Head to Head: 2 takes on a competitive Kentucky Oaks

Ashley

Laurie

1.  Tapit Jenallie (30-1)

Scratched

Scratched

2.  Gin Gin (30-1)

Trained by Brad Cox, Gin Gin has had an up-and-down career. She broke her maiden in her second start right here at Churchill Downs, was a distant second in the Rags to Riches, and failed to hit the board in the Golden Rod (G2) as a juvenile. She kicked off her 3-year-old season with a win in the Busanda at Aqueduct, then ran third in the Busher Stakes and third behind Where's My Ring and Regulatory Risk in the Gazelle (G3) in her most recent start. Florent Geroux, who rode her in all her Churchill Downs starts last year, reunites with the filly for her Oaks bid. If she couldn't win the bigger preps at Aqueduct, I don't see her winning here. Pass.

Gin Gin is the only filly in the field with a couple of 1 1/8-mile contests under her girth. She won the Busanda over a sloppy track and hasn't been off the board in two other races on off-tracks, including the Rags to Riches last year. A tired third in the Gazelle Stakes, this Brad Cox trainee had a sharp work with Tarifa at Churchill and looked better than expected, flashing early speed. I anticipate that she'll be closer to the pace than she has been in her last few races, and she prefers to be closer to the pace. I give her a long-shot exotics shot.

3.  Where's My Ring (15-1)

Trained by Val Brinkerhoff, Where's My Ring knocked at the winner's door for seven races before finally breaking her maiden last out as the favorite in the Gazelle (G3) at Aqueduct. Two starts back, she was a distant second to Kinza in the Santa Ysabel (G3). Though Where's My Ring was a decisive winner in the Gazelle (G3) and put up a career and field-best (tie) speed figure, she did so against a suspect field. I doubt she can win this, but she could get up for a minor award at a price. Use underneath.

Where's My Ring couldn't keep up with the California girls but dominated New York with a 4 1/2-length victory in the Gazelle. Twirling Candy's daughter earned a career-best 104 Brisnet rating, with a field-best 103 late pace rating. Twirling Candy has 16 percent off-track winners in routes. The main concern is whether Where's My Ring will regress from her huge effort. My inclination is yes. Pass.

4.  Regulatory Risk (20-1)

Trained by Chad Brown, Regulatory Risk has only one win in five starts. She lost by six lengths to Tarifa in her second start and 4 1/2 lengths to the former maiden Where's My Ring last out in the Gazelle. Gin Gin hit the board in the Busher while Regulatory Risk ran fifth, but Gin Gin then was third behind the Brown trainee last out. Additionally, Regulatory Risk's debut was at Churchill Downs, and she finished eighth that day, beaten by 9 3/4 lengths. Jose Ortiz has the call for the first time and will be her fifth jockey in six starts. Brown also takes the blinkers off for this race, an angle in which he wins at a 33 percent rate, 67 percent in the money. Pass.

Regulatory Risk has seen the tail ends of three Oaks contenders. Her best work is as a pacesetter but hasn't been given that chance in most of her races. The Chad Brown trainee had no excuse in the Gazelle. She pressed the pace, spent energy putting away the tired pacesetter, then drafted behind Where's My Ring as that one passed., but tailed off. The Chad Brown trainee earned a career-best speed rating of 99, but she isn't a top-tier type. Pass.

5.  Thorpedo Anna (5-1)

Trained by Kenny McPeek, Thorpedo Anna has never finished outside the exacta in her four career starts. She won three of her races by a combined margin of 21 1/2 lengths. Her lone loss was to Intricate in the Golden Rod (G2); Intricate was subsequently the runner-up in the Rachel Alexandra (G2) and fifth in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2). Thorpedo Anna is tied with Where's My Ring for the best Equibase speed figure at 101, which both fillies earned in their most recent races; Thorpedo Anna nearly went gate-to-wire in the Fantasy (G2) last out. This filly has the added distinction of having a victory at Churchill Downs. Beware the wrath of Mjölnir because this filly is fast! Regular rider Brian Hernandez Jr. retains the mount. Contender.

