Head to Head: See two sides of Keeneland's Raven Run Stakes

Laurie

Ashley

1.  Union Lake (6-1)

Union Lake was softened up by pressing a blazing early pace (21.97 and 44.99 seconds) while traveling three-wide in the Prioress (G2). Then she was bumped between horses in the stretch. While no match for Wicked Halo on her outside, Union Lake didn't quit but was passed late by the fast-closing Sterling Silver. It was an excellent effort for her first start against stakes horses, and she should improve. Plus, the John Terranova trainee benefits from the rail this time. Ashley pointed out that Union Lake's Brisnet speed ratings have improved in her last three starts. However, she expends her energy during the race's first half, and her late pace ratings are lower than I'd like to see against this group. Pass.

A sloppy track probably had a lot to do with Union Lake fading to last in her debut after having the lead at one point. She then won her next two starts and most recently finished third, three lengths behind winner Wicked Halo, in the Prioress (G2), which was her graded stakes debut. The daughter of Speightster's Brisnet speed ratings improved over her previoust two starts, culminating with a 97 in the Prioress. This will be her first attempt at seven furlongs, however, as all four prior starts were at six furlongs. Use underneath.

2.  Smash Ticket  (5-2)

Smash Ticket improved after switching to Rob Atras' Saratoga barn, scoring two triple-digit Brisnet speed ratings. She was flattered after her initial start at the Spa when the runner-up won her next outing by six lengths, and the third- and fifth-place runners both finished third in their next starts. Midnight Lute's free-running daughter adds a furlong and will be pressed while stepping up in company while on the lead. Because of this, I don't see her as a lock for the win. Use underneath.  

A daughter of Midnight Lute, Smash Ticket enters the Raven Run on a three-race win streak. In six career starts, she's never been worse than third. She debuted with a second vs. Wicked Halo. In her third career start, she found all sorts of trouble in the Sorrento (G2), getting bumped and checked at the start and being steadied at the 1/2-mile call. Since then, she's been unbeatable. She earned triple-digit Brisnet speed figures in her last two starts, including a field best 102 when winning the Weather Vane last out. Contender.

3.  Republique (15-1)

Saffie Joseph, Jr. is trying to figure out where Republique fits in the 3-year-old filly division. She's a solid optional claimer, can run on all surfaces, and has tactical speed. But her speed figures and two forays into stakes company are her weakness. I think she'll be baked by the competition. Pass.

Republique is an interesting entrant. She began her career with two wins over Gulfstream's new all-weather track. She was then a distant fourth in the Delaware Oaks (G3) on dirt, behind winner Midnight Stroll. Start four saw her off the board again, this time on turf. But in her last outing, trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr. successfully put her back on dirt. Her best Brisnet speed figure is an 88, and she has consistently run numbers between 77 and 88. Pass.

4.  Last Leaf (12-1)

Last Leaf brings to mind the days when good horses didn't sit in the barn for months while trainers carefully plotted their next starts. Not This Time's daughter has hit the board in 10 of 16 starts in her career. A two-time winner at seven furlongs, Last Leaf just couldn't get it together in the Dogwood (G3) in her first start for Eddie Kenneally. Over the last five years, the trainer recorded a 32 percent win rate, 65 percent in the money, with horses making their second start. Last Leaf has shown tactical speed, so she could pick up the pieces for lower exotics if there's a swift early piece, but I'm looking elsewhere. Pass.

This will be Last Leaf's 17th career start, something nearly unheard of for a 3-year-old these days. The Not This Time filly has raced on dirt and turf and has wins on both surfaces. This year has been hit or miss; she's gone 9: 4-0-1. She rattled off three straight stakes wins but had that streak snapped when finishing off the board in the Dogwood (G3) last out, a race in which Colorful Mischief was third. She's a useful sort, but I think she's outclassed here. Pass.

5.  Fingal's Cave  (4-1)

I got all excited when I saw how thoroughly Fingal's Cave demolished her competition in her four lifetime starts. Then I took a closer look. All starts have been against state-breds, and she's only run a sub-13-second final furlong once, in her debut. Also, her final time for seven furlongs is a full second slower than most of her competitors times at the distance. So, is she a big fish in a small pond, or is she the real deal? Guess we'll find out. Exotics.

Fingal's Cave brings an undefeated record to the starting gate, but before you get too excited, there's a catch. Three of those wins were in state-bred company. There's a good bit to like, though. She has won at distances from six to nine furlongs. All four of her races have resulted in Brisnet speed figures in the 90s, with her best figure a 96. If she can bring that same form to open company, she just might have a shot. Use underneath but consider the top slot too.

