Head to Head: Can Sovereignty be upset in the Travers?

LAURIE

ASHLEY

1. Magnitude (2-1)

A consistent sort, Magnitude finished worse than fourth only twice, both times over off tracks. Although a bone chip derailed him from the Kentucky Derby trail, Magnitude returned to dominate the Iowa Derby by 9 1/4 lengths. He earned a lofty 104 Brisnet Speed Rating, one of three colts in the Travers with a triple-digit figure. By a sire of a Travers winner, Magnitude should handle 1 1/4 miles. His second dam, Octave, captured the Mother Goose and CCA Oaks, both Grade 1’s, and among Octave’s many accomplishments, she was second in the 2006 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and Kentucky Oaks. The Steve Asmussen trainee was raring to go in his Aug. 9 breeze in company with Shattuck, a 4-year-old claimer. Magnitude started a length back and stayed with his partner through the stretch until his rider shook the reins. Then Magnitude was off like Secretariat and quickly opened up by double-digit lengths. He was timed in 1:1.07 for five furlongs. Magnitude is a need-the-lead type and might have early company from his next-door neighbor, Bracket Buster. But Magnitude has a high cruising speed and can sustain his speed. Contender. 

Trained by Steve Asmussen, Magnitude dominated the Iowa Derby by 9 1/4 lengths off a five-month layoff. After   an identical performance in the Risen Star (G2) as a 43-1 outsider, Magnitude needed surgery for a chip in his left front ankle. Both the procedure and the recovery went smoothly, and based on his performance at Prairie Meadows, the colt hasn’t missed a beat. Magnitude received a 105 Beyer Speed Figure from Daily Racing Form for the Iowa Derby and a 108 Beyer for the Risen Star (G2), putting him in a tie for second and fifth for best Beyer speed figures for any 3-year-old. Asmussen has been doing well at Saratoga this year with a 26% win and 54% in-the-money clip in the last six months. Ben Curtis, who was aboard for Magnitude’s last two races, has the return call. Distance could be a question, but I’ve liked this colt since late last year. Contender.

2. Bracket Buster (20-1)

His distant fourth-place finish in the Haskell (G1) proved Bracket Buster is a cut below the best in the 3-year-old colt division. Most of Vekoma’s offspring have distance limitations beyond 1 1/16 miles. Bracket Buster’s immediate female family is speed-oriented, and he mght be better suited as a sprinter-miler. Pass.

Trained by Vicki Oliver, Bracket Buster was last seen finishing fourth in the Haskell (G1). This colt has been a useful sort for me as I had him on ticket in both the Lexington (G3, second at 25-1 odds) and the Haskell (G1, fourth at 27-1 odds). Aside from those two races, he was seventh in the slop in a 1 1/16-mile optional claimer and won a muddy edition of the Pegasus Stakes at Monmouth by seven lengths. Oliver is winless at Saratoga this year, but she’s saddled only one starter at the historic track so far in 2025. She is also 0% wins with an 8% in-the-money clip in graded stakes over the last year, according to Race Lens. Luis Saez gets the mount. Use underneath.

3. Strategic Focus (6-1)

Strategic Focus is bred for classic distances, being by Gun Runner out of a Curlin mare. But after three starts, Strategic Focus is still trying to figure out how to get out of the gate and switch leads in the stretch. He had these problems in his last two starts, and it cost him in the Curlin Stakes. So to keep him focusing strategically, he’ll get a new set of blinkers for the Travers. Wearing the new equipment, he had a recent five-furlong breeze in company with the older maiden, Duration. Strategic Focus switches leads in morning works with and without blinkers. Yet he appeared to concentrate better with them. He has an outsider’s chance to pull off the upset, but an exotics placing is more likely.

Trained by Chad Brown, Strategic Focus debuted in April, besting elders in a mile maiden race at Aqueduct. The runner-up from that race was a next-out winner, and although no others from that field have won, a couple have hit the board in each subsequent start. Strategic Focus crossed the wire first in his second start but was disqualified to second after shying in a couple of times in the stretch. He also was late to change leads. Most recently, Strategic Focus was third in the Curlin Stakes. He had the lead at the top of the stretch but was denied at the wire by a half-length by Chancer McPatrick and So Sandy. Brown adds blinkers to the colt’s equipment and is 25% wins with a 45% in-the-money rate with the first-time blinkers angle. Flavien Prat has the return call. Exotics.

4. Sovereignty (2-5)

What can I write about Sovereignty that hasn’t already been said? The leading 3-year-old improves with each race, and unless something untoward happens, it’s Saratoga, after all, he’s our winner. Someone buy me a Hattie's chicken dinner, please.

Trained by Bill Mott, not much needs to be said about Sovereignty. The winner of two-thirds of the Triple Crown enters on a three-race win streak, with his last two races being at Saratoga. He also is undefeated at 1 1/4 miles. Regular jockey Junior Alvarado will be aboard. The one to beat.

5. McAfee (20-1)

I had high hopes for McAfee. Thorpedo Anna’s little brother struggles against Grade 2 and Grade 3 types at 1 1/8 miles and has lost ground in all starts beyond a mile. Race Lens shows Cloud Computing’s offspring have three wins in 20 starts at 1 1/8 miles and beyond, but 15% finish second or third. Let’s see McAfee take on a lesser class of sprinters or milers to earn a black-type victory. Pass. 

Trained by Rick Dutrow Jr. and the half-brother to champion Thorpedo Anna, McAfee came with lofty expectations. Unfortunately, he hasn’t quite lived up to our expectations. He’s 7: 1-3-1 lifetime and was second in the Peter Pan (G3), third in the Ohio Derby (G3) and second in the West Virginia Derby (G3) in his last three starts. Dutrow has 14% wins and 46% in the money in graded stakes since returning to the racing community. He has 8% wins with a 39% in-the-money strike rate at Saratoga in 2025, according to Race Lens. John Velazquez, who was aboard the colt in his last three starts, has the call. Pass.