Head to Head for Southwest, Kentucky Derby prep at Oaklawn

Laurie

Ashley

1. Gaming (2-1)

Gaming ships east after a poor showing in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G1). Despite his 6 1/2-length loss, the Baffert trainee still earned a 92 Brisnet Speed Rating, down from his career-best 105 in the Breeders’ Cup. Gaming tuned up for the Southwest with two recent five-furlong breezes, including a bullet 58.60 seconds in company with the Justify maiden San Saba. Gaming moved easier than his mate and was shaken up near the wire to complete six furlongs. 2018 Del Mar Futurity winner and 2-year-old champ Game Winner is No.11 on the first-crop sire list. Gaming’s dam is the stakes-placed turf sprinter So Stylish. Her half-brother, One Cool Cat, is an Irish multiple Group 1 turf sprinter. Gaming can either set or press the pace, and as the class of the race, he is the one to beat. Contender.

Trained by Bob Baffert, Gaming began his career with two straight wins, including the Del Mar Futurity (G1). But when asked to route around two turns, Gaming has fallen a bit flat. He couldn’t keep pace with stablemate Citizen Bull in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and finished third, beaten by 6 1/2 lengths, as the odds-on favorite in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2). He does own a field second-best 103 Equibase speed figure, which he earned twice. J J Hernandez, who was aboard in Gaming’s debut, reunites with the colt in Hot Springs. Contender.

2. Publisher (12-1)

Still a maiden, Publisher showed life against maidens at Oaklawn in his last start on a muddy track. But he had every shot to pass American Promise in the stretch and couldn’t get closer than 1 1/2 lengths despite being all out. Steve Asmussen’s charge earned a decent 91 Brisnet rating, but his late-pace figures are some of the lowest in the field. American Pharoah’s son is the first foal out of the stakes-winning sprinter, Indian Pride. The mare’s half-sister Tu Endie Wei was Canada’s 2011 champion 2-year-old filly and another half-sister, Biofuel, was multiple graded winner who placed in the CCA Oaks (G1) and Mother Goose (G1). Publisher has hit the board in all four starts. He's willing but needs improvement. Exotics.

Trained by Steve Asmussen, Publisher has never finished out of the trifecta but also has never won a race. Five rivals from Publisher’s first race have become winners, including fellow Southwest entrant Monet’s Magic. Four runners from the colt’s second race have found the winner’s circle, including American Promise, to whom Publisher finished second by just 1 1/2 lengths in his most recent start. So far, nothing has come out of the colt’s third race. Publisher earned a career best 100 last out. Regular rider Erik Asmussen retains the mount, and he and his father have been winning together at a 17% clip over the past year. The younger Asmussen has been a bit cold since returning to the saddle, winning at just a 6% rate with a 35% in the money rate over the last 30 days, according to Race Lens. Use underneath.

3. Monet’s Magic (15-1)

Monet’s Magic put it all together in November, besting maidens by a neck in his fifth start, then showed his fondness for the Oaklawn mud with a half-length victory against winners. He was very green, shifting in to make contact with the pacesetter and turning his head. He also paddles with his left fore. The Ben Colebrook trainee earned a middling 84 speed rating and a low 85 late-pace figure. His final time for a mile was 1:39.97, with a glacial 14.01 final furlong. Good Magic’s son is the third foal out of Rontos Lily, a multiple-stakes winner on dirt and turf. His second dam, Platinum Tiara, was a staple at Florida tracks as a multiple stakes winner, and she placed second in the 2000 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. Monet’s Magic needs further improvement to be a threat to the top horses. Pass.

Trained by Ben Colebrook, Monet's Magic enters with a two-race win streak but is just 6: 2-1-0 overall. In his first three starts, Monet's Magic hit three racing venues in Kentucky, finishing off the board each time. He hit the board in his fourth start before finally winning in his fifth start. He then doubled down to win an optional claimer in his sixth and most recent start. Four from Monet’s Magic’s first race, one from his second, two from his third and three from his fifth, including American Promise, became winners. His highest Equibase speed figure is the 87 he received when breaking his maiden two starts back. Colebrook is just 3% wins with a 29% in-the-money rate in graded stakes over the last five years, according to Race Lens. Francisco Arrieta gets the call. Pass.

4. Tiztastic (10-1)

Tiztastic takes yet another shot at the Kentucky Derby trail after being bested a combined nine lengths in the Street Sense (G3) and Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). By third leading first-crop sire Tiz the Law, Tiztastic is out of an unraced Tapit mare. Tapit also is Tiz the Law's grandsire. Tiztastic’s half-sister Interpolate is a stakes-winning sprinter, while his third dam is multiple Grade 1 winning sprinter Strategic Maneuver. Tiztastic’s speed ratings and late-pace figures reveal a one-paced grinder. Previously, the Steve Asmussen charge scored allowance and listed victories at Kentucky Downs. But his Brisnet ratings haven’t changed much in his last four starts, so perhaps he’ll find a field he can best on dirt. I suspect it won’t be in the Southwest, but he’s capable of hitting the exotics.

