Head to Head: Long shots could have say in Norfolk Stakes

Thursday’s  Norfolk Stakes kicks off the third day of Royal Ascot with a competitive 5-furlong sprint for 2-year-olds. This historic race, a “win and you’re in” qualifier for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint at Del Mar, promises fierce competition among a talented field of 20 colts and fillies.

While no 2-year-old has completed the Norfolk–Juvenile Turf Sprint double, this Group 2 contest has consistently produced legitimate Breeders’ Cup contenders in recent years. Last year’s third-place finisher, Arizona Blaze, went on to finish second in the Juvenile Turf Sprint. The 2023 Norfolk winner, Valiant Force, also took runner-up honors at the Breeders’ Cup. In 2021, Go Bears Go placed second in both races. Back in 2020, Wesley Ward’s Golden Pal hit the board in the Norfolk before capturing the Juvenile Turf Sprint title at Keeneland.

Scheduled as Race 1 on the card, post time is set for 9:30 AM ET) The Norfolk gate is positioned partway down the straight one-mile course.

Note: Program numbers and starting gate positions differ, which is a common feature at British meetings. The turf is currently listed as good to firm.

Ashley and I sail through race replays, statistics, pedigrees and more, to list our top selections.

Laurie

1. Afjan (7-1)

Post 5

By multiple Group 2-winning sprinter Mehmas, Afjan’s dam Al Johrah placed in the Queen Mary (Gr.2) as a 2-year-old behind the brilliant Lady Aurelia. and she is half to two juvenile blacktype earners. Al Johrah is half to the multiple group winner Stormy Antarctic, and Balsam, a listed juvenile winner.

Afjan graduated at first asking in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden event at Chantilly. He pressed the pace before running down the favorite, Vardif, who was six lengths in front. Afjan blew by Vardif  like he was tied to the rail, took over in the final furlong and lengthened his lead to 1 1/4 lengths. The H.F. Devin trainee competed the distance over good going in 1:04.09 and recorded an 82 Timeform rating. Live Longshot. 

3. Charles Darwin (8-5)

Post 15

By No Nay Never, winner of the 2013 Norfolk, Charles Darwin’s full sister is a stakes-placed sprinter, and their half-brother is multiple Group 1- winning sprinter and sire Blackbeard.

Charles Darwin faced a trio of challengers in the Antarctic Stakes in his second start. The striking dark bay colt turned back a mild challenge to win by 3 1/2 lengths, getting five furlongs in 1:03.18 and earning a 94 Timeform Rating. A winner of two of three starts, the Aiden O’Brien trainee is likely the favorite. Contender.

Coolmore Stud The Antarctic

8. Graft (20-1)

Post 4

By War Front’s son, U S Navy Flag, a multiple Group 1 winning sprinter, Graft is the first blacktype earner in his immediate family. His dan’s half-sister was a Group 1 winning juvenile.

Graft improved in each start and finally found the winner’s circle in his fourth race, the listed La Fleche Listed Stakes at Chantilly just 18 days ago. He grabbed the lead with a furlong to go and held on to win by a half-length, getting five furlongs over yielding ground in a sharp 57.95, recording a 95 Timeform rating. The victory was impressive, considering he was traveling uphill before leveling out in the final furlong. Graft is the one of the most experienced colts in the Norfolk and has a fitness edge. Live longshot.

13. Naval Light (3-1)

Post 9

By Group 1 winning sprinter Havana Grey, Naval Light is the first foal out of the unraced Ventura Jazz. She’s a half to the UAE-Gr.2 winning miler, Championship.

Making his debut in the five-furlong Bet365 Two-Year-Old Trophy EBF Conditions Stakes, Naval Light lingered at the back of the pack and then made a breathtaking but belated move from in the final half-furlong but couldn’t catch the more experienced winner. The Karl Burke trainee settled for second place, bested 1 1/2 lengths and earned a 60 Timeform rating. Naval Light will come sailing late if there’s a quick early place. Exotics.  Watch the replay: https://www.racingtv.com/watch/replays/2025-05-24/beverley/1445

14. Sandal’s Song (8-1)

Post 7

By Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner Mendelssohn, Sandal’s Song graduated at first asking in the Royal Palm Juvenile Stakes on a firm turf surface at Gulfstream Park last month. The race is a qualifier for the Norfolk Stakes. Breaking from the rail, Sandal’s Song settled directly behind the pace before tilting out in the stretch and galloping by the pacesetters by 1 1/12 lengths. The  George Weaver trainee was clocked in 56.30 for five furlongs, with an 11.80 final furlong. Weaver struck Royal Ascot gold with Crimson Advocate in 2023, winning the Queen Mary Stakes after qualifying with a win in the Royal Palm Juvenile Fillies. Contender.

Royal Palm Juvenile Stakes

Ashley

1. Afjan (7-1)

Post 5

Trained by H Devin, Afjan was a debut winner at Chantilly, going 5 1/2 furlongs over a soft course. It will be interesting to see how he handles firmer ground. His dam Al Johrah was runner-up in the 2016 edition of the Queen Mary (Gr.2, 2-YOF, 5fT). Exotics.

