Head to Head: Handicapping the Pennsylvania Derby

ASHLEY

LAURIE

1.  Zandon (5-1)

Zandon has been the very model of consistency for trainer Chad Brown, winning the Blue Grass (G1), always in the trifecta and posting four consecutive triple-digit Beyer figures. While he does have a Grade 1 win, he has yet to defeat the best of his class. Jockey Flavien Prat has opted to ride We the People, so Joel Rosario will hop back aboard for the first time since the colt's debut. Use underneath.

Zandon is a lovely colt but a cut below Epicenter and Cyberknife. The Chad Brown trainee beat Rich Strike for third in the Travers and Tawny Port for second in the Jim Dandy (G2). He's never finished out of the money, and I expect he'll hit the board here. Exotics.

2.  Icy Storm (30-1)

Icy Storm takes a huge step up in class against proven grade one types. He owns four wins in 10 lifetime starts, but four of those victories came in claiming races. His best speed figure is a mediocre 83. Pass.

Icy Storm is a decent claiming/allowance type. The first of two "Why is he in here?" horses, I'm giving him the cold shoulder. Pass.

3.  B Dawk (20-1)

It took B Dawk five starts to break his maiden, but when he finally did so, he did it in style. Under Tyler Gaffalione, the son of Gormley blitzed a $100,000 maiden field by 11 lengths, earning a 98-speed figure. He ran second in the Sir Barton right afterward, then ran fifth in an allowance and first in his most recent start. But he hasn't faced much, and as with Icy Storm, this is a big class hike. Pass.

A distant second in the Sir Barton, B Dawk could be a decent allowance/minor stakes type. I'm surprised Doug O'Neil would toss him into Grade 1 company. Maybe Taiba needed company on the plane ride. Pass.

4.  Skippylongstocking (10-1)

Mud excellence didn't skip a generation with this son of Exaggerator. Over a sloppy track at Mountaineer, this colt skipped to his first graded-stakes score in the West Virginia Derby (G3). The 101 Beyer figure paired nicely for the 107 and the 105 figures he earned when finishing third in the Wood Memorial (G2) and Belmont (G1), respectively, both of which were on a fast track. Skippylongstocking certainly can run well on either surface, but if it rains, definitely play him on top. Contender.

Skippylongstocking does his best work pressing the pace, and he's improved this summer. He's finished ahead of We the People twice and Simplification once. Not a top-ranked horse, but capable of hitting the board. Exotics.

5.  Cyberknife (3-1)

Haskell hero Cyberknife showed his win at Monmouth wasn't a fluke when he came back to run a strong second to division leader Epicenter in the Travers (G1). He earned a 104 at the Jersey Shore and a 105 speed figure at the Spa. Cutting back to 1 1/8 miles certainly puts this son of Gun Runner comfortably back in his preferred wheelhouse, though it's a bit unfair to say he doesn't like 10 panels with any certainty. Regular rider Florent Geroux retains the mount. Contender.

In the Haskell, Cyberknife slipped up the rail to win by a head, while Tabia took the overland route. The Brad Cox trainee is as game as they come, and while he was no match for Epicenter in the Travers, Cyberknife held off Zandon for second place at a distance that doesn't suit either colt. Facing Tabia and Zandon again, the million-dollar question is, "Can he do it again?" Win contender.

6.  We the People (12-1)

Off a sparkling Peter Pan (G3) victory, We the People entered the Belmont (G1) highly touted, in large part because of the 10-length win margin and the 108 speed figure. He ran a respectable fourth in the Belmont (104 Beyer Speed Figure) but lost the West Virginia Derby (100 Beyer) as the favorite. In past races, he has been beaten by Cyberknife and Skippylongstocking. Pass.

The free-running We the People had no excuse in the West Virginia Derby, and he's vulnerable at 1 1/8 miles against legitimate graded-stakes types. Yes, he was an impressive winner of the Peter Pan; but only one rival earned a stakes placing since then. He'll take them as far he can in the Pennsylvania Derby but will fade like the last vestiges of summer down the stretch. Pass.

