Head to Head: Split opinions on Gulfstream's Ky. Derby prep

Laurie

Ashley

1. Neoequos (10-1)

Neoequos performed adequately in his first start around two turns and in open company in the Fountain of Youth (G2). He set the early pace but was overtaken in mid-stretch by River Thames and then Sovereignty. Saffie Joseph Jr.'s charge improved his Brisnet Speed Rating by four points to 96, but his last two late-pace figures are in the high 80s. Neoequos was asked to rate in his last two works. He rated kindly and passed under a hand ride both times. In his second-to-last five-furlong breeze in 58.9 seconds, Neoequos and his mate had to go around a horse in front. Neoequos took it in stride. He took aim and gained ground on the horse in front of them before being shut down for the gallop out. Neoequos has the pedigree to handle 1 1/8 miles. Race Lens shows his sire Neolithic has a winner and runner-up from three starters at 1 1/8 miles. Neoequos is out of the stakes-placed Birdstone mare, Bold Birdie. The black type in this family comprises of Canadian listed sprinter-milers. Neoequos has speed on the rail, and Joseph indicated Neoequos will go to the lead and stay there as long as they can. Exotics.

Trained by Saffie Joseph Jr., Neoequos was a pass for me in the Fountain of Youth. He had an excellent record entering that race but had nearly exclusively ran in Florida-bred sprints. With a jock change to Irad Ortiz Jr., Neoequos took the early lead in the Fountain of Youth and tried his best to wire the field. He put in a gallant effort to end up getting passed late while holding third, beaten by only 2 3/4 lengths for it all. The colt will get another rider change to Edgard Zayas as Ortiz opts to rider Disruptor instead. Neoequos will have the ground-saving rail advantage, but he couldn't hang on in the Fountain of Youth and will have to go an extra sixteenth here. Use underneath.

2. Cool Intentions (20-1)

After capturing his maiden and an optional claimer last year, Cool Intentions finished a tepid fifth in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes in his 3-year-old debut. After racing in traffic near the back of the pack, Jockey David Egan asked Cool Intentions to pick it up by down the backstretch but was met with an icy reply, and the pair checked in fifth. Cool Intentions was given a monthlong break, and trainer Jorge Delgado has breezed the colt four times since the end of February. Cool Intentions has the pedigree to handle 1 1/8 miles. His sixth-rated Second Crop sire, Authentic, has one winner from two starters at 1 1/8 miles. Cool Intentions is out of the unraced Street Cry mare Intentional Cry. His half-brother Telekinesis captured Woodbine's 1 1/8-mile Plate Trial Stakes. Their second dam, multiple graded winning sprinter Gold Mover, faced the likes of Xtra Heat, Harmony Lodge, Carson Hollow and Finders Fee. Her descendants include Grade 2 winner Liora, who was second in the 2019 Kentucky Oaks (G1), plus multiple Grade 3 heroine Family Tree, dam of Grade 3-winning miler Heroic Move. Cool Intentions had almost two months off from breezing, which is a red flag. He's stretching out after an 86-day layoff, and I'm getting shivers. Not the good kind. Pass.

Trained by Jorge Delgado, Cool Intentions skipped the Holy Bull (G3) and Fountain of Youth after running fifth in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes. I've talked about this several times already this Triple Crown season, but I'll reiterate that the Mucho Macho Man Stakes has not been a productive race, with just fourth-place finisher Macho Music hitting the board in his next start. Delgado is 22% wins with a 33% in-the-money rate in graded stakes over the last year, according to Race Lens. Javier Castellano takes over from David Egan. Cool Intentions has a career-high 96 Brisnet Speed Fating and an 88 Equibase speed figure for his allowance win two starts back. Pass.

3. Smoken Boy (30-1)

Smoken Boy is a Grade 1 winner in Puerto Rico, but that's 1,032 miles away from stakes company in Florida. He was smoked by a combined 32 lengths in the Sam Davis and an optional claimer in his initial two starts in the Sunshine State. He was claimed by Cheryl Winebaugh out of an optional-claiming event for $75,000, where he placed seventh behind Jimmy's Dailys and Indecisiveness. Catholic Boy's son is out of Cairo Prince's daughter, the multiple stakes-placed sprinter Smoken Deb. The extended family includes the graded winning sprinter-milers Pass the Champagne and Miss Kentucky. Smoken Boy has the pedigree to handle 1 1/8 miles but not the class to handle this group. Pass.

