Head to Head: Distance is the test in Hollywood Gold Cup

Laurie

Ashley

1. Tarantino

Tarantino does his best work on the lead, so the rail is a good spot for him. His Brisnet E2 figures are generally in the 100 range, showing he expends most of his energy mid-race, and his late-pace figures are in the 70s and 80s. By Pioneerof the Nile with Seeking the Gold and Seattle Slew as his first two damsires, Tarantino is bred to handle classic distances. But Tarantino likes to buddy up with other horses. So if he’s fighting with a rival and another, faster rival passes, Tarantino will run with that one. This inglourious basterd is a polite horse, letting others go first and winning only against lesser foes. Lower exotics.

Trained by Peter Eurton, Tarantino runs well as long as he stays in California, though he did run a good second in the Essex Handicap (G3) at Oaklawn. He followed that up with a dismal showing in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2), finishing seventh, beaten by 33 1/4 lengths. He’s 6: 1-2-3 at Santa Anita but has never tried the 1 1/4-mile distance. Eurton is winless with a 42% in-the-money rate in graded stakes during the last year, according to Race Lens. J.J. Hernandez takes over from regular rider Edwin Maldonado. I’d probably pass on this gelding if it were any other track besides Santa Anita, but since we’re here, I'll go with exotics.

2. Packs a Wahlop

Packs a Wahlop lost the head bob in his last two heartbreaking decisions on the lawn. In his first attempt at 1 1/4 miles, the John Sadler trainee faced San Luis Rey (G3) winner Atitlan in the Charles Whittingham (G2) and gave that one all he could handle. Now a 5-year-old, Packs a Wahlop hopes to transfer his turf form to dirt, because there aren’t any turf-route stakes on the weekend card. Like Tarantino, this pretty gray horse’s E2 figures are in the 100s and his late pace figures are in the 70s and 80s. Packs a Wahlop faces other speed types, and his dirt form hasn’t held up. Pass.

Trained by John Sadler, Packs a Wahlop returns to dirt for the first time since January 2023. It’s an interesting move, considering this gelding is coming off a head loss in the Charles Whittingham (G2). He’s 4: 0-1-0 on dirt, 1: 0-0-0 at Santa Anita, and untried at the distance on dirt. Sadler is 3% wins with a 55% in-the-money clip in graded stakes over the last year. Reylu Gutierrez has the return call. Pass.

3. Midnight Mammoth

Midnight Mammoth’s claim to fame was a runaway 10-length victory in the 1 1/2-mile Cougar II (G3) last year. He didn’t beat much as the  lone speed. None of his four rivals remember the last time they finished in the money. Midnight Mammoth found his way back to the winner’s circle in April after beating up on optional claimers, including Arrowthegreat. He’s been no threat in graded stakes this year and appears up against it. Pass.

Trained by Craig Dollase, Midnight Mammoth enters off a 5 1/2-length victory in an optional claimer. Last year, the gelding was the 10 1/4-length upset winner of the Cougar II, his only graded-stakes victory from six attempts. He also has hit the board only one other time in graded company, making for a 6: 1-0-1 record. I anticipate Midnight Mammoth going to the lead and fading like he’s done in most other graded starts. Dollase is 20% wins with a 20% in-the-money clip in graded stakes during the past year, but if you stretch that time frame to five years, then he’s 15% wins with a 31% in-the-money clip. Jockey Armando Ayuso has only two graded victories, one with Midnight Mammoth. Exotics.

4. Extensive

Extensive is a ray of light in an otherwise nondescript race for older horses. The youngster in the field is a 4-year-old with only four starts under his girth. The Michael McCarthy trainee captured his last two outings, a maiden and an optional claimer. By City of Light, out of the stakes-winning sprinter Clothes Fall Off, out of stakes-winning sprinter Tequilas Dayjur, Extensive’s pedigree is in the miler to middle-distance range. Extensive showed tactical speed in his last start, settling in fifth place before sliding up the rail to take the lead. His Brisnet ratings have climbed from 87 to 99, and his 96 late pace rating is the field’s highest. Contender.

Trained by Michael McCarthy, 4-year-old Extensive is new on the scene. He debuted on Dec. 8, 2024, and has put together a 4: 2-1-1 record, with his two wins coming in his most recent starts. His Equibase speed figures have improved with each start, culminating with a 106 in his last start. His debut hasn’t produced much of anything, but his second race turned out three other next-out winners. His third race produced one next-out winner on the turf, and his fourth race included a stakes winner and a graded-stakes-placed runner. Flavien Prat takes over from Kyle Frey. Exotics.

5. Skippylongstocking

Fan favorite Skippylongstocking takes his game on the road again, seeking a soft landing in California. But the 6-year-old will face an entire field of speed types just like him. The Saffie Joseph Jr. trainee is 0-for-2 at 1 1/4 miles, yet that was against Grade 1 types in the Pegasus World Cup. Now he's back to try again against lesser types. Skippylongstocking gets a class break, but he must avoid an early duel to get his best shot. Contender.

Trained by Saffie Joseph Jr., Skippylongstocking is the class of the field. He’s an eight-time graded-stakes winner with earnings of $3.5 million plus. Although he’s still searching for that elusive Grade 1 win, he has hit the board four times at the highest level, including running third in the 2022 Belmont and third to champions Cody’s Wish and National Treasure in the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. He owns a field-best 116 Equibase speed figure from last year’s win in the Oaklawn Handicap and enters off a third-place effort in this year’s Oaklawn Handicap. This will be the 6-year-old’s audition for this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic as Joseph told BloodHorse that the connections always wanted to try him at 10 panels and going to the Classic is one of the reasons they’re trying this race. Irad Ortiz Jr. has the return call from the Oaklawn Handicap. Contender.

6. Il Bellator

Draw a line through Il Bellator's latest turf experiment and we have an optional-claiming type who hasn’t come close to hitting the board in stakes at Emerald Downs. He’s never won beyond a mile and is yet another need-the-lead type. Pass.

Trained by Jose Bautista, Il Bellator enters off a fifth-place finish in the American (G3). He’s bounced between surfaces throughout his career, but his 15: 5-2-2 vs. his 7: 0-2-1 shows that he prefers dirt. Il Bellator is a stakes winner but hasn’t hit the board in a stakes since August 2023. Bautista has never won a graded stakes, and jockey Geovanni Franco hasn’t won a graded stakes since 2023. Pass.

7. Arrowthegreat

Arrowthegreat was thrown into last year’s Gold Cup in his first start off a layoff and clearly wasn’t ready for the outing. Since then, he’s been lightly raced with time between races and getting beat up in the optional-claiming ranks, indicating possible niggling health issues. But a six-length victory at Turf Paradise might have given this 5-year-old a confidence boost. He closed in his next start to finish a best-of-the-rest second behind Midnight Mammoth. By Arrogate, out of a daughter of Arch and descended from the Phipps family bloodlines of Point of Entry and Pine Island, Arrowthegreat is bred to love classic distances. The Dan Blacker trainee can press the pace and could surprise if everyone else gets leg weary. Live long shot.

Trained by Dan Blacker, Arrowthegreat was most recently the best of the rest against Midnight Mammoth in an optional claimer. This 5-year-old gelding tried this race last year, finishing sixth, beaten by 32 1/4 lengths. In fact, Arrowthegreat lost his three previous graded attempts by a combined 100 3/4 lengths. Blacker is 43% wins with a 43% in-the-money rate in graded stakes during the past year, but if you stretch it to five years, those numbers become 17% and 39%. Tiago Josue Pereira has the call. Pass.