Head to Head: Handicapping the Spinaway Stakes

ASHLEY

LAURIE

1. Kaling (7-2)

Kaling sat right off the pacesetter in her debut and took over in the stretch en route to a 2 3/4-length score. That victory came right here at Saratoga and earned her an 86 Brisnet speed figure. Todd Pletcher wins at a 21 percent clip with 2-year-olds and at a 25 percent rate with a last-out maiden winner. Contender.

Kaling’s beat some promising fillies in her debut; two returned to hit the board next out – Rarify (Runhappy’s little half-sis) and Take Charge Briana (whose family included Take Charge Brandi and Omaha Beach). However, Kaling’s final furlong was a pokey 13.98 seconds, and her final time was an average 1:12.69 for six furlongs. Kaling’s family includes Kentucky Oaks heroine Summerly. After her winning debut, Kaling posted two very nice works, including a five-furlong 59.66 seconds (2/17). The Pletcher trainee bested both mates without being asked through the wire and gallop out. Exotics.

2. Miss Georgie (30-1)

Miss Georgie went gate-to-wire in her debut at Laurel for trainer Lacey Gaudet. The daughter of Girvin received a 77 Brisnet speed figure for her effort. Gaudet is wheeling back her filly quickly, with there being just two weeks between Miss Georgie’s debut and the Spinaway. Unfortunately, Gaudet has yet to win a graded stakes.

This is an ambitious placing for Lacey Gaudet, the next-generation trainer in the Maryland-based Gaudet family. But hey, the experience will help; you can’t win it if you aren’t in it. That being said, the issue for Miss Georgie is class. Her 77 Brisnet speed rating is the lowest in the field, and there are few stakes winners in the female family. Pass.

3. Apple Picker (30-1)

Apple Picker debuted a winner in front-running fashion at Belmont, notching an 82 Brisnet speed figure. She came back a month later to finish 4th, beaten by 10 lengths, in the Adirondack (G3), which was won by Naughty Gal, with Sabra Tuff finishing 3rd. Apple Picker pressed Naughty Gal from the rail through the first half mile before giving way in the far turn. She’ll need to show the same form she showed in her debut in order to nab a piece of the Spinaway pie. Second dam Val Marie produced Grand Adventure, Canada’s 2010 Champion Turf Horse, lending some class to Apple Picker down the line.

Ashley noted that Apple Picker showed speed and faded in the Adirondack Stakes. Although she won her debut by four lengths, none of her rivals have returned to hit the board. Her ten-length drubbing in the Adirondack Stakes has me looking elsewhere. Pass.

4. Naughty Gal (8-1)

Naughty Gal was bothered late and could only manage fourth in her unveiling, but she bounced back smartly to win her second start by 9 1/4 lengths. She followed that up with a gate-to-wire triumph in the Adirondack (G3), defeating Sabra Tuff and Apple Picker. Win contender.

Naughty Gal could follow in the hoofprints of 2019 Spinaway heroine Perfect Alibi. Like Naughty Gal, Perfect Alibi had a trio of starts under her girth and won the Adirondack. Naughty Gal’s post-Adirondack breeze time of 49.49 seconds (6/16) for four furlongs was comparable to her previous work, which is a good sign. On the other hand, she blew the final turn in the Adirondack and was going up and down in the stretch until Saez got her back on track. She’s bred for speed top and bottom, so I’ll take a pass.

5. Just Cindy (5-1)

Just Cindy is undefeated in two starts, including a facile score in the Schuylerville (G3). She received a 91 Brisnet speed figure for that victory, which is the best dirt speed and last race speed rating in the field. Her second dam was multiple graded stakes winning Just Jenda, while her sire is none other than Triple Crown winner Justify. She already has a win over the surface, and look for her to stalk the pace. She does get her third rider change in as many starts, so do with that factoid what you will. Win contender.

In the Schuylerville, Just Cindy beat a a next out stakes winner, Vedareo, who returned to capture the Sorority Stakes at Monmouth by six lengths. Two others, Janice Joplin and Adora, were second next out in the Adirondack and Catch a Glimpse Stakes, respectively. Ashley noted that the Eddie Kenneally gets another jock switch, this time to Luis Saez. He’s hot this meet, having won 20% and hit the board in 52% of dirt sprints. Additionally, Just Cindy’s breeze pattern is two seconds faster than before the Schuylerville, a very positive sign. Win contender.

