Head to Head: Showdown in Aqueduct's Ky. Derby prep

Laurie

Ashley

1. Scorching (10-1)

Scorching has been scratched from the Gotham.

2. Normandy Coast (15-1)

Normandy Coast's Brisnet speed ratings have progressed in each start, and the road warrior has competed at three tracks. His maiden victory at Ellis Park produced a next-out winner and a couple of third-place finishers, and three rivals returned to hit the board after his next outing at the Fair Grounds. The Eddie Kenneally trainee showed he was willing to fight when he turned back two challenges down the lane, capturing the optional-claiming allowance event by a neck over rivals on either side. His final time for six panels was 1:11.81 but with a slow 13.24-second final furlong. By the second-leading Third Crop sire Omaha Beach, Normandy Coast is out of the winning Congrats mare Alliteration. His half-sister Kandy Katie is a stakes-placed sprinter. Normandy Coast has tactical speed. He can rate off the pace or lead the herd. One knock is that his late-pace figures are on the low side, but another improvement here can make him competitive. Exotics.

Trained by Eddie Kenneally, Normandy Coast enters off a neck victory in an optional claimer at Fair Grounds on Jan. 11. Normandy Coast was fourth on debut, finishing 8 1/2 lengths behind the winner and Fountain of Youth (G2) entrant Keep It Easy. The colt then won at second asking before taking a 5 1/2-month hiatus prior to his Fair Grounds victory. Normandy Coast's Equibase speed figures have improved with each start, culminating with a 91 last out. Kenneally is just 9% wins with a 27% in-the-money rate in graded stakes over the last year. Jockey Ben Curtis has the return call. Pass.

3. Calling Card (6-1)

Calling Card returns to the scene of his greatest and only triumph last November, where he tore up a maiden state-bred field by 17 lengths. He completed a mile in 1:36.36 with a 12.63-second final furlong, while Joel Rosario kept looking back in disbelief with Calling Card under a hold. The effort wasn't as good as it looked. Despite numerous attempts, none of his eight rivals have earned a trip to the winner's circle in the state-bred maiden ranks. Trainer Mike Maker took his Calling Card on the road, but the colt managed a third-place finish at Oaklawn and was no threat in the Lecomte (G3). By Complexity, Calling Card's dam Graceful Rage is a half to multiple graded placed sprinter-miler Tip Tap Tapizar. Grade 1 heroes Mucho Gusto, Peaks and Valleys and Higher Power are part of the family. Calling Card must duplicate his 93 Brisnet rating to beat this field. Maybe he'll come calling down the lane, but I'm not calling it. Pass.

Trained by Mike Maker, Calling Card seeks easier company after finishing eighth in the Lecomte. I didn't like him in that spot, but he might be worth looking at this time. His sole victory, a 17 1/4-length romp against New York-breds, came over this track. Maker has added blinkers for this race and is 12% wins with a 30% in-the-money clip with first-time blinkers. Maker is just 7% wins with a 31% in-the-money rate in graded stakes. Kendrick Carmouche will be the colt's sixth different jockey in as many starts. Exotics.

4. Sacrosanct (3-1)

The undefeated Sacrosanct steps up after dominating state-bred stakes fields by a combined 13 1/2 lengths. Despite his victories, Sacrosanct's winning margin decreased in each start from 12 lengths to 1 1/2 lengths and then by a head in the seven-furlong New York Stallion Series Stakes. But Brad Cox gave Sacrosanct a break, and the colt has been training consistently at Belmont for the last month. By second-crop sire Honest Mischief, Sacrosanct is out of the unraced Unbridled's Song mare Vibrato. Sacrosanct's half-sister is a Grade 3 winner in Puerto Rico. Their second dam is a stakes-winning sprinter.

Sacrosanct runs well fresh, and his best speed ratings make him competitive. Plus, his unbeaten record should be respected. That being said, he might have company on the front end. Exotics.

Trained by Brad Cox, Sacrosanct in undefeated in four starts while beating up on New York-breds. He owns three stakes wins and has a career-best 92 Equibase speed figure. Normally, I would stay far away from a runner who hasn't faced open company, but considering that Sacrosanct hails from the Cox barn, I have to break my own rules here. This is a soft spot to make his graded debut, and I expect he will run well over a track he clearly loves. Regular rider Manny Franco has the call. Contender.