Now trained by Cheryl Winebaugh, Smoken Boy enters off a distant sixth place finish in a 1 1/8-mile optional claimer in which KEM Stables picked up the colt for $75,000 from Sonata Stable. Jimmy's Dailys and Indecisiveness were second and third, respectively, in that race. Two starts back, the Puerto Rican Grade 1 winner was a well beaten eighth in the Sam F. Davis, a race whose form has held steady. Winebaugh has never saddled a graded-stakes winner. He is 0% across the board in graded stakes over the last five years but is 22% wins with a 44% in-the-money rate with runners first off the claim in that same time period. Edgar Perez will have the call. Pass.

4. Disruptor (4-1)

Disruptor showed speed and fade in his January debut against Jimmy's Dailys. Next, he destroyed a field of mainly first-time starters by 9 1/4 lengths. Irad Ortiz Jr. kept Disruptor about four wide behind the pace early, then the pair took over at the top of the stretch and Disruptor galloped home under a hand ride. He drifted a little through the stretch through an otherwise faultless performance. The Todd Pletcher trainee completed seven furlongs in 1:22.94 with a 13.17-second final furlong, earning a 94 Brisnet rating. Gun Runner's $1.15 million Keeneland September yearling is out of Speightstown's daughter Margate Gardens. Distruptor's half-brother Wilson Q placed in the 2023 Bashford Manor (G3). Margate Gardens is a full sister to the veteran graded winner Bridgetown, a sharp turf sprinter-miler. The mare has two stakes-winning half-brothers, Clement Rock, a winner at 1 1/8 miles on turf, and stakes-winning sprint veteran Carnack's Choice. Distuptor's distant relative Strike the Gold was second in the 1991 Florida Derby before winning in Kentucky. Contender.

Trained by Todd Pletcher, Disruptor is an exciting addition to the Road to the Kentucky Derby. He made his debut in early January and was caught late by Jimmy's Dailys and Pitkin, being forced to settle for third, beaten by just two lengths. He bounced back to win at second asking on March 1, initially pressing the pace before taking over and drawing off to win by 9 1/4 lengths. Both races were contested over seven furlongs. Disruptor received a 94 Brisnet Speed Rating and 99 Equibase speed figure for his maiden breaking victory. Irad Ortiz Jr. has been with the Gun Runner colt from the start and opts to stick with him rather then Fountain of Youth third-place finisher Neoequos. Pletcher is 23% wins with a 51% in-the-money rate with sprint-to-route runners over the last year and has historically been one of Gulfstream's top trainers. Contender.

5. Indecisiveness (30-1)

In his last start, Indecisiveness was a well-beaten third against optional claimers in the same 1 1/8-mile contest as Jimmy's Dailys, who bested him 3 1/4 lengths, and Smoken Boy, who placed sixth of seven. Indecisiveness raced three wide the entire way in third, and although he didn't improve his placing, he couldn't make up ground in the stretch either. By multiple stakes-winning miler Decisive Moment, Indecisiveness is out of the unraced Hat Trick mare Café De Nuit. The mare's half-sister, Christina's Journey, is a Grade 2 winner, and Indecisiveness's third dam Dancing Mirage is a stakes-winning miler. Indecisiveness hasn't shown much since winning his debut last November. I'm firmly passing.

Trained by Ruben Sierra, Indecisiveness enters off a third-place finish in a 1 1/8 mile optional claimer around the Gulfstream oval. The colt was a debut winner but finished fourth in the Juvenile Sprint Stakes for Florida breds and a different optional claimer. Indecisiveness's Equibase speed figures and Brisnet Speed Ratings are poor. Sierra has no graded winners and has sent out only My Denysse to a sixth-place finish in graded company in the last five years, according to Race Lens. Jorge Ruiz will get the leg up. Pass.

