Head to Head: Handicapping Silverbulletday, a Ky. Oaks prep

Ashley

Laurie

1.  Norah G (8-1)

By Fast Anna, Norah G is the star local. In her three-race career, she has started exclusively at Fair Grounds and gone 3: 2-1-0, missing perfection by a neck. But she has raced exclusively in state-bred company, and she showed sharply declining form last out; she earned an 85 Brisnet Speed Rating in her first two starts but only a 66 rating in the Louisiana Futurity. Look for this filly to press the early pace, but whether she can route remains to be seen, as this will be her first start going longer than six furlongs. Pass.

Norah G takes on the big girls in open company after beating up on state-breds. While it’s true that her last speed rating was poor, the track, listed as good (sealed), looked gummy and wet, and the other races on the card had slow final furlongs. If the Patricia West trainee runs back to her form in her second start, she’s worth an exotics play at a price.

2.  Cotton Candy Annie (20-1)

It took this daughter of Sharp Azteca six attempts to finally get her picture taken. First, Armando Hernandez tried her sprinting, at a mile, and on turf, but it wasn’t until he dropped her into maiden claiming company and stretched her out to 1 1/16 miles that she finally put everything together to get the win. She made it two in a row when winning an optional claimer but could manage only seventh, beaten 17 lengths, last out in the Untapable in her only prior start at Fair Grounds. Her best Brisnet Speed Rating is the 77 she earned winning the optional claimer two starts back. Pass.

Cotton Candy Annie has hit the board in four of eight starts, but as Ashley noted, it was against lesser types. This is an ambitious spot for her, and she hasn’t indicated that she’ll be up to the task. Pass.

3.  Hayunevano (8-1)

Another local filly, Hayunevano, is by Goldencents. In 3 starts, she is 1-0-1, her only victory in a 1 1/16-mile maiden race. Last out, she was fourth in the Untapable. Her Brisnet Speed Ratings have stayed consistent, ranging between 75 and 81. She does her best running on the lead, so expect Marcelino Pedroza Jr. to hustle her to the lead. Pass.

Hayunevano regressed in the Untapable 17 days after a strong 5 3/4-length win against maidens. She had a three-wide trip in the Untapable and got a little leg weary in the stretch, but overall, it wasn’t a bad effort. If she runs back to her maiden score, Hayunevano coluld hang on for a piece. Exotics.

4.  The Alys Look (3-1)

Trained by Brad Cox, it took The Alys Look a few tries to figure things out. She was third on debut going seven furlongs and seventh in the slop going 1 1/16 miles. In her first start at Fair Grounds, the Connect filly got the monkey off her back with a smart seven-length triumph going 1 mile, 70 yards. Last out, she was second in the Untapable in her stakes debut. She earned 84 Brisnet Speed Ratings in her last two starts. Cox is striking at a 25 percent rate in routes and 23 percent rate in non-graded stakes. Cox and jockey Luis Saez, who will take over for regular rider Florent Geroux, are winning at a 67 percent clip. Contender.

The Alys Look beat a suspect field of maidens by seven lengths then returned to finish a decent second in the Untapable Stakes after a wide trip. As Ashley noted, Cox and Saez have a high winning percentage, and The Alys Look is stakes-placed. Contender.

5.  Chop Chop (8-5)

Also from the Cox barn, Chop Chop, who went undefeated on turf in her first two starts, successfully transferred her form to dirt when losing the Alcibiades (G1) by a nose. She then disappointed as the favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) when finishing 13th, beaten by 14 lengths. The 91 Brisnet Speed Rating she received in the Alcibiades is the highest in the field. Along with Cox’s other playable angles, take note that he is scoring at a 27 percent clip with shippers, a 31 percent clip with beaten favorites, and at a 22 percent rate with 46- to 90-day layoffs. Florent Geroux hopped off The Alys Look in favor of riding Chop Chop, and he and Cox are winning together at a 37 percent rate. Contender.

Chop Chop is the class of the field and capable over dirt and turf. She battled likely 2-year-old champ Wonder Wheel to a nose decision in the Alcibiades and was flattered by the loss when Wonder Wheel got the better trip in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. Draw a line through that race for Chop Chop. She had a horrendous wide trip the entire way with no effort by Rosario to save ground, and to her credit, Chop Chop made up ground during the race before tiring. By City of Light out of a half-sister to veteran handicap horse Rail Trip, Chop Chop is bred to appreciate the longer stretch of the Fair Grounds. Geroux takes the mount, and he’s winning dirt routes at a 39 percent clip at Fair Grounds. Contender.

6.  Amber Cascade (6-1)

By the flashy Free Drop Billy, Amber Cascade is 3: 1-1-0 lifetime, with her only victory coming at Fair Grounds when stretching out to 1 1/16 miles. Her Brisnet Speed Ratings have jumped at least 10 points with each start culminating with an 87 last out, the best last race speed rating in the field. Although she won that race by 3 3/4 lengths, the final time for the 8 1/2 furlongs was a pedestrian 1:47.23. Dam Heart’s Song was Grade 3 placed and is a half-sister to grade one winner Delosvientos. Trainer Cherie DeVaux and jockey David Cohen won the only other start that they paired up on. Use underneath.

Amber Cascade won over the same sealed track as Norah G. She was flattered when the only rival to return to the races won their next start. If this DeVaux trainee continues to improve, she’s worth a long-shot look. Contender.

7.  Forest Chimes (4-1)

The least experienced in the field, Forest Chimes has made one start, a devastatingly easy 7 1/2-length triumph in a 1 1/16-mile maiden event on New Year’s Eve at Fair Grounds. She received an 84 Brisnet Speed Rating for her effort despite a final time of 1:47.34. Trainer Jason Barkley is succeeding at a 22 percent clip with maiden winners and at a 21 percent rate in non-graded stakes. Half-sister Top Decile was dual Grade 1 placed, and her distaff line has several black-type earners and producers. Barkley and jockey Corey Lanerie won their only other start together. Use underneath.

Forest Chimes made a decisive five-wide move in her debut and opened up by 7 1/2 lengths. Jason Barkley takes the blinkers off Forest Chimes, but over the last three years, the trainer has a 4 percent win rate with horses making their second career start. Exotics.