5. Sand Devil (9-5)

Sand Devil is the stronger of the two unbeaten New York-breds in the Gotham field. After outclassing maidens and optional claimers by a combined 16 lengths, Sand Devil stepped up in the Damon Runyon Stakes. He dueled through the lane and stubbornly refused to let his rival pass, winning by a long neck. He probably could have won by more, and they could have gone around again, but the other horse wasn't going to pass. The Linda Rice trainee earned a career-best 97 speed rating, and his 111 late-pace figure tops the field. Sand Devil traveled seven furlongs in 1:24.66 with a sharp 12.27-second final furlong. When he destroyed optional claimers at a mile in January, it was a paid workout. The colt was under wraps down the stretch, and he still recorded a 13.03-second final furlong, so he has speed to spare.

Violence's son is out of Mineshaft's daughter Mineralogist, a multiple stakes winner from seven furlongs to 1 1/8 miles. Sand Devil's half-brother Can You Diggit is a restricted stakes winner at 1 1/8  miles, and his half-sister bore the restricted winning sprinter Acoustic Ave. Sand Devil's family has plenty of black-type earners, including his second dam Seeking the Ante and third dam Grade 1 heroine Antespend, dam of Florida Derby (G1) hero and sire Friends Lake. Sand Devil has a very nice pedigree and tactical speed. Contender.

Trained by Linda Rice, Sand Devil is also undefeated while racing exclusively in New York-bred company. He enters off a game victory in the seven-furlong Damon Runyon Stakes, which earned him a field-best 100 Equibase speed figure. In his prior start at the Gotham distance of a mile, Sand Devil scampered off to a 12 1/2-length victory. Like Sacrosanct, Sand Devil is one I normally would pass on. But restricted company aside, he looks good on paper. Regular rider Jose Lezcano will pilot Sand Devil in his graded and open-company debut. Contender.

6. Pagode (30-1)

Pagode graduated at first asking over a snowy Turfway strip, winning a three-way photo. He circled the field six wide and needed every inch of 6 1/2 furlongs. The Paulo Lobo trainee earned a 76 speed rating, and his 75 late-pace figure is one of the lowest in this field.

Constitution's son is out of the turf mare Pretty Girl, a daughter of Harlan's Holiday. Pretty Girl won or placed in group or graded stakes in Argentina, France and the U.S. The family is filled with international black-type earners. He may develop into a black-type earner, but Pagode is shipping, switching surfaces and stretching out for the first time against more seasoned horses. Pass.

Trained by Paulo Lobo, Pagode is a debut maiden winner. With Luan Machado aboard, Pagode got his nose down on the wire in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden event at Turfway Park. He earned an unimpressive 72 Equibase speed figure. Lobo is 0-for-6 over the last year in graded stakes, with a fourth-place finish as his best result. Machado has the return call. Pass.

7. Flood Zone (12-1)

After washing out Florida state-breds in a maiden event by 5 1/2 lengths, Flood Zone switched to Brad Cox's barn in February. Flood Zone showed maturity in his second start. First, he pressed the pace three wide. After engaging the pacesetter, Flood Zone was stuck between horses when a rival challenged on his outside. Many horses will back out when they are between horses, but Flood Zone won the battle of wills as the pacesetter backed down. Down the lane, his outside rival gave up. Flood Zone's ears were flickering through it all as he didn't feel seriously threatened. Flood Zone completed 6 1/2 furlongs in 1:17.82, with a 6.45-second half-furlong. He earned a 94 speed rating, and his 97 late-pace figure is the second highest in the Gotham field. Brad Cox gave the bay colt a trio of works at Payson Park, including two five-furlong moves in 1:02, and shipped to New York early to get acclimated.

Frosted's son is out of the winning Curlin mare, Curls for Girls. She's a full sister to Grade 2-placed Conquest Curlgirl. The second generation of this family includes Grade 1 heroine Tiz Miz Sue and Grade 1 hero Free Drop Billy, who was third in the 2018 Gotham. Flood Zone is bred to love longer distances. He has tactical speed but is shipping and facing winners for the first time. Live long shot.

Now trained by Brad Cox, Flood Zone finished second on debut, missing the victory by just 3/4 length. He did win at second asking, improving his Equibase speed figure from a 72 to a 98. But both races were against Florida-breds, and neither race has produced a winner aside from Flood Zone. Cox is 24% wins with a 52% in-the-money rate with runners new to his barn over the past five years. Cox retained regular rider Reylu Gutierrez, but the duo have teamed up for only one off-the-board placing in the past year. Exotics.