6. Jimmy's Dailys (12-1)

Jimmy's Dailys beat a promising field of maidens in January, including Disruptor and three rivals who returned to hit the board in their next start. The Brian Lynch trainee faced winners while jumping to 1 1/8 miles in his next start. Jimmy's Dailys made the early pace but couldn't hold off the even-money favorite Grande, a well-bred son of Curlin who is pointed to the Wood Memorial (G1). Jimmy's Dailys kept on and finished a clear second. It was a decent effort and netted Jimmy's Dailys an 89 Brisnet rating. By leading second-crop sire Vekoma, Jimmy's Dailys is out of First Dude's stakes-placed daughter Mama Joyce. Class skips to the third generation of the distaff line and includes two state-bred winning sprinters. Jimmy's Dailys has tactical speed and could earn a minor award. Use him for your lower Exotics if playing the field.

Trained by Brian Lynch, Jimmy's Dailys enters off a second-place finish in a 1 1/8-mile optional claimer over the Gulfstream main track. With Irad Ortiz Jr. up, Jimmy's Dailys did the early leg work but had no answer when winner Grande, who'd been glued to his side around the track, made his bid. Jimmy's Dailys continued on nicely for the show, however, and received an 85 Brisnet Speed rating, four points shy of his career-best 89 two starts back. This colt's speed figures are fair to middlin' by comparison to the field, but I do like that he already has run well at nine furlongs. Lynch is 12% wins with a 40% in-the-money rate in graded stakes in the last five years but is 13% wins with a 52% in-the-money rate, specifically at Gulfstream. Joel Rosario takes over from the Ortiz brothers, who have equally split Jimmy's Dailys last four starts. Exotics.

7.  Enterdadragon (30-1)

Enterdadragon is the most experienced in the field with nine starts, but he's had his photo taken only twice, once on Tapeta and the other on turf. By Wood Memorial (G1) winner Outwork, Enterdadragon is out of the unplaced Speightstown mare Raising Aida. The mare's half-sister is a stakes-placed turf router. All the class is in the third generation, anchored by the 1995 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Filly heroine My Flag, whose descendants include many graded winners, including the champion Storm Flag Flying. The Jose D'Angelo trainee has a good-bad race pattern and placed second in the Colonel Liam Stakes in his last start. Further, his late-pace figures range from the mid-70s to the high 80s. Plus, Ashley notes that he's making his second start on dirt. Pass.

Trained by Jose D'Angelo, Enterdadragon has had a salty nine starts already, with eight of them on turf. He has two wins, a maiden victory over Gulfstream's Tapeta track and an optional-claiming win at Tampa Bay Downs on turf. He enters off a second-place finish in the Colonel Liam Stakes on turf. D'Angelo is 24% wins with a 55% in-the-money rate with turf to dirt runners but just 13% wins with a 20% in-the-money clip in graded stakes over the past year, according to Race Lens. Dylan Davis has the return call from the Colonel Liam. Pass.

8. Madaket Road (7-2)

Madaket Road switched to pacesetting tactics in the Rebel Stakes, but he couldn't hold off Coal Battle and finished a widening 1 1/4 lengths behind in second place. Madaket Road's speed rating improved to a career-high 98 in his second start off the layoff. Bob Baffert took the blinkers off him for his last trio of solo works. The colt appeared more in the bridle and eager to work. But he has an upright running style, and he he doesn't lower his head like a distance horse. Madaket Road's pedigree is borderline for middle distances. Race Lens shows Quality Road has 9% winners from 192 starts at 1 1/8 miles on dirt over the last five years. Madaket Road's distaff line is speed-oriented. He is out of Grade 2 winning sprinter Frolic's Dream, and Madaket Road is half to multiple stakes-winning sprinter Bode's Dream and Grade 3-placed runner Wyeth. Madaket Road's speed ratings are average, and he's lost ground in three of his four lifetime starts. He doesn't pass horses and quits when challenged. Still, he manages to hold on for a check and might hit the lower exotics.

