How to Find a Kentucky Derby Winner

Right around this time of year, there’s a buzz in the air. No, it isn’t the snow blowers or the crowds at the Black Friday sales. It’s the horseplayers reviewing early candidates for the 2015 Kentucky Derby trail.

 

Over the last twenty years, colts that have been victorious in the Kentucky Derby have followed a fairly specific training pattern. The majority of the Derby winners from 1990 – 2014 made their first two-year-old appearance between June and August. Most won their first race  during the months of September and November. The exceptions are California Chrome, who debuted in April of his two year old year;  plus Fusaichi Pegasus and Monarchos, who didn’t win their maiden race until the following January, although they did run the previous year. Seven of the last ten Kentucky Derby winners have competed in a stakes race as a two year old, six of them in graded stakes. However, only three won a graded stakes as a juvenile.

 

The winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile is normally installed as the future betting favorite for the Kentucky Derby.  Avoid this horse like the plague. The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile has almost no bearing on the Kentucky Derby. Only two Derby winners in twenty years have even raced in the Breeders’ Cup. Street Sense won, and Mine That Bird finished an undistinguished twelfth in the Juvenile.  One year there will be another exception. Perhaps this year’s Breeders’ Cup hero Texas Red can break the mold.

 

All except four of the last twenty Derby champs started their three-year-old season in January or February. Before 2007, our heroes participated in three or four preps before the big race.  All this changed dramatically in 2007 when Street Sense didn’t start his three-year-old season until March and had only two prep races. Five of the last seven Kentucky Derby winners followed in the hoof prints of Street Sense, participating in just two races before heading to the winner’s circle in the Kentucky Derby. The last two Kentucky Derby winners, Orb and California Chrome, made three starts before the Kentucky Derby, so maybe trainers are going back to traditional methods.

 

The playing field changed further in 2013 with the inception of the Kentucky Derby points. Points are awarded to the first four finishers of designated stakes races. 34 races are included in the series, starting in September with the Iroquois Stakes and ending in mid-April with the Lexington Stakes. 

 

It’s too soon to determine how much credence we can give to the juvenile races that are included in the new Kentucky Derby Points System.  Nine races for two-year-olds are included in the structure, so 36 colts are awarded points. Here’s how the top four finishers in the 2013 and 2014 Kentucky Derbies fared in the designated two year old races:

 

2014 Winner – California Chrome – 0 points

     2^nd place – Commanding Curve – 0 points

     3^rd place – Danza – 0 points

     4^th place – Wicked Strong – 3^rd Remsen (G-2) 2 points

 

2013 Winner - Orb – 0 points

     2^nd Place – Golden Soul – 0 points

     3^rd Place – Revolutionary – 0 points

     4^th Place – Normandy Invasion – 2^nd Remsen (G-2) 4 points

 

 

The top two year old point holders of 2013 and 2014 were nowhere to be found.

 

 

 

Now we know the parameters for finding a Kentucky Derby winner.  We’re looking for a colt who won their maiden race between August and November and who may have participated in a stakes race as a two-year-old, but not necessarily one of the designated Derby prep races.  Sounds easy, doesn’t it?

 

 

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