Thorpedo Anna had an excuse in last year's Golden Rod. She gave the field a three-length head start before rushing up to join the herd three wide. The Ken McPeek battled down the lane on her left lead and put away her competitors to keep second place. Thorpedo Anna returned to her confident, powerful ways in the Fantasy Stakes with a four-length victory, earning a 91 Brisnet rating, with plenty of room to improve. Fast Anna has 13 percent winners and 38 percent in the money in off-track routes. However, Thorpedo Anna's damsire, Uncle Mo, is an excellent mud sire. Class skipped a generation in her female family; Thorpedo Anna's second dam is a half to Grade 1 winner Eskendreya and Group 1-winning turf sprinter Balmont.  Contender.

6.  Lemon Muffin (30-1)

Trained by D. Wayne Lukas, Lemon Muffin had her coming-out party in the Honeybee (G3) when she upset even-money favorite West Omaha at odds of 28-1. Before that, she was eighth in her debut then ran second in four straight races before finally breaking her maiden in the Honeybee (G3). Last out, she was seventh in the Fantasy (G2), 10 3/4 lengths behind winner Thorpedo Anna. Lukas has only one victory from 38 starters in Grade 1 races over the last five years; that came in 2022 when Secret Oath won this very race. This will be jockey Keith Asmussen's third attempt at the highest level; he finished second in the Arkansas Derby (G1) with Kentucky Derby contender Just Steel for a record of 2: 0-1-0 in Grade 1 races. As much as I'd like to see Keith win with his first Oaks mount, I don't see it happening. Pass.

Who doesn't love a Lemon Muffin? This pretty gray filly has hit the board in all but two starts, five of them sprinting. She's been begging for two turns, and the Wayne Lukas trainee proved it with a 3 1/2-length long shot score to graduate in the Honeybee Stakes with a career-best 88 speed rating. Collected's daughter threw a clunker in the Fantasy in her last race, but that's to be expected after her earlier victory. Collected's progeny win at 15 percent with 47 percent in the money in mud routes. I'm inclined to give Lemon Muffin an exotics shot.

7.  Fiona's Magic (30-1)

Trained by Michael Yates, Fiona's Magic had never been out of the exacta in her career until she finished eighth, beaten by 44 3/4 lengths, last out in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2). She really had no excuse but likely did not appreciate the stretch-out around two turns. Yates has never won a grade one race but does pick up the services of Luis Saez for the Oaks. Fiona's Magic has only had one official work since the Gulfstream Park Oaks and will likely be part of the early pace. Pass.

Fiona's Magic is the most accomplished performer by second-crop sire St. Patrick's Day, American Pharoah's little brother. The Florida-bred filly has been most successful as a sprinter-miler, like her half-brother, restricted winner Cajun Breeze. Plus, none of St. Patrick's Day's progeny have won beyond a mile. Fiona's Magic will likely contest the pace in the Oaks and pull a disappearing act by the second call. Pass.

8.  Tarifa (7-2)

Another Brad Cox trainee, Tarifa is 5: 4-0-0 in her career. Her only career loss came at Churchill Downs in her second start. But she comes in off three straight victories, including the Rachel Alexandra (G2) and Fair Grounds Oaks (G2). She posted a career-high 99 Equibase speed figure in winning the Fair Grounds Oaks last out. Tarifa's sole loss came in her second career start when she finished fourth to Denim and Pearls, who is 5: 3-2-0 lifetime and will be contesting the Eight Belles (G2) on the Oaks undercard. Florent Geroux rode this filly in her first three starts, but Flavien Prat had the call for her two graded wins and retains the mount here. Contender.

Tarifa is 4-for-5, but this Brad Cox trainee isn't without flaws. She's very focused and won't relax. This was most evident in the Fair Grounds Oaks when she had to steady and was keen to take on the pacesetter before the first quarter while Flavien Prat kept her under a stranglehold. Once given her head, it was a battle of wills to the wire with Our Pretty Woman, but Tarifa prevailed by 3/4 length. Tarifa had a sharp five-furlong, 59.2-second pre-race breeze in company with Gin Gin. Tarifa was asked to sit a couple of lengths behind her mate, but she was very intense and under a stranglehold. She caught up to Gin Gin near the wire but only put a neck in front in the gallop out. Gin Gin came right back at her and put up a fight. Undoubtedly talented, this well-bred daughter of Bernardini hails from the female family of Tiznow; Cee's Son is her third dam, so distance isn't an issue physically. However, if Tarifa argues with Prat throughout the race, how much energy will she have left in the stretch? Exotics.

