Head to Head: Preakness rivals face off in Haskell Stakes

Laurie

Ashley

1. Bracket Buster (10-1)

Monmouth's Pegasus Stakes was a slam dunk for Bracket Buster, who scored by a blowout seven lengths. The Vickie Oliver trainee has a clear pattern of rebounding every other race. He couldn't hold off Gosger during a "rebound" race cycle in the Lexington (G3), and struggled on the defensive end against Goal Oriented, beaten a dozen lengths. I predict another double-digit loss. Pass.

Trained by Victoria Oliver, Bracket Buster was an excellent second to Gosger in the Lexington off a 6 1/2 month layoff. He ran poorly on the Kentucky Derby undercard, which could be attributed to the sloppy conditions. But he bounced back to win the Pegasus Stakes by seven lengths in the slop over runner-up Wildncrazynight. It was a career-best effort, earning a 96 Brisnet Speed Rating. Oliver has just 2% wins with an 18% in-the-money clip in graded stakes over the last five years, according to Race Lens. John Velazquez has the mount. Exotics.

2. Journalism (4-5)

What can I write about Journalism that hasn't already been written or said? He's the second-best 3-year-old colt in the nation, and he's crazy smart and athletic. The only concern is how much is left in the tank. Five starts, including rough trips in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and Preakness, plus tussling with Sovereignty in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes. Also toss in three cross-country trips. Mike McCarthy gave Journalism a pre-race six-furlong breeze in 1:12 in company with the older allowance-class gelding Phosphorescence, who was overmatched. Win contender.

Trained by Mike McCarthy and ridden by regular jockey Umberto Rispoli, Journalism gets unintended class relief after running in all three legs of the Triple Crown. To recap, he was second in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont to Sovereignty and won the Preakness by a half length over runner-up Gosger. Journalism has posted five straight triple-digit Brisnet Speed Ratings. There’s really nothing else to say. One to beat.

3. Wildncrazynight (30-1)

Wildncrazynight likes Monmouth. But   he was no match for Bracket Buster, finishing a distant second in the Pegasus Stakes. That's about all I have to say about him. Pass.

Trained by Dan Ward, Wildncrazynight enters off a runner-up effort to Bracket Buster in the Pegasus Stakes, the local Haskell prep. The 3-year-old gelding has only two career wins, one at Delaware Park and the other in a New Jersey-bred allowance race at Monmouth. Ward wintered him at Oaklawn, where he went 5: 0-1-0. Ward has 0% wins with a 33% in-the-money rate in graded stakes over the last five years. Regular jockey Isaac Castillo retains the mount. Pass.

4. Burnham Square (5-1)

Burnham Square made headlines earlier this year at Gulfstream Park, blowing away a field of maidens by nine lengths, then besting eventual Florida Derby (G1) winner Tappan Street by 1 3/4 lengths in the Holy Bull (G3). He cemented his Kentucky Derby prospects in the Blue Grass (G1), staking a quick pace before nailing the distance-challenged East Avenue on the wire. The Ian Wilkes trainee had a rough trip and wasn't disgraced by his sixth-place finish in the Derby. Burnham Square faced three rivals, including East Avenue, in the Matt Winn (G3). He was closer than usual, but East Avenue set easy early fractions, and nobody was going to pass him. Burnham Square might get a lively pace to chase and is worth an exotics look.

Trained by Ian Wilkes, Holy Bull and Blue Grass winner Burnham Square enters off a runner-up effort in the Matt Winn. He earned a career-best 101 in the Holy Bull and brought in a respectable 96 last out in the Matt Winn. Brian Hernandez Jr., who’s been aboard in the gelding’s last three starts, has the return call. Exotics.

5. National Law (20-1)

National Law ran one of the worst races I've ever seen when breaking his maiden at Parx. He never got out of a slow gallop despite encouragement, was all over the track and veered so close to the outer rail that the jock could have grabbed a beer from a rail bird. Despite a competitor on the inner rail giving it all he had, National Law galloped erratically under the wire 1 1/2 lengths in front. In his next start, this time at Pimlico, the pretty gray colt broke slowly and hit the starting gate. He was climbing at the back of the pack with very high knee action. To his credit, National Law picked off runners and won by a half-length while still running erratically in the stretch. The Jorge Duarte Jr. trainee was no factor in the Pegasus Stakes. National Law moves like a turf horse and has an excellent turf pedigree. His half-sister, Family Way, is a multiple Grade 1-placed turf router. His dam, a Giant's Causeway mare, is half to multiple Group 1 winner and sire, Caravaggio. Additionally, most of National Law's half-siblings are turf horses. Pass.

