Kentucky Derby 2019 Pedigrees: Will these 6 get the distance?
The next four to five months is an exciting time to sort out contenders from pretenders on the 2019 Kentucky Derby trail. The precocious but distance-challenged 2-year-olds will be unmasked, while the late bloomers flower.
Each week, my Triple Crown watch list will discuss stakes, allowance and last out maiden runners. I’ll review the pedigree, conformation, running style and other details keyed on whether these horses want the Derby's 1 1/4 miles.
More questions than answers surround these types, at least early on. How tough was the field? Can they handle the pressure of stakes races? How far do they want to run? Can they handle adversity?
Nobody knows except the horses, and they change their minds on a whim. The answers I provide are drawn in part from reviewing pedigrees, conformation, race observation and speculation. That's a fancy way of saying, “Heck if I know, but I'll take a stab at it anyway.”
(General Quarters - Trip South, by Trippi)
Trainer: Ken McPeek
Race Record: 5-2-2-1 ($448,990)
Last Race 1st in Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2)
Derby Points: 18
Signalman settled mid-pack in his last behind a swift early pace. Brian Hernandez Jr. guided the colt up the rail, taking over for the fading front-runners. They were all out to hold off Plus Que Parfait by a neck. Signalman’s final half-furlong was run in 6.41. Compare that to Que Parfait’s final half-furlong in 6.38 and Limonite’s 6.32.
Signalman has a miler’s pedigree and conformation. General Quarters, a gray son of Sky Mesa, handled 1 1/8 miles, but only over turf and Polytrack. He has two stakes winners, neither have won past 1 1/16 miles.
Signalman’s dam’s half-sister bore the multiple stakes winner sprinter Lovable Lady. The third generation produced multiple graded stakes winner Diamond Stripes, twice a winner at 1 1/8 miles, and the Grade 2-winning sprinter Summer Note. Signalman’s damsire Trippi is all about speed.
Derby Distance Verdict: Nope. Competitive colt has a good foundation for next year and could be prevalent in early Kentucky Derby preps. He’ll find the going tough at 1 1/8-miles, unless the race sets up perfectly for him.
(Into Mischief - Reina Maria, by Songandaprayer)
Trainer: Butch Reid Jr.
Race Record: 3-3-0-0
($192,100)
Last Race: 1st in Remsen Stakes (G2)
Derby Points: 10
A 2-year old that wins at 1 1/8-miles is one to watch as a 3-year-old, right? Sometimes. Last year’s Remsen winner surprised in the Travers Stakes and three of the last six colts who won or placed in the Remsen finished fourth in the Kentucky Derby. However, in this year’s Remsen Stakes, Maximus Mischief set slow early fractions and snuck away to win by 2 1/4 lengths in an uninspiring 1:51.34, getting his final furlong in 12:86. Granted, the track played slow on Cigar Mile day. The runner-up Network Effect made up ground late, getting his final furlong in a very good 12.35.
Into Mischief is noted for getting sprinter/milers. He’s sired three stakes winners at 1 1/8 miles: Santa Anita Derby winner Goldencents, Florida Derby victor Audible, and Louisiana Derby hero Victor’s in Trouble.
Maximus Mischief’s dam is a hardy sprinter who made 28 starts. She’s a half-sister to the precocious Chandelier Stakes winner Secret Compass. There’s little blacktype in Maximus Mischief’s pedigree, although the multiple stakes sprinter/milers Mylute, and Stageplay are distant relatives. Maximus Mischief’s damsire is noted for getting win-early sprint types.
Derby Distance Verdict: Nope, but he could make some noise in the New York preps for the Kentucky Derby.
(Take Charge Indy - Pleasant Song, by Unbridled's Song)
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Race Record: 4-3-0-0 ($321,125)
Last Race: 1st in Remington Springboard Mile
Derby Points: 10
Long Range Toddy has been the big fish in the little Remington Park pond, capturing three of four starts. The Springboard Mile marked the first time the dark bay colt faced shippers. Granted, they were restricted stakes winners or optional claimers, but hey, a win is a win, even if it’s by a head.
Long Range Toddy’s sire Take Charge Indy won one of five starts at 1 1/18-miles and beyond. That doesn’t inspire confidence in his getting winners at 1 1/4-miles unless the runners have a hefty dose of stamina on the distaff side.
As a damsire, Unbridled’s Song’s stats aren’t that much different than his sire stats. His offspring are best up to 1 1/8-miles, with the occasional turf/Polytrack stakes winner at 1 1/4-miles. Long Range Toddy’s distaff line is mostly turf oriented. His dam won on the lawn, and his second dam is the swift turf miler, Pleasant Temper.
Derby Distance Verdict: Borderline/No. On paper, he should handle 1 1/8-miles, but class is questionable. Only Long Range Toddy knows for sure if he can handle graded stakes company.
