring that have won at classic distances have done so over the lawn. His dirt runners have been successful up to 1 1/8 miles. Eventually, he may have a breakthrough winner at 1 3/16 miles or 1 1/4 miles on dirt. War of Will’s damsire, Sadler’s Wells, is a Classic/Solid Chef-de-Race, meaning that he provides long-winded stamina to pedigrees.

HOG CREEK HUSTLE

(Overanalyze - Candy Fortune, by Candy Ride (ARG))

Trainer: Vickie Foley

Race Record: 5: 2-1-1 ($121,300)

Last Race: 2^nd LeComte Stakes

Derby Points: 4

Hog Creek Hustle was the best of the rest in the Lecomte after making a powerful seven-wide move around the far turn and motoring home in second place, two lengths in front of a tired, but game Manny Wah. 

Overanalyze sired enough precocious youngsters to earn last year’s leading first-crop sire designation. But as distances get longer and the babies start to mature, the stallion has slipped down the ranks. The son of Dixie Union won twice at 1 1/8 miles, in the Remsen Stakes and Arkansas Derby, yet finished out of the money going farther. He may get the rare winner at 1 1/4 miles, but 1 1/8 miles is as far as the bulk of his progeny will want to run.

Hog Creek Hustle is the second foal and second blacktype earner in the immediate family. The distaff line is comprised of sprinters. Hog Creek Hustle’s half-brother, Majestic Dunhill, is a stakes-winning sprinter on dirt and turf. Their second dam, Ready for Fortune, won the six-furlong Dearly Precious Stakes, while third dam Fortunate Card won the restricted Desert Vixen Stakes as a 2-year-old. Hog Creek Hustle’s damsire Candy Ride may add a little stamina to the mix, yet most of his daughter’s stakes-winning offspring are best up to 1 1/8 miles. 

Derby Distance Verdict: Borderline. Late-running miler or better with distance? Hog Creek Hustle has the pedigree to be best up to 1 1/8 miles. His running style may take him farther if he has a fast pace to run at and can get a good trip without taking the scenic view through the clubhouse around the far turn.

MIHOS

(Cairo Prince - Feline Flatline, by Lion Heart)

Trainer: Jimmy Jerkens

Race Record: 3: 2-0-1 ($108,880)

Last Race: 1^st Mucho Macho Man Stakes (L)

Derby Points: 0

Mihos raced four to five wide throughout in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes and eventually wore down the tiring Trophy Chaser to win by a neck. The final time for the one-turn mile was 1:37.56 and, according to Trakus, Mihos got his final furlong in an uninspiring 13.78.   

Cairo Prince, a son of Pioneerof the Nile, won or placed in three stakes, including the Remsen, Nashua and Holy Bull. The pretty gray stallion was the early favorite for the 2014 Kentucky Derby before injury struck and he was retired. Cairo Prince is currently ranked third by earnings, and second by number of winners among first-crop sires. Besides Mihos, Cairo Prince’s first crop includes Iroquois Stakes hero Cairo Cat and Blue Norther heroine Giza Goddess. His babies should have no issues with distance. 

Mihos is the second foal and first stakes winner out of the un-raced mare Feline Flatline. The mare’s half-sister Sharla Rae captured the 1 1/8-mile Del Mar Oaks (G1) as well as three other stakes at distances ranging between 6 1/2 furlongs and 1 1/16 miles. Mithos’ second dam, Jinnys Gold, is multiple stakes placed between six furlongs and 1 1/8 miles over dirt and turf. The third generation of Mithos’ distaff line includes two stakes-winning sprinter/milers, Dancing Deputy and Dancing Water.  

Mithos’ damsire Lion Heart was aptly named. The courageous son of Tale of the Cat set a new stakes record in the Hollywood Prevue Stakes at seven furlongs, and won or placed in six other graded stakes, including the Haskell Invitational (G1). Lion Heart also finished second to Smarty Jones in the 2004 Kentucky Derby. Lion Heart’s daughters have produced only four stakes winners, including Mihos. None have won beyond a mile. As a sire, Lion Heart’s stakes-winning progeny are best up to 1 1/8 miles. However, he is represented by one winner beyond that distance, Dangerous Midge, the 2010 Breeders’ Cup Turf hero.

Derby Distance Verdict: Borderline. Mihos’ pedigree has stamina over a miler/middle distance distaff line. Although Cairo Prince should add a degree of stamina, we don’t know for sure how far his babies will go until they actually do it. There are instances of stamina-oriented sires whose offspring didn’t win beyond 1 1/8 miles, despite numerous attempts. Mihos’ conformation is another clue, and the colt, while conformationally correct and beautifully athletic looking, may be best up to 1 1/8 miles in the right company.

BOURBON WAR

(Tapit - My Conquestadory, by Artie Schiller)

Trainer: Mark Henning

Race Record: 3: 2-0-0 ($79,900)

Last Race: 1^st Allowance Optional Claiming

Derby Points: 0

After a wide trip and fourth-place finish in the Remsen Stakes, Bourbon War got back on track with a victory in his sophomore debut, outclassing a full field of optional claimers by 2 1/4 lengths.

Bourbon War is the first foal out of Grade 1-winning miler My Conquestadory. The mare won or placed in five stakes over Polytrack and turf, from a mile to 1 1/8 miles. My Conquestadory’s half-sister is a stakes-placed sprinter, while another half-sister bore Grade 3 stakes placed turf horse Salvator Mundi, who is by Artie Schiller. Bourbon War’s second dam is the multiple stakes placed sprinter Golden Artemis. She’s a half-sister to multiple stakes placed sprinter Drewcitable, and her half-sister bore stakes-winning sprinter Artie B Good, both stakes winners by Artie Shiller.  

Artie Schiller is the damsire of two stakes winners, one at six furlongs, the other at 1 1/8 miles over the lawn. As a sire, his progeny are best as sprinter/milers, although some have won at 1 1/8 miles over Polytrack and turf. He has three winners at classic distances, all over the Australian turf.

Derby Distance Verdict: Borderline.  es, Tapit has sired Belmont Stakes winners, but the stallion also gets top sprinters as well. That’s why they pay the big bucks for his stud fee. For the most part, when Tapit is bred to sprinter/miler distaff lines, that’s what you get. In the 1 1/8-mile Del Mar Oaks, My Conquestadory made the pace but tired in the stretch to finish third, beaten 2 3/4 lengths. She was best as a miler. Tapit may offer some stamina, but 1 1/8 miles may be at the top of Bourbon War’s distance range. Turf could also be an option for the colt.