6.  Colorful Mischief  (12-1)

Colorful Mischief gave an average performance in the Dogwood (G3), but if she runs back to her previous form, when she bested Wicked Hot by a half-length in a Saratoga allowance race, Colorful Mischief could cause some havoc. The downside is that regular jock Tyler Gaffalione stays with Wicked Halo, and Gerardo Corrales takes the mount. Corrales has won two races from 22 dirt sprints this meet. An exotics finish is possible, but I'll pass.

Colorful Mischief's past performances gave me a chuckle. The Into Mischief filly either wins or finishes third, and she has established a lose-win-lose pattern. In her most recent outing, she finished third in the Dogwood (G3), which was her graded stakes debut. If she continues on with the pattern she's shown thus far, then she's on the win side of things. The downside to this filly, however, is her speed figures. Her best Brisnet figure is the 95 she earned two starts back. She earned a 77 in her debut and 87s in her other three starts. She's going to need to run a career best to win here. Exotics.

7.  Freedom Speaks  (6-1)

Freedom Speaks' sole defeat was a troubled second-place finish behind Last Leaf in the Game Face Stakes at Gulfstream. First, she bobbled out of the gate, breaking slowly, then she steadied slightly and switched lanes for racing room. The trouble continued as Freedom Speaks became headstrong and ping-ponged off a horse going around the turn, all before the half-mile pole. She made a four-wide move around the turn but was no match for Last Leaf, yet Freedom Speaks held off the fast-closing third-place finisher. It was a lot to handle for her second career start, while Last Leaf was making her ninth. After switching to Jeremiah Englehart's barn, American Freedom's daughter flourished while winning two turf races, including the 6 1/2 furlong Whiskey Music City Stakes at Kentucky Downs, where she made up ground while running uphill. Now the blinkers come off, and she switches to dirt. Ashley notes the trainer wins at 32 percent with the surface switch. He also has a 21 percent win, 51 percent in the money stat for blinkers off. This pretty gray filly has shown determination and drive in all starts. She's comfortable racing between horses, and if Florent Geroux can keep her out of trouble, Freedom Speaks could surprise. Worth an exotics look.

Freedom Speaks' only career loss in four starts came on the dirt. She won her career debut on Gulfstream's all-weather track. Then she won her most recent two starts on the lawn, including a head win in the Music City at Kentucky Downs, where she earned a career-best 92 Brisnet speed figure. In her lone dirt start, she finished a valiant second to Last Leaf in the Game Face after bobbling, being steadied, and then getting bumped. Trainer Jeremiah Englehart wins at a 32 percent clip with turf-to-dirt runners, and the filly gets Florent Geroux for the first time. She could surprise us here. Use underneath.

8.  Wicked Halo  (4-1)

Pay attention when you see a Gun Runner foal out of a Tapit mare. From 16 starters with this cross, nine are winners, and three are graded or listed winners. Wicked Halo has hit the board in eight of nine lifetime and looks to add a fourth straight victory to her resume in the Raven Run. The Steve Asmussen trainee's career-best Brisnet speed rating of 102 was a 15-point jump from her previous win, although she's had 50 days to recover. Even if she regresses slightly number-wise, Wicked Halo will be tough to beat. Contender.

By the red-hot Gun Runner, Wicked Halo has been on fire herself. She brings a three-race win streak to the table and has only been off the board once. Last out, she ran a career-best race, earning a 102 Brisnet speed rating, a field best, when winning the Prioress (G2). Tyler Gaffalione, who was aboard in her last three starts, retains the mount for trainer Steve Asmussen. I am worried that this filly might bounce off her big effort at Saratoga, but I do trust that Asmussen has her ready to roll. Contender.

9.  Midnight Stroll (10-1)

Midnight Stroll closed with a wide sustained drive to get third place in the Charles Town Oaks (G3), behind stakes-record-setting Society. Not This Time's daughter previously won the 1 1/6 mile Delaware Oaks (G3), besting Shotgun Hottie, second best next out in the Monmouth Oaks (G3). Third place Morning Matcha also returned to win an allowance race. So Midnight Stroll has shown the class to run with this group, and her best effort could put her in the winner's circle. The meet's fifth-leading rider, Luis Saez, takes the reins. Live long shot.

It took Midnight Stroll three attempts and two class drops to break her maiden. She then won a state-bred stakes at Tampa Bay Downs before finishing a distant ninth in the Black-Eyed Susan (G2). She won the Delaware Oaks (G3) by a head but finished a distant third in the Charles Town Oaks in her most recent start. Society, the winner that day, came back to win the Cotillion (G1). She earned a career best 96 Brisnet speed figure in Delaware but typically posts figures in the high 80s. I'm on the fence here, but I think I will ultimately pass.