Also from the Asmussen barn, Tiztastic is 5: 2-1-1 in his career. Both victories came on the turf, but he’s done well on dirt, too, finishing second in the Street Sense (G3) and third in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). Tiztastic’s debut race, in which he finished fifth, was won by Champagne (G1) and Hopeful (G1) hero Chancer McPatrick, and one of the colt’s wins was in the $1 million Kentucky Downs Juvenile Mile. Keith Asmussen will be aboard for the first time, taking over from Cristian Torres. Use underneath.

5. Render Judgment (15-1)

Trainer Kenny McPeek said he would be scratched because of a foot issue. 

6. Sandman (5-1)

Sandman flew like an eagle in the sky to claim a 1 3/4-length victory over optional-claiming allowance class rivals in his last start, completing a mile in 1:38.71 with a strong 12.23-second final furlong. The Mark Casse trainee earned a career-best 91 speed rating, and his 104 late pace figure tops the Southwest field. The pretty gray colt had a sharp pre-race four-furlong move in 48 seconds in company. He was much the best, reaching out powerfully over the Oaklawn strip without being asked while his workmate was pushed. A $1.2 million OBS March 2-year-old sales purchase, Tapit’s son is the third winner in his immediate family. His half-sister, She Can’t Sing, won the 2022 one-mile Chilukki Stakes. Their dam’s half-sister, Grade 3-placed Zinzay, bore stakes winner and Grade 1-placed turf router Moon Over Miami. The quality third generation includes Group and Grade 1 winners Musical Chimes and Musical Note, who bore 2021 Dubai World Cup hero Mystic Guide. Sandman is a typical son of Tapit. He has his sire’s body style and competitive nature. He has tactical speed and can press the pace or close. If he repeats his last performance, Sandman will be tough. Contender.

Trained by Mark Casse, Sandman was fifth on debut. The winner of that race is now a stakes winner, and two others aside from Sandman have subsequently become winners. He won at second asking, and runner-up Innovator just ran third in the Lecomte (G3), and third-place finisher Aviator Gui missed the Remsen (G2) win by just a nose. Sandman then ran fifth in the Iroquois (G3) and third in the Street Sense (G3) before closing out his juvenile campaign with a victory in an optional claimer here at Oaklawn. He earned a career-high 97 Equibase speed figure for that effort. Casse ships to win and is 26% wins with a 52% in-the-money rate at Oaklawn over the past five years, according to Race Lens. Cristian Torres has the return call. Contender.

7. Patch Adams (5-2)

Patch Adams graduated in his second start with a tremendous ten-length victory at Churchill. He vied through swift fractions of 22.51, 45.14 and 1:08.60 before drawing off and completing seven furlongs in 1:20.77, just .33 seconds off Groupie Doll’s 1:20.44 track record set in 2012. The Brad Cox trainee was geared down in the final stages yet still got his final furlong in 12.17 and earned a 102 Brisnet rating. Patch Adams had two sharp five-furlong works at Payson Park. He paired with recent Louisiana Stakes (G3) victor Hit Show on January 12, getting the distance in 1:01.20. The pair moved as a team with little separating them. Patch Adams surged slightly ahead near the wire and neither gave an inch on the gallop out. Last week, Patch Adams paired with maiden winner Tappan Street and was timed in 1:00.20 for a similar breeze. Into Mischief’s son is the first competitor out of Well Humored, a stakes winner at 1 1/16 miles. Her full brother Muqtser is a multiple graded-placed turf router, and half-brother American Patriot won the Maker’s Mark Mile (G1) and set a track record on the Delaware turf in the 1 1/8-mile Kent (G3). The extended family includes multiple Grade 1 heroes, Cyberknife and Well Armed. This Brad Cox trainee had three months to recover from his tremendous effort, and his breezes are the buzz at Payson Park. Contender.

Trained by Brad Cox, Patch Adams was third in his unveiling, finishing just 1 1/2 lengths behind the winner. Along with Patch Adams, two from that race have found the winner’s circle. The colt then obliterated eleven rivals in his second start, rocketing off to a 10 1/2-length victory while earning a field best 110 Equibase speed figure. That’s a huge number, but it did come in a sprint. Most in that field have not made subsequent starts, but the ones that have done so have not found the winners’ circle. Cox is 38% wins with a 64% in-the-money rate with sprint-to-route runners. Flavien Prat takes over from regular jockey Florent Geroux, who will be at Gulfstream Park. Contender.