9.  Everland (30-1)

Trained by Eric Foster, Everland never has aced on traditional dirt. She debuted on the turf at Kentucky Downs and finished sixth, beaten by 12 1/4 lengths. Since, she has raced exclusively on Tapeta at Woodbine and Turfway Park. Her three career wins came in a maiden claiming race, a starter race and an upset victory in the Bourbonette Oaks. Foster has only one graded-stakes win in his career, and that came with Kitodan in the Dueling Grounds Derby (G3) in 2022. He's also only 7 percent, with a 35 percent in-the-money rate, with runners switching from all-weather to dirt over the last five years, according to Race Lens. Everland is bred for the dirt and earned a 100 Equibase speed figure for her Bourbonette Oaks victory, but she's really up against it here. Pass.

This well-bred, later-maturing filly was an astute claim made by her connections last year. Although she's by Arrogate, the pretty gray Everland has a solid turf pedigree; her second dam is multiple Group 1 winner Rainbow View, a leading 2-year-old filly in Europe. Although she won the Bourbonette, she'll likely be better on turf as she matures. Unless she takes to the mud, she won't be a factor here, even though Arrogate is a superior mud sire with 29 percent winners and 69 percent in the money in routes. Pass.

10. Into Champagne (30-1)

Trained by Ian Wilkes, Into Champagne has never been out of the trifecta in her four career starts. She began her career 2-for-2, including the Glitter Woman Stakes at Gulfstream. In her last two starts, she lost the Davona Dale (G2) by 1/2 length to Fiona's Magic and was third behind Power Squeeze and Ways and Means in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2). Her best Equibase speed figure is the 83 she received when winning the Glitter Woman. I don't see a win here, but her connections could toast to a minor award. Use underneath.

Into Champagne flashed speed and faded in both starts past six furlongs. Her Brisnet ratings are in the mid-80s, and she may be part of the early pace, but expect her to pop the cork around the second call. Pass.

11. Ways and Means (5-1)

Another Chad Brown trainee, Ways and Means is lightly raced with a career record of 3: 1-2-0. She finished a half-length behind Brightwork in the Spinaway (G1) as a juvenile and one length behind Power Squeeze in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2) after a nearly seven-month layoff. Brightwork did tail off after the Spinaway, finishing fifth in the Alcibiades (G1) and sixth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies and hasn't raced this year at all. Ways and Means has a career-high 89 Equibase speed figure, but after knocking the rust off last out, she should be highly considered. Tyler Gaffalione takes over from Irad Ortiz Jr. Contender.

Ways and Means was mugged around Gulfstream's first turn in her first start of the year. After ping-ponging between rivals, Irad Ortiz Jr. ran out of ways, so you know what that means – he had to steady back to fifth place. Ortiz took Ways and Means to the far outside and sent her after the leaders. The Chad Brown trainee looked like a winner until Power Squeeze passed just strides from the wire. Practical Joke's daughter is a half to Grade 1-winning turf miler surge Capacity and stakes-winning sprinter Highly Motivated. Practical Joke has a below-average 11 percent wins and 48 percent in-the-money rate in off-track routes. Ways and Means earned a career-best 94 speed rating. She's been firing bullets at Payson Park and Churchill and can improve on the effort. Contender.

12. Power Squeeze (12-1)

Trained by Jorge Delgado, Power Squeeze enters on a four-race winning streak dating back to October of last year. It took her three attempts to break her maiden, but once she did, she never looked back. Her victories include the Cash Run Stakes, the Suncoast Stakes, and the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2), where she defeated fellow entrants Ways and Means and Into Champagne. This will be jockey Daniel Centeno's first Kentucky Oaks mount, and the 52-year old is still searching for his first victory at the highest level. She doesn't have the greatest speed figures in the field (91 in her highest) but I think she could surprise here. Live long shot.

Power Squeeze ruled the Florida filly division this winter, capturing all three starts by a combined 8 3/4 lengths. She had to hit the brakes early in the Gulfstream Park Oaks traffic jam, but not as hard as Ways and Means. Daniel Centeno kept Power Squeeze on the rail for much of the race, so she had more energy down the lane than her rivals. By Union Rags out of a multiple stakes-winning daughter of Awesome Again, Power Squeeze should handle 1 1/8 miles. Union Rags' offspring have an average 12 percent winners and 46 percent in the money off track. Power Squeeze's late-pace figures, in the high 90's, are competitive in this field. She has tactical speed, and I agree with Ashley; she's a live long shot.

