Head to Head: Who will pass the Test at Saratoga?

Laurie

Ashley

1. Ragtime (4-1)

The promising, undefeated Ragtime began her career just two months ago with a professional 3 3/4 length victory at Saratoga over a full field of 11 other maidens, completing seven furlongs in 1:23.24 with a sharp 12.34-second final furlong. In her first start facing more experienced and older winners, the Bill Mott trainee ran away from the field by 4 1/2 lengths without being asked, timed in 1:23.18 for seven furlongs with an easy 12.53 final furlong. Union Rags’s daughter is out of the Grade 2-winning sprinter and black-type producer Burmilla. Ragtime’s second dam Nannerel was a multiple graded-winning sprinter-miler, and multiple Grade 1 placed, so there’s plenty of class in this filly’s family. Ragtime’s Brisnet Speed Rating improved to a 99, and she owns a pair of triple-digit late-pace ratings. Contender.

Trained by Bill Mott, Ragtime is 2-for-2 in her career, with both starts at Saratoga. She debuted a winner in a seven-furlong maiden event for 3-year-olds and up and won it by 3 3/4 lengths. Despite the carded conditions, there were no older runners in the field. One from that field was a next-out winner with a sharp drop in class and a move to Horseshoe Indianapolis. Three others hit the board next out at Saratoga with a fourth filly rounding out the superfecta in her next start, also at Saratoga. Ragtime’s second race also was seven furlongs and carded for 3-year-olds and upward. Four of six entrants were older runners, but it didn’t faze Ragtime, who won by an eased 4 1/4 lengths. Ragtime earned a 92 Brisnet Speed Rating for her debut and a 99 for her allowance win. The rail has been winning at a 22% clip. Regular rider Junior Alvarado has the mount. Contender.

2. Kilwin (6-1)

Kilwin made a successful transfer to dirt in the seven-furlong Leslie's Lady Overnight Stakes at Churchill, surprising the favorite, Grade 1-placed Vodka with a Twist, by 1 1/4 lengths under an aggressive hand ride. Kilwin pressed the pace, and dirt in her face wasn’t a bother as she completed seven furlongs in 1:21.61 with a 12.31 final furlong. She recorded a career-high 95 Brisnet rating with a 100 late-pace figure, second highest in the Test field. Conditioned by Rusty Arnold, Kilwin is the third black-type earner out of Spanish Star, who is an unraced half-sister to Belmont Stakes hero Sir Winston. Kilwin took a solo spin around Saratoga’s dirt course, completing four furlongs in 49.06. She handled the surface well in a routine maintenance drill, without excessive leg movement. Exotics.

Trained by Rusty Arnold, Kilwin began her career on turf, putting together a 5: 2-1-0 record on that surface, including winning the Untapable Stakes and finishing second in the Mamzelle (G3). Arnold switched the filly to dirt for the Leslie’s Lady Overnight Stakes last out after three straight turf losses, and Kilwin brought home the win by 1 1/4 lengths. She beat multiple Grade 1-placed and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies runner-up Vodka With a Twist, along with a graded winner, a graded-stakes-placed runner, and two stakes winners. Kilwin received a 95 Brisnet Speed Rating for her lone dirt start and win. Jose Ortiz replaces Edgar Morales. Exotics.

3. Look Forward (8-1)

Look Forward stated that she’s a sprinter with her 1 1/4-length victory in the Eight Belles (G2). She’s undefeated at seven furlongs. Yes, she held on by a short neck for second place over Scottish Lassie in the Acorn (G1), but Look Forward had the better trip through slow fractions. Michael McCarthy gave Look Forward a pre-race bullet five-furlong breeze in 58.60 at Del Mar, but she was passed by the Doug O’Neill-trained Allowance class runner Corporal Violette. Look Forward’s final furlongs for the Test distance are slow and she is an upright mover, not stretching her neck out when she runs. This is usually related to a shorter shoulder angle. Look Forward’s speed ratings are improving, but her late-pace figures are some of the Test’s lowest. On the plus side, she’s a road warrior, is undefeated at seven furlongs and finished between two very good fillies in the Acorn, which is a traditional Test prep. Live long shot.

Trained by Michael McCarthy, Look Forward has done her best work at seven furlongs, winning the Santa Ynez and the Eight Belles (G2). Despite being best at shorter distances, Look Forward also has second-place finishes in the 1 1/16-mile Starlet (G2) and the 1 1/8-mile Acorn. Look Forward is the consummate road warrior with all seven career starts coming at seven tracks. This will be the first time she’s ever run back on the same track, coming in off that second-place finish in the Acorn. The Acorn form has so far been excellent. Third-place finisher Scottish Lassie demolished the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) field by 15 1/2 lengths, and last-place finisher Quickick got up by a nose in the Iowa Oaks. Look Forward has two bad races, the Honeybee (G3) and the Ashland (G1), but she had trouble at the start in both. Umberto Rispoli has the mount. Live long shot.

4. Cash Call (5-1)

Cash Call brings her three-race win streak to Saratoga and takes on more accomplished fillies. She’s never been tested at seven furlongs but has won at six and at 1 1/16 miles. A daughter of the second-ranked second-crop sire McKinzie, Cash Call is a half-sister to Strategic Dreams, a multiple stakes winner at seven furlongs. Their dam’s half-brother, Express Tour, captured the UAE Derby (G3) over Street Cry and multiple Grade 1-winning handicap veteran Lido Palace, so there’s back class in her pedigree. The Bob Baffert trainee’s late-pace figures are in the high 90s, and she had a sharp pre-race five-furlong work in 59.40. Exotics.

