Head to Head: Remsen is Ky. Derby prep at Aqueduct

Laurie

Ashley

1. Tux (3-1)

Normally conservative trainer Bill Mott sends Tux directly to Remsen after the pretty gray colt won at first asking last month. Tux broke quickly but was hard held while Junior Alvarado rated him off the pacesetter's flank. Tux took over in mid-stretch, opening up by 3 1/2 lengths and getting 6 1/2-furlongs in 1:17.39. The performance was good enough to earn an 84 Brisnet Speed Rating. Tapit's son is out of Grade 3-winning sprinter Fancy Dress Party. There is minor black type in the second and third generations. Tux's fourth dam is multiple-graded winning sprinter/miler Meafara. Asking Tux to tackle winners in his second start and first route is a lot to ask. He was professional in his debut, and Tux's pedigree says he'll enjoy the distance, so I'll use him in the exotics.

Trained by Bill Mott, Tux debuted a winner in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden event at Aqueduct on Nov. 9. Because the recency of that race, only one of the other four entrants have made a subsequent start, and that colt finished fifth next out. Tux received an 82 Equibase speed figure for his debut. The Remsen (G2) will be just the second start for this colt and his first at a two-turn route. Mott has been winning at a 15% clip with a 41% in-the-money rate with runners stretching out from a sprint to a route. Mott also isn't one to rush his juveniles, so the fact that Tux is entered here in his second start speaks volumes about Mott's opinion of this pretty gray. Junior Alvarado retains the mount. Contender.

2. Aviator Gui (6-1)

Aviator Gui returns to dirt after a mediocre turf performance. The Chad Brown trainee had zero early speed in a one-mile maiden event in his second start. Once Aviator Gui caught up, Manny Franco had to tap the breaks slightly between horses. They circled the field, and Franco hand-rode the colt under the wire while Aviator Gui put his ears up once past the competition. The fractions were slow, and Aviator Gui completed the mile in 1:38.23 and crawled his last furlong in 13.96 seconds. The pretty gray colt earned a career-best 80 speed rating. Uncle Mo's son is out of Gun Runner's half-sister, the unraced Tapit mare Paulistinha. Aviator Gui has beautiful leg extension and stretches his body out while running. Exotics.

Trained by Chad Brown, Aviator Gui is 3: 1-0-1. The colt was third on debut in a seven-furlong maiden event at Saratoga. Sandman, the winner of that race, was third in the Street Sense (G3) two starts later. Aviator Gui came back to win at second asking in a one-mile, off-the-turf maiden event at the Belmont at Aqueduct meet. Three of his four rivals from that race were next-out winners. Brown then ran the colt in the 1 1/16-mile Awad Stakes on the turf; Aviator Gui finished fourth amid a group that left a lot to be desired. Brown is 14% with a 54% in-the-money rate with turf-to-dirt runners. Manny Franco retains the mount. Pass.

3. Poster (5-1)

Undefeated on turf, Poster takes his first spin on the dirt. His class is questionable since from a combined 13 returning rivals, only two won their next start. Munnings's son is out of Tapit's daughter Pin Up, who was unplaced on fast dirt but won on a sloppy track and placed on turf. Her half-brother is Bernardini. Although Poster's pedigree indicates he should handle the dirt, only one of three half-siblings won once in a dozen starts on dirt at the claiming level. According to Race Lens, Munnings has seven winners from 82 starts on dirt at 1 1/8 miles, but Poster's distaff line lends stamina. The well-bred Eoin Harty trainee is shipping, stepping up in class, stretching out and trying a new surface. Typically, horses can handle multiple surfaces. However, dirt in the face stops most in their first dirt start. I'll pass.

Trained by Eoin Harty, Poster is perfect in two starts, both on the turf. The colt took a one-mile maiden race gate to wire in his debut and followed that with a three-length victory in a one-mile, high-level allowance race. Poster's debut race produced one next-out winner and two more eventual winners. His second race contained a stakes-placed runner and a next-out stakes winner. Harty is 9% with a 55% in-the-money clip with turf to dirt runners. Harty doesn't tend to swing for the fences with his juveniles; in the last five years, he has sent out only six 2-year-olds to eight graded starts with a 13% win rate and 50% in-the-money clip. Flavien Prat takes over from Rafael Bejarano. Exotics.