8. American Promise (6-1)

American Promise does his best work on the lead. He’s been a speed-fade type in five of six starts but found a field he could best last time out, which included Publisher. The D. Wayne Lukas trainee earned a career-best 92 rating, but his late-pace figures are firmly stuck in the 80s. Justify’s son is a half to Grade 2 heroine Hoosier Philly, who won stakes from a mile to 1 1/16 miles and was second in the 1 1/8 mile Black-Eyed Susan (G2). Their dam’s half-sister, Ulele, is also placed in the Black-Eyed Susan (G2). American Promise showed a fondness for Oaklawn Park, but he’ll contend with other speed types. Exotics.

Trained by D. Wayne Lukas, American Promise is a last out maiden winner. Overall, the colt is 6: 1-1-1. He debuted in the same race as Tiztastic, which was won by dual grade one winner Chancer McPatrick. He was eighth to Publisher’s third in his third race, second behind Render Judgment in his fourth race, and fourth to winner Monet’s Magic in his fifth race. He did turn the tables on Publisher, beating him by 1 1/2 lengths last out. He received a 102 Equibase speed figure for his gate to wire victory. That victory came over the Oaklawn track. The Coach is sticking with apprentice Tyler Bacon, whom he has been impressed by according to a Daily Racing Form article by Mary Rampellini. The youngster is multiple stakes placed, but American Promise is by far his biggest opportunity. Morning line odds of 6-1 aren’t exactly long, but I still see this colt as a live long-shot play based on his connections.

9. Bon Temps (30-1)

Still a maiden, Bon Temps was ambitiously placed in the Smarty Jones Stakes. He was stuck in traffic for much of the way and had to alter course but finished 3/4 a length behind the second and third-place finishers. His speed rating was a poor 76, yet Bon Temps earned a decent 93 late-pace figure. Lukas gave Bon Temps a bullet five-furlong over a muddy Oaklawn surface in company with the 1.2 million Keeneland September Yearling purchase Princess Aliyah, who is a maiden after three starts. They worked in tandem, little separating them. However, Bon Temps was under a hold while the filly was urged. Bravazo’s son is out of the hard-knocking multiple stakes-winning sprinter Winning Image. Bon Temps is half to stakes placed sprinters Dark Timber and Foreign Protocol. His extended pedigree includes Kentucky Oaks-winning half-sisters Quaze Quilt and Susan’s Girl. The latter bore multiple Grade 1 winner and sire Copelan. Long-shot exotics.

Also from the Lukas barn, Bon Temps is still a maiden. He hasn’t hit the board in three career starts, losing them by a combined 23 1/2 lengths. He enters off a fourth-place finish in the Smarty Jones Stakes, giving him a three-week turnaround. Nik Juarez will be his fourth jockey in as many starts, and he has been ice cold over the last 30 days, with zero wins from 17 starts and a 6% in-the-money rate. Pass.

10. Speed King (15-1)

Speed King is living up to his name as a pacesetter with plenty of speed. After graduating at first asking, he stretched out in the Springboard Mile. After an early speed duel, Speed King pulled away in the stretch. He looked like a winner, albeit a tired one, but was nailed late by Coal Battle. The Ron Moquett trainee finished a half-length behind in second but five lengths in front of the third-place finisher and recorded a 91 Brisnet Speed Rating. However, after setting triple digits for his early pace, received an 80 late-pace figure. Coal Battle returned to dominate the Smarty Jones Stakes by four lengths. The pretty gray colt posted a pre-race four-furlong bullet in 47-flat. By no. 5-ranked first-crop sire Volatile, Speed King is the fourth competitor out of a winning daughter of Corinthian. This family is distance-challenged. None of Speed King’s half-siblings have won beyond a mile, and only one was successful once in multiple attempts at 1 1/16 miles on turf. Grade 1-winning miler Mor Spirit and champion 3-year-old filly Stellar Wind are part of the extended family. Speed King looks like a sprinter-miler, and only one of Volatile’s eight offspring who ran past a mile won, and that was against maidens at Turfway. Pass.

Trained by Ron Moquett, Speed King enters off a second-place finish in the Remington Springboard Mile. Winner Coal Battle won the Smarty Jones Stakes in his next start. The Volatile colt was a gate-to-wire debut winner at Churchill Downs as a 23-1 outsider. Two from that race have become winners since then. Speed King earned a 93 Equibase speed figure in his debut and a 95 in the Springboard Mile, which are solid numbers but not enough to crack the top five figures in this field. Moquett is just 7% wins with a 31% in-the-money rate in graded stakes over the past five years, according to Race Lens. Rafael Bejarano has the return call. Pass.