Trained by Jorge Duarte Jr., National Law gave racing fans his best Spicer Cub impression in two of his last three starts. He did win those two races, but it wasn’t pretty. He comes in off a fourth-place finish in the Pegasus Stakes behind Bracket Buster and Wildncrazynight. His speed ratings this year have been decent but not good enough to compete with the best in the field. Duarte has 0% wins with a 22% in-the-money clip in graded stakes over the last five years, according to Race Lens. Irad Ortiz Jr. has the mount. Pass.

6. Gosger (9-2)

In his third career start, the well-bred Gosger hit a home run in the Lexington by a couple of lengths over Bracket Buster. He lived up to the potential when facing more accomplished foes in the Preakness and almost upset the applecart. The Brendan Walsh trainee had his five-length lead whittled down with each stride as Journalism rolled through the stretch to nip Gosger by a half-length. The pretty gray colt earned a career-best 106 Brisnet Speed Rating and a 96 late-pace figure. He has recorded steady works at Churchill and could pull the upset. Contender.

Trained by Brendan Walsh, Gosger is a late arrival on the scene, but he appeared with a bang. The son of Nyquist won the Lexington in his third start, but it’s in the Preakness that he really made a statement. After pressing Clever Again through some quick opening fractions, Gosger took over and skipped away to a five-length lead in the stretch while Journalism made his own racing path behind him. He looked home free as the wire loomed, but Journalism ran him down in the final strides to get up by a half length. He earned a sparkling 106 Brisnet Speed Rating for his run. Luis Saez has the return call. Contender.

7. Kentucky Outlaw (15-1)

Kentucky Outlaw's sole off-the-board finish was in the 1 1/8-mile Federico Tesio Stakes. He was off slow then blew the first turn, swerving out, and continued to be rank for a few strides. He improved position slightly but finished 8 1/2 lengths behind he winner. In three of his five starts, this headstrong colt has broken slow, had to steady and pulled. He made the pace in the Delaware Derby and despite hugging the rail, Kentucky Outlaw was tamed to third place, 6 1/4 lengths behind the winner. Pass.   

Trained by Felissa Dunn, Kentucky Outlaw was last seen finishing third in the Delaware Derby after doing the early legwork. The son of Outwork just debuted in February and won his first two races by open lengths at Parx. Along with the Delaware Derby, he’s also been fifth in the Federico Tesio and won the Long Branch Stakes. Kentucky Outlaw has surprisingly good speed ratings, including a 102 he earned in his second start. This appears to be Dunn’s first graded starter, and she’s certainly swinging for the fences here. However, I don’t think trying Kentucky Outlaw here is super far-fetched. Florent Geroux has the mount. Long-shot play.

8. Goal Oriented (4-1)

Goal Oriented faced more accomplished runners in the Preakness with only two starts under his girth. Around the far turn, he was roughed up by Journalism bullying his way out of a box. Goal Oriented was banged hard, almost off his feet, and had to steady. That was the end of his Preakness bid, and to his credit, he finished fourth.

Bob Baffert gave Goal Oriented a trio of five-furlong bullet works at Santa Anita. His second-to-last work set up like a mini race. Goal Oriented sat several lengths off a workmate, then spotted three other rivals breezing around the far turn. Goal Oriented went six wide, quickened on his own and passed those rivals through the wire and gallop out, completing five furlongs in 58 flat. In his last breeze, Goal Oriented faced a pair of John Sadler trainees, including the older multiple Grade 2-placed For All Mankind. He rated a few lengths behind the pair before passing in the stretch without being asked, completing the work in 59.20. Contender.

Trained by Bob Baffert, Goal Oriented ships back east to take another shot against some of the best. He made his graded debut in the Preakness and stayed on for fourth despite being part of the bumper cars incident involving Journalism. All three of his speed ratings have been excellent, with a 98 in his debut, a 104 in an optional claimer on the Kentucky Derby undercard, and a 99 in the Preakness. He’s a road warrior and will be making his fourth start at as many tracks. Flavien Prat retains the mount. Contender.