Trained by Bob Baffert, Cash Call is 5: 3-1-1 lifetime and enters on a three-race win streak, culminating with the Summertime Oaks (G3). Cash Call hasn’t beaten much of anything out west, but she does own a 100 Brisnet Speed Rating from her maiden-breaking win three starts back. Baffert has a 19% win rate with a 46% in-the-money clip when shipping into Saratoga over the last five years. Regular rider J.J. Hernandez appears to be remaining in California, so Flavien Prat will have the mount for the first time. Exotics.

5. Me and Molly McGee (8-1)

In her second start, the speedy Me and Molly McGee showed she knows how to run free, flying an opening quarter in a crisp 21 flat, ears up and doing it easy. She never let up, clocking a half in 44.58 and five furlongs in 56.58 before cruising through the wire in 1:08.93 with a 12.35 final furlong under a hand ride. Last out, in a Churchill Downs allowance event against older horses, Me and Molly McGee dueled through nearly identical fractions, getting the half in 44.51 and five furlongs in 56.19 before she pulled away from her stakes-placed rival Artisma to stop the clock for six furlongs in 1:08.44, closing with a sharp 12.25 final eighth. By leading second-crop sire Vekoma, Me and Molly McGee is the first foal out of Molly McGee, a Quality Road mare. The mare’s half-brother Woodland Walk is a stakes-placed veteran of 56 races, and multiple Grade 1 winner and Classic runner-up Aptitude is part of the family. The Peter Eurton trainee’s Brisnet figures have improved in each start, and I don’t expect her to be singing the blues in this class and stamina test. Contender.

Trained by Peter Eurton, Me and Molly McGee is 3: 2-1-0 lifetime. She was second on debut against her own age group, then won at second asking. That field produced four next-out winners, including Me and Molly McGee, who beat a field of older winners in her third start. That field included Santa Ynez runner-up Artisma. Eurton hasn’t had a starter at Saratoga in at least five years and has 0% wins with a 48% in-the-money clip in graded stakes over the last year, per Race Lens. Frankie Dettori has the call. Pass.

6. Echo Sound (9-5)

The only flaw on Echo Sound’s record is a troubled second place finish in last year’s Fern Creek Stakes, where she broke a step slow from the rail and was stuck in a traffic jam much of the way. The Rusty Arnold trainee reeled off a pair of Grade 3 victories in the Miss Preakness and Victory Ride Stakes this year, with improved Brisnet ratings. Echo Sound has tactical speed and could benefit from a pace meltdown. Contender.

Also from the Arnold barn, Echo Sound has been defeated just once in six starts, losing by 2 1/2 lengths to Impulse Buy in the Fern Creek Stakes to close out her juvenile campaign. She enters off a career- and field-best 105 Brisnet Speed Rating for her 4 1/4-length victory over Beauty Reigns in the Victory Ride (G3). Seven furlongs will be new for her as she’s previously maxed out at 6 1/2 furlongs, which she’s 2: 1-1-0 at. But she didn’t have her preferred trip during her loss, racing off the pace in sixth rather than pressing the pace from second or third. Regular rider Luis Saez has the call. Contender.

7. Artisma (20-1)

In her second start, Artisma just missed the win photo to Look Forward, then couldn’t match Me and Molly McGee’s speed in her third, although Artisma was making her seasonal debt and had been away from the races for six months. The Richard Balas trainee could improve in her second start off the layoff, but her late-pace figures are on the low side, and she’ll have to show further improvement to be a factor in the Test. Pass.

Trained by Richard Baltas, Artisma is the field long shot despite being 3: 1-2-0 lifetime. She was a debut winner but lost by a head to Look Forward in the Santa Ynez and by two lengths to Me and Molly McGee in an allowance race. Artisma’s speed figures are mediocre by comparison to the rest of the field. Baltas has sent only five starters to Saratoga over the last five years and has achieved a 20% win rate with a 40% in-the-money clip. John Velazquez has the mount for the first time. Pass.

8. Beauty Reigns (6-1)

Beauty Reigns has finished out of the money only twice in her career, when asked to run two turns. The Bill Mott trainee had an excuse in the Victory Ride (G3) when facing three rivals. She broke a step slow from post 1, steadied behind rivals, then was boxed in until mid-stretch while Echo Sound pulled away. Beauty Reigns is the first foal out the unraced Tapit mare Ilsa. The second dam, Sweet Way, is a 3/4 sister to champion 2-year-old Sweet Catomine and Breeders’ Cup Distaff heroine Life is Sweet. Despite never finishing off the board, Beauty Reigns has won only twice, both at 6 1/2 furlongs, so she might handle the extra distance. Exotics.

Also from the Mott barn, Beauty Reigns enters off a second-place effort to Echo Sound in the Victory Ride (G3). Overall, she’s 7: 2-2-1 and 2: 0-1-1 at Saratoga. Her two off-the-board finishes came in races longer than 6 1/2 furlongs. Her best Brisnet Speed Rating, the 98 she received for the Victory Ride (G3), is on par with the best in this race. I don’t think she’ll win this, but she could get a piece of the pie. Irad Ortiz Jr. has the mount. Exotics.