7.  Tawny Port (6-1)

Earlier this year, Tawny Port annexed the Lexington (G3) and the Ohio Derby (G3) but has had no luck against Cyberknife, White Abarrio, Zandon and division leader Epicenter. His best career speed rating is the 105 he received when saving the show in the Jim Dandy (G2). If he runs back to that effort, he will have a serious shot at upsetting the apple cart. Exotics.

As Ashley noted, Tawny Port earned a career-best speed rating in the Jim Dandy (G2). A legitimate Grade 3 type, he's finished behind Zandon three times. Still, the Brad Cox trainee manages to hit the board more often than not. Lower exotics.

8.  Taiba (5-2)

Someone make this make sense. Taiba loses to Cyberknife in the Haskell and is somehow favored over him on the morning line. While Taiba was sitting in his stall, Cyberknife was running a very credible second in the Travers to none other than Epicenter. With that rant out of the way, I must give credit where credit is due. This son of Gun Runner won the Santa Anita Derby (G1) in just his second start, participated in the Kentucky Derby (G1) in his third start, and ran a winning, albeit losing, race in the Haskell (G1) in his fourth start. He has posted triple-digit speed figures in three of those races, the exception being when he was 12th in the Kentucky Derby. Does he belong here? Oh, absolutely. Is he the deserving favorite? Not until he beats the best in the field. Contender.

I'll make sense of it for you, Ashley. Taiba ran a winning race in the Haskell. He had to go four wide while Cyberknife skimmed the rail. Additionally, that was Taiba's first outing in 2 1/2 months and his first since returning to Baffert's barn. He's been brilliant in all starts, other than the Kentucky Derby fiasco, and with a better trip, Tabia can turn the tables on Cyberknife. This lightly raced colt is still learning. Win contender.

9.  Simplification (10-1)

Simplification had a great run in Florida, winning the Mucho Macho Man and the Fountain of Youth (G2) while running second in the Holy Bull (G3) and third in the Florida Derby (G1). Since then, life hasn't been so good. He was a surprise fourth in the Kentucky Derby but could only muster sixth in the Preakness and third in the West Virginia Derby. His only triple-digit speed score came in his dirt debut, which was against state-breds. Pass.

1 1/8 miles isn't Simplification's best distance. The highlight of his career was the Fountain of Youth, and as Ashley pointed out, life hasn't been so simple since then. If he shortens up at Gulfstream this winter, he could return to winning ways, but for now, pass.

10.             Naval Aviator (20-1)

One thing I really appreciate about Naval Aviator is that his (winning) debut was contested at nine furlongs. Since then, this son of Tapit has not competed at anything less than 1 1/16 miles while putting together a 7: 3-2-0 résumé. Ernesto Padílla-Preciado is his current trainer, but this son of Tapit previously has been under the tutelage of Brad Cox and Joe Sharp. The two races in which he finished off the board came on the turf and on a sloppy track. Call me crazy, but this is a live exotics long shot.

Naval Aviator improved under Joe Sharp's care to win a claiming event and a couple of allowance races. Now he's in the care of Pennsylvania-based trainer Ernesto Padílla-Preciado. It's a huge jump in class, and there are others l like better. Pass.

11.             White Abarrio (8-1)

The two Gulfstream Derby preps not won by Simplification were won by White Abarrio. So far, although he has run well at other tracks, his only wins have been at Gulfstream Park. In his most recent start, the son of Race Day finished seventh, beaten 34 lengths by Cyberknife and Taiba. He hasn't raced since but has been cranking out nice works for trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. With no triple-digit speed figures and average to piddling showings at any other venue than Gulfstream, I have to Pass.

The pretty gray Florida Derby winner had his confidence badly shaken in the Kentucky Derby. In the Ohio Derby (G3), White Abarrio was locked in between Tawny Port and Classic Causeway. Tawny Port on the outside inched clear while White Abarrio had his hooves full with a stubborn Classic Causeway. White Abarrio put away that rival as the wire loomed but couldn't catch Tawny Port. However, White Abarrio galloped out in front of that rival. Saffie Joseph Jr. won the 2019 edition of the Pennsylvania Derby with Math Wizard, who wasn't as accomplished as White Abarrio, but he was faster. Pass.