13. Just F Y I (9-2)

Trained by Bill Mott, Just F Y I went undefeated as a juvenile, winning the Frizette (G1), Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, and the Eclipse Award for champion 2-year-old filly. She most recently finished second to Leslie's Rose in the Ashland, beaten by 3-lengths, after a 5-month hiatus. I believe she needed to race to knock the rust off, and obviously the Oaks is the goal, not the prep race. Just F Y I's best Equibase speed figure is the 95 she earned in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. Regular rider Junior Alvarado retains the mount. Contender.

I've been in love with this filly since she won the Frizette. The long-striding filly moves so smoothly, and she's bred to love classic distances. The Bill Mott trainee had a minor setback this winter and was scratched from the Davona Dale. In the Ashland, Justify's daughter was hard-held in traffic early and farther back than her usual pace-pressing style. She went five wide around the turn and made a tepid bid down the stretch. Junior Alvarado didn't push her too hard; as Ashley stated, the goal is the Oaks. Just  F Y I recorded a 94 Brisnet rating with room to improve. Also, Justify has two starters, a winner and second place at 1 1/8 miles at Churchill. Just F  Y I can add to that tally. Contender.

14. Leslie's Rose (4-1)

Trained by Todd Pletcher, Leslie's Rose has only one loss in four career starts. That lone loss came in the Davona Dale (G2) when Fiona's Magic upset the field. The filly really blossomed in the Ashland. She sat just off the pace, and when she had open track in front of her off the far turn, she made a strong move to win by three lengths over champion Just F Y I. She received a career-best 98 Equibase speed figure for that effort. I don't love the outside post for Leslie's Rose, but I'm confident that regular rider Irad Ortiz Jr. will give her a winning ride. Contender.

Leslie's Rose had an excuse in her only loss in the Davona Dale Stakes. She had a rail trip behind the pace but had nowhere to go in the stretch when the hole on the inside was moving faster than she was. Irad Ortiz Jr. had to switch her to the outside late, losing valuable ground. Into Mischief's daughter is out of an unraced Galileo half-sister to Kentucky Oaks runner-up, My Miss Sophia, and Florida Derby hero Materiality, so distance shouldn't be a concern. Leslie's Rose has tactical speed and can improve further in her third start off the layoff. Contender.

15. Our Pretty Woman (15-1)

Trained by Steve Asmussen, Our Pretty Woman has been steadily improving throughout her short career. She won her career debut over a sloppy track, drawing off to a 3 1/4-length victory in the 1 mile 70 yard event. None from that field have even hit the board in subsequent starts. The filly caught another sloppy track in her second start; this time she won the 1 1/16-mile optional claimer by 4 1/4-lengths. Once again, she didn't beat much, but third-place finisher Ms Quality Control did run 3rd next out in the off-the-turf Allan Black Cat LaCombe Memorial Stakes. Our Pretty Woman raced over a fast track for the first time in her career when she ran in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) last out. She put in an incredibly game effort, fighting on despite being headed by Tarifa in the upper stretch and losing by just 3/4-length. Her Equibase speed figures have improved from an 81 to a 91 to a 98 in the Fair Grounds Oaks. Joel Rosario retains the mount for Asmussen. Considering that the track is likely to come up wet on Friday, Our Pretty Woman is a live long shot.

Our Pretty Woman set a comfortable pace in the Fairgrounds Oaks then grudgingly gave way after fighting down the lane with Tarifa. Although this Steve Asmussen trainee was clear of the third-place finisher V V's Dream by 3 1/4 lengths, that one was gaining on Our Pretty Woman. That tells me Our Pretty Woman is susceptible at 1 1/8 miles, especially against other speed types. Her half-brother finished out of the money in his only 1 1/8-mile start after setting the pace. Medaglia d'Oro’s daughter is out of a half-sister to Yate's Black Cat, a solid stakes competitor with 46 starts under his girth. Our Pretty Woman won her first two starts over an off-track, which isn't a concern. Toss.

           Ashley

           Laurie

13. Just F Y I (9-2)

13. Just F Y I (9-2)

5. Thorpedo Anna (5-1)

14. Leslie's Rose (4-1)

14. Leslie's Rose (4-1)

5. Thorpedo Anna (5-1)

8. Tarifa (7-2)

12. Power Squeeze (12-1)