3. Charles Darwin (8-5)

Post 15

Trained by Aidan O’Brien, Charles Darwin was fourth on debut at Curragh. He led during the early stages but dropped by to mid-pack halfway through the race to finish fourth of 7. He made all the running in his next two starts, winning his second start by 5 1/2 lengths and his third start by 3 1/4 lengths. Strong pedigree and from a top barn. Contender.

4. Clear Force (20-1)

Post 16

Trained by Karl Burke, Clear Force is another front-running type. In his debut, he chased the leaders to wind up second of seven. He did all the legwork in his second start, striding out to a 4 1/2 length victory. He attempted the same tactics in the listed National Stakes but was headed with about two furlongs left to run. He continued to battle on but faded in the final strides to finish fourth of seven as the favorite, two placings behind First Legion. Exotics.

7. First Legion (12-1)

Post 13

Trained by Richard Hannon, First Legion debuted a winner at York and was a good second in the listed National Stakes at Sandown Park in his second outing. He still appeared to be a bit green in the National and has every chance to progress over a surface that he should favor. He also boasts the second-highest Timeform rating in the field. Live longshot.

8. Graft (20-1)

Post 4

Trained by Josephine Soudan, Graft debuted third in a claiming event. He hit the board in his next two starts before graduating in his fourth start in the listed Le Fleche Stakes. He’ll need to progress further here, but if the pace is strong enough, a minor award is not out of the realm of possibility. Longshot exotics play.

12. London Boy (20-1)

Post 1

Trained by Freire, London Boy was a debut winner at Brighton on June 9. He initially raced at the rear of the field but made up ground on the leaders with about 1 1/2 furlongs left. He struck the lead and kept on nicely to win by a length. He gets a tongue tie for this outing and needs to take a step forward to be on par with the best in this field. Longshot exotics play.

13. Naval Light (3-1)

Post 9

Trained by Karl Burke, Naval Light debuted in the bet365 Two-Year-Old Trophy EBF Conditions Stakes. Winner Old Is Gold was also a maiden entering the race but, like the rest of the field, had the experience of having at least one prior start under his girth. Third-place finisher Raakeb just finished 7th of 20 in the Coventry Stakes (Gr. 2) on day one of the Royal Ascot meet. Naval Light should certainly improve second out. Contender.

16. Wise Approach (12-1)

Post 3

Trained by Charlie Appleby, Wise Approach debuted at Ascot in April in the Royal Ascot Two-Year-Old Trial EBF Conditions Stakes. He won by a half-length over twelve rivals. He was most recently fourth behind winner First Legion in the ebfstallions.com Novice Stakes at York. He lost second, approaching one furlong left to run and may not have wanted six furlongs. The cutback to five panels could move him up. Live longshot.

Analysis

Laurie

Favorites: Look elsewhere. Favorites are 0 for 12, and only half were fourth or better. South Central (2008) was the last favorite to win. The previous four winners went off at odds of 12-1, 150-1, 50-1 and 14-1.

Previous starts and layoffs: Look for a quick turnaround. Nine of the last 12 winners had their previous start between eight and 19 days previously.

Nine of 12 had a previous start at five furlongs, and six won at the distance. Five of the last 17 winners won or placed at Windsor.

Post position: Half of the last 12 winners, including the last three, broke from post five or lower.

Charles Darwin owns the highest Timeform ratings in the field and has dominated rivals by a combined 8 3/4 lengths in his last two starts. Could this well-bred colt become the first favorite to win in 17 years?

Afjan won his debut over a course similar to Ascot’s. He earned a sharp 82 Timeform rating and should improve.

Sandal’s Song brings American speed to Royal Ascot. George Weaver succeeded in the filly division two years ago and could do it again.

Naval Light should have won his debut but was held back until the last moment. He exploded past rivals and if he can do it again, this time a little sooner, he could upset the Norfolk.

Graft is a live longshot. His Timeform numbers have improved in each start and he was a sharp winner of his last.

Ashley

We have a trio of potential pacesetters in Charles Darwin, Clear Force, and Comical Point. Charles Darwin and Clear Force drew adjacent to each other in gates 15 and 16, respectively, with Comical Point in post 6. Also likely to be prominent early is Ameeq from post 2 and Star Material from post 11.

Charles Darwin is the heavy favorite off two straight wins and is the only two-time winner in the field. He was an open length winner in both victories and has the connections and pedigree to help support his favoritism. My other top contender is the maiden Naval Light. He ran well on debut against experienced rivals, but third-place finisher Raakeb didn’t particularly flatter him when finishing seventh here on Tuesday.

I particularly like First Legion and Wise Approach for longshot plays. First Legion did beat Wise Approach at York in what was his debut and Wise Approach’s second career start. First Legion built on that with a runner-up effort in a listed race but proved a bit green. Continued racing experience will only help. Wise Approach, meanwhile, he could have had the distance disadvantage at York and could be aided by the cutback here. Plus, it’s hard to ignore any runner sporting the Godolphin blue and hailing from the Appleby barn.