8. McAfee (10-1)

McAfee scratched out of the Jerome Stakes. After graduating at first asking at Churchill, McAfee showed grit and determination facing winners at a mile. After tailgating the pacesetters, Emmanuel Esquivel asked the colt to go through a tight opening on the rail. McAfee complied and battled shoulder-to-shoulder with Moral, while Optical in the three-path grabbed the lead. McAffee won the battle with Moral and just missed the victory by a head to Optical. That one showed nothing in two starts at the Fair Grounds. The Richard Dutrow trainee earned an 83 Brisnet rating and 89 late-pace figure, the highest in the Jerome field.

Cloud Computing's son is a half-brother to the sensational Thorpedo Anna. Their third dam bore Wood Memorial hero and sire Eskendereya.

If McAfee shows a quarter of the talent Thorpedo Anna has in a hind hoof, he'll be competitive here. Exotics.

Trained by Rick Dutrow, McAfee has a long way to go before anyone can consider him in the same class as half-sister Thorpedo Anna. He did debut a winner at Churchill Downs, drawing off to win a six-furlong sprint by 3 1/4 lengths. That race has produced a handful of winners, albeit at the claiming level. He then missed his second win by a head in a starter race to Optical, who was subsequently 23th in the Lecomte. Lane Luzzi, who has never won a graded stakes, has the mount. Pass.

9. Garamond (8-1)

After breaking from post 8 in his Tampa Bay Downs debut, Garamond willingly cut over and passed horses willingly while traveling up the rail. He athletically cut the corner and from that point, the race was for second place as the Chad Brown trainee galloped under the wire 1 3/4 lengths in front. Garamond stopped the clock at 1:17 with a final half-furlong in 6.49 seconds. Although the victory was visually impressive, the Juddmonte homebred recorded a 79 speed rating and 82 late pace figure. Uncle Mo's son is out of the unplaced Tapit mare Blue Watch. Garamond's distaff line is European. His second dam is European champion 2-year-old filly Special Duty, and the extended family includes 2018 Breeders' Cup Mile heroine Expert Eye. Garamond's post-race works at Payson Park are quicker than pre-race, in the 48 range for four furlongs. Like some Gotham rivals, he's shipping, taking on more experienced rivals and stretching out simultaneously. Garamond needs to improve to be competitive here. Pass.

Trained by Chad Brown, Garamond is a debut winner. It was a 6 1/2-furlong mid-level event at Tampa Bay Downs, and he received an 81 Equibase speed figure. The Juddmonte homebred was reluctant to load but otherwise turned in a professional race. He had no problem running inside rivals and was kept to the task with mild urging from Sammy Camacho. Javier Castellano will be aboard this weekend. Pass.

10. My Mitole (15-1)

My Mitole's light bulb went on in his third start last year when stretching to a mile against maiden claimers. Given time off, the Carlos Martin trainee benefited from the break and showed his connections some love with a 5 1/4-length score against optional claimers on Valentine's Day. After tracking the pacesetter, My Mitole took over at the one-eighth pole and opened up under his own power under a hand ride. He didn't switch leads until mid-stretch but was otherwise professional. He traveled a mile in 1:39.86, with a 13.03-second final furlong. His speed ratings and late-pace figures improved in each of his four starts, culminating in an 86 speed rating and 92 late-pace figure.

By Third-ranked Third Crop sire Mitole, My Mitole is out of the unplaced Seeking the Gold mare Broad Battle. My Mitole's half-sister bore black-type earners Joe, a multiple stakes winner at Laurel, and Irony of Reality, a Grade 3-placed turf router. My Mitole has tactical speed and should improve in his second start off the layoff. Exotics.

Trained by Carlos Martin, My Mitole has raced exclusively over the Aqueduct oval. He was second on debut and then fifth in his second start. Martin dropped him into the claiming ranks for his third start. He also switched up the colt's running style to be more forwardly placed early, and My Mitole responded with a win. He followed that up with another victory in a starter optional claiming race. My Mitole's best Equibase speed figure is an 80, and Martin is 0% across the board in graded stakes over the last year. Regular jockey Luis Rivera Jr. has the call. Pass.