Head to Head: Rivalries are renewed in the Stephen Foster

Laurie

Ashley

1. First Mission

First Mission tuned up for the Stephen Foster with a decisive two-length victory in the 1 1/8-mile Oaklawn Handicap (G2), leaving Skippylongstocking 7 3/4 lengths in the dust. That rival bested First Mission by 3/4 length in last year’s edition of the Stephen Foster. But this year the Brad Cox trainee has earned two triple-digit Brisnet Speed Ratings and has drilled a trio of quick five-furlong works. Exotics.

Trained by Brad Cox, First Mission was last seen winning the Oaklawn Handicap over Skippylongstocking in third. It was his second start off a nearly seven-month layoff, and he ran well in that race, too. He was part of a blanket finish that saw him land third, beaten just a neck for it all, in the Razorback Handicap (G3). First Mission has a 3: 1-1-0 record at Churchill Downs, with his only off-the-board finish there in last year’s edition of this race. He ran fourth, beaten by 3 1/2 lengths. The distance is a bit hit or miss, however, with the 5-year-old Godolphin homebred having a 6: 2-1-0 record going nine panels. Luis Saez picks up the mount. Exotics.

2. Mindframe

Mindframe’s only losses were a pair of second-place finishes in the Belmont and Haskell Stakes (G1) when he stretched beyond a mile and had problems during the races. The lightly raced Todd Pletcher trainee shipped to win the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1) in a thrilling four-horse finish on a rainy Derby day and previously captured an optional-claiming event at the track over a dry surface, so we know he’ll handle the track. Usually a pacesetter or presser, Mindframe showed tactical speed in the Churchill Downs Stakes by settling in mid-pack before making a late rally on the outside and nipping Banishing and Nysos by a neck, who were in a dead heat for second. Mindframe earned a 100 speed rating, and he shares top billing for the highest late-pace figure of 99 with Sierra Leone. Todd Pletcher gave the colt a rare five-furlong bullet work in 1:01.67 on June 13 in company with the maiden 3-year-old Fun to Tap. In typical Pletcher fashion, the pair moved as a team through the work, although Fun to Tap was urged while Mindframe moved along under his own power and gradually pulled ahead on the gallop-out in workmanlike fashion. Contender.

Trained by Todd Pletcher, Mindframe stretches out around two turns after winning the seven-furlong Churchill Downs Stakes on the Kentucky Derby undercard. Mindframe has never been outside the exacta in his six-race career. How he’ll fare going two turns as an older runner will be interesting to see. He was second in last year’s Belmont and Haskell in his third and fourth career starts, losing both to Dornoch, so the distance should be no problem. The colt is also 2-for-2 at Churchill Downs. Regular rider Irad Ortiz Jr. has the call. Contender.

3. Skippylongstocking

The elder statesman at 6 years old, Skippylongstocking has third-place finishes followed by wins in four starts this year, all at different tracks. The only time he recorded back-to-back victories was in last year’s Challenger Stakes (G3) and Oaklawn Handicap (G2), which he followed up with a third-place finish in the Stephen Foster. I predict similar results this year. Exotics.

Trained by Saffie Joseph Jr., Skippylongstocking cuts back in distance after winning the 1 1/4-mile Hollywood Gold Cup (G2) a month ago. The 6-year-old son of Exaggerator is 4: 2-0-2 for the year and has been quite the road warrior in 2025. His last nine starts were at nine different tracks. I’m a huge fan of Skippy, but it’s concerning that he doesn’t have a win over this track. He was third at Churchill last year in this event and fourth in the 2021 edition of the Street Sense, then a listed race. Admittedly, that’s not a lot of form to go on for a horse with as long of a career as Skippylongstocking has had. Jose Ortiz replaces his brother, who’s aboard Mindframe. Exotics.

4. Sierra Leone

Last year’s 3-year-old champ returned to action in March in the New Orleans Classic (G2). He took up his customary position at the back of a five-horse field but was a touch rusty as he tried closing into a soft pace. The Chad Brown trainee made up ground in his usual wandering style but managed only third place. Sierra Leone has logged several four-furlong breezes and returns off a 98-day layoff. Exotics.

Trained by Chad Brown, Sierra Leone was third in the New Orleans Classic in his 2025 bow. It was a good effort, but the colt’s closing kick was hampered by a loose on the lead winner and a small field. Last year, Sierra Leone faced off with both Mystik Dan and Mindframe. He was second by a nose to Mystik Dan in that thrilling Kentucky Derby finish and then third behind Dornoch and Mindframe in the Belmont. Last year, Sierra Leone was his own worst enemy at times, lugging in and out in the stretch run. He ran straight at Fair Grounds and has hopefully put that tendency behind him for good. Regular jockey Flavien Prat has the mount. Contender.

5. Mystik Dan

Mystik Dan came oh so close in a thrilling edition of the Lake Ouachita Stakes at Oaklawn, missing the photo by a nose. Next, he outclassed the Blame Stakes (G3) field, earning a career-best 103 speed rating. Now the Kenny McPeek trainee is making his third start off a layoff, and like many 4-year-olds, he’s showing signs of improvement. I picked him on top in the Blame, and I’m sticking with the Kentucky Derby winner. Contender.

Trained by Kenny McPeek, 2024 Kentucky Derby hero Mystik Dan strung together a trio of abysmal starts, losing the Belmont, the Malibu (G1), and the Pegasus World Cup (G1) by a combined 47 3/4 lengths. He rounded back into form in May, however, running second by a nose in the listed Lake Ouachita then winning the Blame (G3). Mystik Dan loves Churchill Downs and has his favorite jockey, Brian Hernandez Jr., in the saddle. Contender.

6. Hit Show

Our Dubai World Cup (G1) hero makes his first start off an 84-day layoff against a stalwart group. Brad Cox gave the pretty gray horse a pair of quick five-furlong moves, including a pre-race 59.40 seconds, third-best of the day in company with First Mission. Neither was asked for their best, yet Hit Show deferred to his mate, staying a neck to a half-length behind, even in the gallop out. Hit Show will try to emulate Gun Runner, another son of Candy Ride, by winning the Stephen Foster in his next start after Dubai. Exotics.

Also from the Brad Cox barn, Hit Show makes his return to the U.S. starting gate following a shocking victory in the Dubai World Cup. Fifth in the 2023 Kentucky Derby, Hit Show has the potential to be very good, as we saw in Dubai. But he can underperform, as we saw in the Cornhusker (G3) last year. Hit Show also isn’t particularly fond of Churchill Downs, with a 5: 2-0-0 record there, though he did finish third in the Clark (G2) before being disqualified to fifth. Florent Geroux has the return call from Dubai. Pass.

7. Ashcroft

Ashcroft has switched hands multiple times in search of his forever trainer. He discovered a mile at Santa Anita was his best distance, but he hasn’t cashed a check since April 2024. Ashcroft made up a couple of lengths in the restricted Knicks Go Stakes in his first start for Lukas but was beaten like a TikTok trend. Against this field, Ashcroft is up against it. Pass.

Now in the care of the Lukas Stable with the retirement of the Coach, Ashcroft enters off a sixth-place finish in the Knicks Go Overnight Stakes. He has just two wins from 12 starts and hasn’t hit the board in a stakes race in three tries. Julien Leparoux, who was aboard for his fifth-place finish in the Commonwealth (G3), has the mount. Pass.