(Point of Entry - Belvedera, by Awesome Again)
Trainer: Brendan Walsh
Race Record: 4-1-1-2 ($86,400)
Last Race: 2nd in Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2)
Derby Points: 4
According to Google, Plus Que Parfait is a French term that roughly translates to “set in the past and then look further back at an action that took place earlier.” If not, then some Francophile will undoubtedly set me straight. On the racetrack Plus Que Parfait translates to, “late bloomer who should improve next year.”
Freshman sire Point of Entry is a royally bred top class turf router, but his babies are successful over all surfaces. From 52 winners, 22 have won on dirt. His babies will improve with maturity and distance.
Plus Que Parfait’s dam is a half-sister to Touch Dial, a restricted stakes winner at 1 1/8-miles, and his second dam was the precocious juvenile stakes-winning sprinter Forever Land. Plus Que Parfait’s damsire Awesome Again is the damsire of Breeders’ Cup Classic hero Accelerate, Travers winner Keen Ice, and, of course, we all know his famous son Ghostzapper.
Derby Distance Verdict: YEP! Plus Que Parfait has the pedigree and should mature as a 3-year-old. He was just hitting his best stride at the end the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes and should love extra real estate. He’s capable of winning on the lead or from off the pace, which will be handy next year.
(Mucho Macho Man - Itsagiantcauseway, by Giant's Causeway)
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Race Record: 3-2-1-0 ($144,000)
Last Race: 2nd in Los Alamitos Futurity (G1)
Derby Points: 4
Mucho Gusto is lurking in the stable spotlight behind his more accomplished barn mates Game Winner and Improbable. The son of freshman sire and fan favorite Mucho Macho Man showed the typical early zip of a Baffert trainee, capturing his debut and the Bob Hope Stakes in wire-to-wire fashion. Then he came up against Improbable in the Cash Call. Mucho Gusto dueled on the inside early but was no match for Improbable in the stretch.
Mucho Macho Man is a big, rangy stallion who showed class early in his career but needed time to grow into his huge body. He won a thrilling edition of the Breeders’ Cup Classic over Will Take Charge and Declaration of War. Mucho Macho Man has winners over all surfaces, but look for his babies to hit their best stride as older horses.
Mucho Gusto’s dam started 23 times as a turf miler. The class skipped a generation in this family. There’s plenty in the third generation, including Canadian Champ and sire Peaks and Valleys, who won multiple graded stakes at 1 1/8-miles, His half-sister Alternate, who just missed at 1 1/2 miles by a nose on the turf, her son sire Alternation, a multiple graded stakes winner at 1 1/8-miles, and he also captured the Pimlico Special at 1 3/16- miles.
Derby Distance Verdict: Maybe! Mucho Gusto has the pedigree to handle classic distances, but does he have the mindset? Improbable passed him way too easily. Plus, Mucho Gusto is proven on dirt, but he has the action of a turf horse. Would like to see what he could do if he relaxed off the lead. Legitimate contender or over-hyped? Guess we’ll find out next year.
(Noble Mission (GB) - Reunited, by Dixie Union)
Trainer: Shug McGaughey
III
Race Record: 2-1-1-0 ($146,750)
Last Race: 2nd in Champagne Stakes (G1)
Derby Points: 4
Shug McGaughey’s a pretty conservative trainer, and most of his 2- year-olds don’t win first time out. Code of Honor did, then followed up with a strong second-place finish in the Champagne. The Chestnut colt stumbled at the start and found himself at the back of the pack. He ate a lot of dirt going five-wide on the turn, but gained every step of the way, eating into Complexity’s lead. Code of Honor was scheduled to start in the Remsen, but McGaughey shipped the colt to Payson Park instead, and the colt is on a steady breezing schedule.
Code of Honor is by freshman sire and turf router, Noble Mission. The full brother to European Champ Frankel won at 1 1/2 miles. The stallion has three dirt winners, but the bulk are best over turf and Polytrack. His babies will mature with age.
Code of Honor’s distaff line is speed-oriented. His dam is a graded stakes-winning sprinter, and he’s a half-brother to Big League, who placed in the Best Pal (G2) as a 2-year-old. A half-sister bore Successful Zip, who was second in this year’s Sapling Stakes at Monmouth. Code of Honor’s second generation is filled with stakes winners and stakes placed sprinter/milers, and his second dam Tivli is a stakes winning sprinter. Dixie Union is the damsire of 2-year-old champ New Year’s Day, Met mile winner Mor Spirit and Remsen winner Mohayman, to name a few. None have won beyond 1 1/8 miles.
Derby Distance Verdict: Borderline. Code of Honor has a stamina over speed pedigree. In recent years, these types have done pretty well in the Derby. This colt overcame a bad trip in only his second start, and that’s always a good thing. Keep him on the watch list.