4. Studlydoright (9-2)

Studlydoright lost all hope at the start of the Hopeful (G1) when he hit the gate, bumped, then had to steady and finished 13 lengths behind Chance McPatrick. Otherwise, the John Robb trainee has consistently won or placed in five starts and is the only graded-placed runner in the Remsen. By Nyquist, Studlydoright is the first competitor and stakes winner out of the stakes winner and Grade 3-placed turf router, Peach of a Gal. She's a half to veteran handicap horse, Concealed Identity, and Peach of a Gal's half-sister bore multiple graded winning turf miler, Ruby Nell. Typically a closer, Studlydoright showed a new dimension as a pace-presser in the Nashua stakes. He's bred for classic distances, and if he can stay out of trouble, we're looking at a win contender.

Trained by John Robb, Studlydoright has had only one bad race in his already busy career. The two-time stakes winner ran into a good bit of trouble in the Hopeful (G1) and ended up seventh, 13 1/4 lengths behind winner Chancer McPatrick. It was the only time in his six-race career that he finished outside of the exacta. He counts wins in the 5 1/2-furlong Tremont Stakes and the one-mile Nashua Stakes along with runner-up finishes in the six-furlong Sanford (G3) and one-mile Laurel Futurity to his name. Studlydoright is Robb's only 2-year-old graded starter in the last five years, giving him a 0% win rate with a 50% in-the-money clip with that angle. Overall, Robb is 0% with a 40% in-the-money rate in graded stakes in that same time frame. This colt already has a win over the Aqueduct track and posted a career and field best 95 Equibase speed figure when winning the Nashua Stakes last month. Regular rider Xavier Perez retains the mount. Contender.

5. Keewaydin (6-5)

Keewaydin easily dispatched four rivals in his second start, completing seven furlongs in 1:22 and traveling his final furlong in a sparkling 12.10 under a confident hand ride by Dylan Davis. The Chad Brown trainee earned a 92 Brisnet Speed Rating with a 92 late-pace figure, the highest in the Remsen field. By no. 9 First Crop sire Instagrand out of a daughter of Officer, Keewaydin is half to two multiple stakes placed sprinters. Instagrand finished third in all three starts at a mile to 1 1/8 miles and his son Keewaydin has a sprinter/miler oriented pedigree. Unless Dylan Davis can put them to sleep on the front end, I see Keewaydin backing up in the stretch. Exotics.  

Also from the Chad Brown barn, Keewaydin is 2: 1-0-1 lifetime so far. Keewaydin was third on debut, missing the win in the six-furlong maiden event at Saratoga by a head in a blanket finish. Winner Tip Top Thomas finished second in the Champagne (G1) next out, fourth-place finisher Sovereignty broke his maiden in the Street Sense (G3) two starts later and another was a next-out winner. Keewaydin got the win in his second start, a seven-furlong event at the Belmont at Aqueduct meet. None from that race have made subsequent starts and-or won. This will be the colt's first attempt at two turns, and he will be stretching out two furlongs. Brown is 22% with a 62% in-the-money rate with sprint to route runners. Dylan Davis, who was aboard in the colt's last race, gets the return call. Contender.

6. Surfside Moon scratched

7. Gun Trader (30-1)

Gun Trader discovered the Parx winner's circle in his sixth start, completing 1 mile and 70 yards in a leisurely 1:48.53. His gait is painful to watch. He has very high, choppy knee action and may paddle with his right foreleg. By First-Crop sire Tom's d'Etat, Gun Trader is out of a Galileo half-sister to Bodemeister, plus multiple Grade 1 placed Fascinating and Grade 2 winner Under the Stars. Gun Trader's pedigree has strong turf influences, including Galileo and Tom's d'Etat's damsire Giant's Causeway. Additionally, Gun Trader's half-brother won and was placed on Turf and Tapeta but was unplaced on dirt. Their dam is a winning turf miler. Gun Trader could be a different horse on the turf. Pass.

Trained by Uriah St. Lewis, Gun Trader has raced exclusively at Parx and Delaware and is a last-out maiden winner, finally having found the winner's circle in his sixth start. Gun Trader finished fifth in his debut behind third-place finisher Surfside Moon. In his first five starts, Gun Trader pressed the pace, but St. Lewis tried a new tactic with the colt last out and had jockey Francisco Martinez put Gun Trader on the lead. That resulted in a victory, but it did not improve his Equibase speed figures at all. He earned a career second-best 67 for that effort over the Parx track. St. Lewis is 5% wins with a 17% in-the-money clip in graded races over the past five years, per Race Lens. Martinez, who has been aboard only one graded starter in the last year, finishing fifth of nine, retains the mount. Pass.