Head to Head: Deep talent in Saratoga's Belmont Oaks

Laurie

Ashley

1. Warming

The most lightly raced filly in the field with three starts under her girth, Warming captured her debut but didn’t return to the races until a closing finish in the Take The A Train Stakes. She obviously needed the start as she finished fifth. Warming gave a heart-pounding performance in her latest start, making a late run to grab the victory by a neck in a 1 1/16-mile optional claiming event at Delaware. The Graham Motion trainee was timed in 1:43.54 with a quick 6.04-second final half-furlong. Her Brisnet Speed Rating decreased six points in her second start, and she returns 22 days later. On a positive note, she should love the extra distance. Warming is taking on more experienced graded winners and needs to improve to be a factor. Pass.

Trained by Graham Motion, Warming enters off a neck victory in a 1 1/16-mile optional claimer at Delaware Park. Two starts back, she was fifth in the six-furlong Take The A Train Stakes. It was a better effort than it sounds, as it was a blanket finish that saw the top five cross the wire within 3/4 length of each other. Warming also was forced to alter course twice in the stretch. Her numbers aren’t the best, but she’s a game filly with a good turn of foot. She does come in on a three-week turnaround, however, and Motion is 13% wins with a 45% in-the-money rate with that angle. Manny Franco has the call. Pass.

2. Opulent Restraint

Opulent Restraint is two bumps and a neck from being undefeated. In her first start as a 3-year-old, the pretty gray filly broke in and bumped a rival. She showed early interest before fading to fourth behind Nitrogen. The Chad Brown trainee made the pace in the one-mile Memories of Silver. She fought down the lane and came back on the inside, losing by a neck, but besting Virgin Colada by 1 1/2 lengths. Opulent Restraint’s speed ratings have risen in each start, topping out at 91. However, her late-pace figures are at the lower end of the Oaks scale. Pass.

Trained by Chad Brown, Opulent Restraint was last seen finishing second by a neck and 1 1/2 lengths ahead of Virgin Colada in the Memories of Silver Stakes. She broke her maiden in her second start at Saratoga and closed out her juvenile year with a nose victory in the Chelsey Flower Stakes. She did face undefeated Nitrogen earlier this year in the Florida Oaks (G3), finishing fourth after encountering trouble in the race. Joel Rosario has the mount. Exotics.

3. Totally Justified

In her second start off the layoff in the Regret Stakes (G3), Totally Justified looked like the winner until late stretch when Fionn nipped her on the wire by a half-length. That was the second time her rival beat her. The half-sister to multiple Grade 2 turf router Masteroffoxhounds has finished behind Nitrogen and May Day Ready but has beaten Virgin Colada. Still, the Rusty Arnold trainee should improve in her second start off the layoff and is worth an exotics look.  

Trained by Rusty Arnold, Totally Justified enters off a half-length loss to Fionn in the Regret (G3). She’s been hit or miss throughout her career. She also has a nose loss to May Day Ready in the Jessamine (G2) back in October, but then was eighth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf and fifth in the Appalachian (G2). Along with Fionn and May Day Ready, Nitrogen has also outfinished this filly. Luis Saez gets the return call. Pass.

4. Virgin Colada

Virgin Colada’s only off-the-board performance was a troubled finish in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. In her seasonal debut, she made a late move in the Memories of Silver Stakes but ran out of real estate, finishing 1 1/2 lengths behind stablemate Opulent Restraint. Virgin Colada earned a career-best 90 speed rating and can improve off the layoff. Her dam is a half-sister to 2018 Belmont Derby hero Catholic Boy. Exotics.

Also from the Chad Brown barn, Virgin Colada was most recently third in the Memories of Silver Stakes. She’s Grade 2 placed via a runner-up effort in the Miss Grillo back in October, but then turned around and ran 13th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. The Memories of Silver was her first start of the year, so she has plenty of room to improve here. Brown has 19% wins with a 62% in-the-money clip with runners second off the layoff. Irad Ortiz Jr. takes over from Flavien Prat. Exotics.

5. Fionn

Fionn gets a chance to avenge her loss to Nitrogen, who marred Fionn’s chances of a four-race win streak by 3 1/2 lengths in the Appalachian Stakes (G2). The Brad Cox trainee resumed her winning ways in the Regret Stakes, ruining Totally Justified’s day. Fionn’s Brisnet ratings have improved in every outing, and her 90 late pace figure is the field’s second-highest. Contender.

Trained by Brad Cox, Fionn has never been out of the trifecta in her career. She enters off a victory in the Regret (G3) and also counts a win in the Allen Black Cat LaCombe Memorial Stakes to her name. She gave a valiant effort against Nitrogen in the Appalachian (G2) but could not run that one down. Flavien Prat takes over from Florent Geroux. Contender.

6. May Day Ready

Just like her dam Nemoralia, who was third in the Juvenile Fillies Turf, May Day Ready was one of last year’s best 2-year-old turf fillies; her only U.S.-based loss was by 1 1/2 lengths second to Lake Victoria in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf after a troubled trip. After a disastrous trip to Japan, where she placed 13th in the Hanshin Juvenile Fillies (G1), May Day Ready took a vacation before appearing in the off-the-turf Wonder Again (G3) against Nitrogen, whom she beat in the Juvenile Fillies. May Day Ready tried her best but got a mud bath, finishing 25 lengths behind Nitrogen. Back on the lawn, May Day Ready is set to prove she’s just as good at 3 as she was at 2. Contender.

Trained by Joseph Lee, May Day Ready began her career with three straight wins, including the Kentucky Downs Juvenile Fillies and the Jessamine (G2). She was also an excellent second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. Lee shipped her to Japan for the Hanshin Juvenile Fillies (G1) to close out her 2-year-old campaign, but she could only muster 13th of 18, beaten by eight lengths. She made her 2025 debut June 7 in the Wonder Again, which was taken off the turf and run in the slop. She finished last of three, beaten 25 1/2 lengths by Nitrogen. I’ll put a line through that effort because of the six-month layoff and the surface change. Lee has 21% wins with a 43% in-the-money clip with runners second off the layoff in the last five years. Regular jock Frankie Dettori has the call. Contender.

7. Nitrogen

The second stakes winner in her immediate family, Nitrogen seeks her sixth consecutive victory in the Belmont Oaks. She’s gotten the better of most of the field, and her 99 late pace figure is 10 points higher than the rest of the field. Contender.

Trained by Mark Casse, Nitrogen enters on a five-race win streak. That streak includes the off-the-turf Wonder Again, which was contested in the slop. Nitrogen is an interesting filly in that she didn’t break her maiden until Jan. 4 in the Ginger Brew Stakes, but she was third in the Natalma (G1) and also third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. Regular jockey Jose Ortiz has the call. The one to beat.