Trained by Bob Baffert, Madaket Road enters off a second-place finish in the Rebel. Although he was one of the top choices at Oaklawn Park, Laurie and I both passed on him in favor of longer shots. I, personally, did not regard him as one of Baffert's better runners, but with Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard, he would have wired the field if not for the plucky Coal Battle. He received a 96 Brisnet Speed Rating and a field-best 102 Equibase speed figure. Baffert will run Madaket Road without blinkers and is 35% wins with a whopping 71% in-the-money rate with that angle over the last year. Mike Smith replaces the injured Tyler Gaffalione and will be the colt's fifth jockey in as many starts. Contender.

9. Tappan Street (5-1)

After capturing his sprint debut in December, Tappan Street faced more experienced foes in his two-turn debut in the Holy Bull (G3). He took command at the 1/16 mark but was run down in mid-stretch by Burnham Square, finishing 1 3/4 lengths behind that rival. Tappan Street outclassed the rest of the field by 9 1/4 lengths. His Brisnet Speed Rating jumped 10 points to 99, and despite tiring slightly down the lane, he received a 94 late-pace figure, the second-highest in the Florida Derby. The Brad Cox trainee has a series of consistent four- and five-furlong breezes at Payson Park, including a pair of five furlongs in company with the older Grade 1 winner Saudi Crown. In virtually identical works at five furlongs, Tappan Street tracked Saudi Crown, drew even, and poked his head in front at the wire. But in their March 15 breeze, Tappan Street outworked the pretty gray colt, completing five furlongs in 1:00.80 compared with Saudi Crown's 1:01.00. Tappan Street was more aggressive in the bridle and galloped out in front. Into Mischief's $1 million baby should enjoy classic distances. He is out of Gazelle (G3) placed Virginia Key and is half to the stakes-placed turf mare, Distorted D'oro. Their dam is half to Del Mar Debutante (G1) heroine Grace Adler and Grade 3 winner Pyrenees. The extended family includes the veteran Grade 1 warrior Bullsbay. Tappan Street has tactical speed, but he could be hindered by the outside post. Contender.

Trained by Brad Cox, Tappan Street was a brave second in the Holy Bull in his second career start. The colt stalked the early pace led for about a quarter mile but succumbed to Burnham Square's stretch rally. The Holy Bull has not held. Burnham Square ran back fourth in the Fountain of Youth, fifth-place finisher He's Not Joking was 11th in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3), sixth-place Kinetic Control was second in an optional claimer, and seventh place Guns Loaded was fifth in the Hutcheson. Regular rider Luis Saez retains the mount. Exotics.

10. Sovereignty (8-5)

Sovereignty showed his five-length victory in the Street Sense (G3) wasn't a fluke when he ran down River Thames by a long neck in the Fountain of Youth in his 3-year-old debut. The final time for 1 1/16 miles was completed in 1:43.12 with a 6.69-second final half-furlong. Sovereignty earned a career-best 99 Brisnet rating with a 101 late-pace figure, the highest in the Florida Derby. His speed rating has room to improve in his second start off the layoff. The Bill Mott trainee has been breezing steadily at Payson Park, including a pre-race four-furlong move in 50.20 seconds in company with Chillax, a maiden Godolphin-bred. Sovereignty broke off in front and maintained a slight lead through the wire. He was relaxed and wasn't urged or asked through the breeze, and he was moving more easily than his mate. Into Mischief's son has classic distance breeding. He is out of the unraced Bernardini mare Crowned, a daughter of Grade 1 winner and 2009 Breeders' Cup Distaff runner-up Mushka. Sovereignty's third dam, Lakeway, was third in the 1995 Breeders' Cup Distaff. Sovereignty showed tactical speed last year and has the option to press the pace or close. Contender.

Trained by Bill Mott, Sovereignty broke his maiden in his third start in the Street Sense to close out his juvenile campaign. He then overcame four month layoff to win the Fountain of Youth in his 2025 debut. The form for the top three Street Sense finishers has thus far held firm, with none of the three finishing off the board in all subsequent starts, and I anticipate it continuing to do the same here. Regular rider Junior Alvarado misses this trip with an injury. Contender.