6. Leave No Trace (8-1)

Leave No Trace, a daughter of Outwork, debuted a winner here at Saratoga. She stalked the pace before pouncing in the stretch, drawing off to a five-length lead before being geared down late. Trainer Philip Serpe is succeeding with last-out maiden winners at a 33 percent rate. Look for this filly to sit right off the leaders until Jose Lezcano pushes the “go” button. Contender.

Leave No Trace lived up to her name in her debut, leaving them in the dust. The field contained two next-out winners and a third-place finisher, so there’s some quality there. Jose Ortiz jumps ship, er, horse, to Naughty Gal while Jose Lezcano picks up the mount. The jock is having a good meet, with 46% of his dirt sprint mounts hitting the board. Contender.

7. Sabra Tuff (20-1)

Sabra Tuff went gate-to-wire in her debut, winning by just a head. In her second start, she was 6 3/4 lengths behind winner Wonder Wheel in the Debutante while finishing second. Last out, she was third behind Naughty Gal in the Adirondack (G3). While her speed figures aren’t as high as some of the others in here, they have improved from start to start. With Dallas Stewart as her trainer, Sabra Tuff could be a live longshot.

Note that Sabra Tuff wired the field in her debut but was taken back to last in her next two starts despite breaking well. Stewart is known for his one-run closers, but that style doesn’t fit every horse. Enter Manny Franco, who is one of the best jocks to have on a front-running speed horse. Franco is winning dirt sprints at 20%, with 34% in the money this meet. I don’t see her upsetting the field, but hey, this is Saratoga, where that kind of thing happens. Worth a longshot look for lower exotics.

8. Aunt Shirley (5-1)

A homebred for WinStar Farm, Aunt Shirley won her debut in the slop at Ellis Park by 1/2 length. She gets a jockey upgrade to Irad Ortiz, Jr., who is having great success with sprinters and pace pressers this meet. This is a jump in class for the filly, but she is set up for success. Contender.

In her debut, Aunt Shirley beat two next-out winners. The impressive thing about the race was that Aunt Shirley squeezed through a narrow opening on the rail and didn’t back down despite being in tight. Aunt Shirley has a very impressive pedigree, although it’s very turf oriented. Her dam is a three-quarter sister to a multiple Group 1 winner, and her second dam is a full sister to Giant’s Causeway. The pedigree screams turf router, so the fact that Aunt Shirley won a five-furlong dirt sprint in a strong :57.27 is a nod to her class. The Ellis Park strip had some water in it but didn’t look muddy. Brisset has four wins and a third-place finisher from five 2-year-old starters in the last three months. Contender.

9. Wonder Wheel (3-1)

Wonder Wheel is undefeated in two starts and has not yet been truly tested, having won both starts by open lengths. Her Brisnet speed figure jumped from a 79 upon debut to an 89 for her Debutante score. Regular rider Tyler Gaffalione will be at Kentucky Downs for the weekend, so John Velazquez will be hopping aboard for the first time. Dam Wonder Gal is a multiple Grade 1 placed runner. If she takes to the Saratoga surface, look out. Contender.

Wonder Wheel could follow in the hoofprints of Casse’s 2016 Spinaway winner, Pretty City Dancer. Both entered the race with three previous starts, including open-length victories in the Debutante. Pretty City Dancer dead-heated in the Spinaway with Schuylerville winner Sweet Loretta that year. Wonder Wheel posted a second-to-last five-furlong bullet 59.40 seconds, so she’s handling the Saratoga surface just fine. Contender.

10. American Rockette (6-1)

American Rockette was scheduled to debut on the lawn, but the race came off the turf. Rallying from the back of the field, American Rockette roared down the Saratoga stretch to win by 2 1/2 lengths. She got a solid pace to close into, so the question becomes, what can she do with an average pace if things don’t get hot on the front end? However, with most of the speed drawn to the inside, she just may get the setup she needs. Contender.

American Rockette ate dirt in her debut, and the front runners were going up and down as she swept by the field to win going away by 2 1/2 lengths. One filly from that field returned to win, while four others failed to hit the board. American Rockette’s half-sister Frank’s Rockette placed in the Adirondack,  Spinaway, and Frizette Stakes for Mott as a 2-year-old, so her little sis is one to consider. Contender.