Head to Head: Handicapping the Sorrento Stakes
The Grade 2, $200,000 Sorrento Stakes at Del Mar attracted six juvenile fillies, half conditioned by Doug O'Neill. O'Neill is shooting for his third Sorrento trophy. He last stood in the Sorrento winner's circle in 2013 with Concave.
The Sorrento is carded as the ninth race of 10.
Ashley Tamulonis of Coast To Coast and I examine the closely-matched field and see things a little differently.
|
ASHLEY |
LAURIE |
|
This daughter of Not This Time would not be caught in her debut. The filly broke sharply from post two and never had a rival in front of her, lengthening her advantage through the stretch to win the five furlong affair by eight lengths. The Michael McCarthy trainee received a solid 84 Brisnet Speed Rating for her effort. She’s posted three works since then, most recently breezing four furlongs in 47.2 seconds. Win contender. |
Procrastination didn't delay in winning her debut by a powerful eight lengths at Los Alamitos, earning her the highest Brisnet speed rating in the field. The cleverly named daughter of Not This Time was impressive, beating six other fillies, but of the five that returned, only one hit the board in their next start. Contender. |
|
2. Vegas Magic |
|
|
By Grade 1 winner Good Magic, Vegas Magic is undefeated in two starts. She was a length winner upon debut at Santa Anita. Last month she closed with a rush to win the Everett Nevin Stakes by a determined nose. Despite winning, her speed figure regressed. Exotics. |
After winning her debut in June, Vegas Magic returned in the Everett Nevin Stakes at Pleasanton. After chasing a quick pace over a very deep track, The daughter of first-crop sire Good Magic stormed from the back of the pack and pulled off the victory by a nose. Not sure what she beat, and her speed ratings are iffy. Not dazzled by her tricks. Pass. |
|
Dazzlingdominika debuted on the turf. She was bumped at the start and never got involved in the race, passing tired rivals to finish 7th, 18-lengths behind the winner. In her second start, the Ghostzapper filly broke smartly from the rail and went on to win by a length, battling back after being headed. She will need to take another step forward, however, to win this. Exotics. |
In her second start at Churchill, Dazzlingdominika was passed for the lead but came back on the rail to win, getting five furlongs in a strong 58.73 seconds. The race produced a next-out winner and third-place finisher. Ghostzapper's daughter will make her first California start for Phil D'Amato. Dazzlingdominika gets her win-early skills from her female family; her dam is a half-sister to Grade 1 winning sprinter Heir Kitty, who was second against the boys in the Best Pal (G2). The filly's second dam is also a stakes-placed juvenile. Dazzlingdominika has a fast/slow work pattern, with a second-to-last bullet five furlongs in 58.80 seconds. Contender. |
|
Classymademoiselle has yet to get her picture taken in three career attempts. She was never a threat to Absolutely Zero in start one nor Procrastination in start two. Toss. |
Classymademoiselle is still trying to put it together. She broke poorly in all three starts, leaving her chasing the field. Her best finish was a distant third behind Procrastination in her second start. To top it off, Tyler Baze is trying to get his groove back, with only one win in 29 starts in dirt sprints this meet. Pass. |
|
5. Satin Doll |
|
|
Satin Doll came from the back of the field to win her debut by 1 1/2-lengths as the second longest shot in the field. She earned an 83 Brisnet Speed Rating and is the only filly in the field with a win at Del Mar. She will be looking for a hot pace to close into and is a danger to her favored stablemate if the pace falls apart. Exotics. |
Satin Doll circled the field and won her debut here by 1 1/2 lengths with her ears pricked, getting five furlongs in a sharp 57.98 second. The move earned the Doug O'Neill trainee the highest late pace figure in the field. Satin Doll gets a jock switch from Frey to Ramon Vazquez, who has 61 percent in the money in dirt sprints this meet. Contender. |
|
Absolutely Zero has done absolutely zero wrong, rattling off two straight victories to begin her career. The daughter of Nyquist boasts the highest speed figures in the field and is one of just two stakes winners in the field. She does not need the lead to win and has already proven that she has some fight in her as she battled back to win the Fasig-Tipton Futurity after being headed in the stretch. Win contender. |
Brought to you by the connections of Nyquist, who is this filly's sire, Absolutely Zero is the strongest of the O'Neill trio. She won her debut by a length, and four rivals returned to hit the board in their next outing. Next, she turned back all challengers while beating the boys in the Fasig-Tipton Futurity. Contender. |
|
|
|
|
Infinite Diamond scratched. |
|
Final
Thoughts
Ashley: This is an interesting field of six in that I
believe there is only one filly that can truly be tossed.
I expect Procrastination to waste no time zipping to the lead from the rail post. Dazzlingdominika will likely go with her, with Absolutely Zero settling just off them from the far outside post.
The other three should sort themselves out right behind that front-running trio. As they turn for home, Procrastination and Absolutely Zero will duke it out for top honors while Satin Doll winds up from the back of the field.
Laurie: Favorites won or placed 80 percent of the time in the last decade. Also 70 percent won their debut by three or more lengths, and pacesetters have dominated the last five years.
I agree with Ashley’s assessment of the pace scenario, and think Absolutely Zero could be the main threat. However, Procrastination fits the profile of the last five winners, having won her debut by open lengths.
I liked the way Satin Doll circled the field in her debut. She targeted and picked off her foes one by one, and put her ears up when she neared the wire, showing that she had more to give. I expect she’ll be closer to the pace in this small field, and could surprise.
SELECTIONS
|
Ashley |
Laurie |
|
6. Absolutely Zero (9-5) |
1. Procrastination (8-5) |
|
1. Procrastination (8-5) |
5. Satin Doll (5-1) |
|
5. Satin Doll (5-1) |
6. Absolutely Zero (9-5) |
|
3. Dazzlingdominika (4-1) |
3. Dazzlingdominika (4-1) |