Head to Head: Handicapping the Iroquois Stakes

ASHLEY

LAURIE

1. Hayes Strike (12-1)

This son of Connect debuted in July and finished a very distant eighth while racing at the back of the field. However, he was on the pace in his next start and drove home a winner by 4 1/2-lengths. Both starts were at Ellis Park. While the rail has a 20% win clip, Hayes Strike’s speed figures won’t help take advantage of that. Toss.

Hayes Strike wasn’t ready for prime time in his debut, but he sure was on his game in his second start. Brian Hernandez, Jr. got Hayes Strike into the game early, and the McPeek trainee never felt the touch of the whip. Connect’s son is a half-brother to Grade 3 stakes winner Senior Investment, who placed third in the 2017 Preakness. Half-brother General Downs is a stakes-winning miler, and their dam is a multiple stakes-winning miler, so Hayes Strike should have no issues with the extra half-furlong. McPeek and Hernandez teamed to win the 2018 Iroquois Stakes with Caro Cat. Exotics.

2. Zaici (30-1)

By the late Laoban, Zaici was sixth on debut while racing off the pace. He bounced back to take his second start in front-running fashion but reverted back to racing off the pace in the Juvenile Stakes at Ellis Park, finishing a well-beaten fifth. He certainly seems to run better on the lead, but he will need to greatly improve to handle the favorites. Toss.

Zaici sandwiched a 1 3/4-length win between two bad beats, including a 20-length drubbing in the Ellis Park Juvenile with no apparent excuse. He switched to Ricky Courville’s barn after the Juvenile. Over the last five years, Courville has a 10% win rate with the trainer switch. So, which Zaici will show up for the Iroquois? Anyone’s guess, but I agree with Ashley; he’s a Toss.

3. Damon’s Mound (5-2)

Damon’s Mound is undefeated in two starts, including mildly upsetting the Saratoga Special (G2). The son of Girvin typically presses the pace but can go to the lead if necessary. His pair of 93-speed figures are some of the best in the field. Contender.

Undefeated and untested, Damon's Mound beat quality runners in his debut and in the Saratoga Special  (G2). Notable next-out runners exiting the Special include Gulfport, second in the Hopeful (G1), and Super Chow, 6 1/4-length allowance winner. In his debut, Damon’s Mound beat three next-out winners, including Mayfield Strong, fourth in the Kentucky Downs Juvenile Mile in his last start, and Frosted Departure, fourth in the Ellis Park Juvenile. Trainer Michelle Lovell gave Girven’s son a pre-race stamina work of six furlongs. Win Contender.

4. Jin Tong (15-1)

Jin Tong got up in time to win his debut by a  half length. In his second start, the Best Pal (G3), he was never involved and finished 11 lengths behind winner Havnameltdown, who most recently finished second in the Del Mar Futurity (G1). With Baffert holding all the aces in California, Doug O’Neill must be looking for a softer spot for this colt. Unfortunately, I don’t think he found it. Toss.

In his debut, Jin Tong beat a so-so group of maidens at Los Alamitos, but he couldn’t carry the momentum into the Best Pal Stakes (G3). While he made up some ground to finish fifth behind Havnameltdown, this O’Neill trainee was tired physically and mentally, going up and down in the stretch with little forward movement. He could rebound here, but I’ll take a pass. Toss.

5. Curly Jack (5-1)

Curly Jack debuted a winner for Tom Amoss back in June. He has not since visited the winner’s circle, finishing 5th in the Sanford (G3) and second in the Juvenile Stakes at Ellis Park, the same race Zaici exits. He was the favorite that day but faltered in deep stretch and had to settle for the place. He received a 93-speed figure for that effort, making him one of the best in the field numbers-wise. Contender.

Curly Jack fought on the lead in the six-furlong Sanford (G3) but ran out of oats after completing a half-mile in 45.94 seconds. He finished a nondescript fifth. Tom Amoss switched Curly Jack’s running tactics for the seven-furlong Ellis Park Juvenile and was rewarded with a close second-place finish. Good Magic’s son bumped at the start and raced behind the pace before making a sweeping three-wide move in the stretch. Unfortunately, Curly Jack missed the photo head-bob, and the final furlong was a snail-like 13.42. Curly Jack is out of a Grade 1-placed mare, and his half-sister Fannie and Freddie is multiple stakes-placed. Curly Jack’s speed figures improved in his last start, and he must be considered. Contender.

6. Jace’s Road (7-2)

Jace’s Road enters the Iroquois off a solid, 6 1/2-length victory in his career bow. He tracked the pace before taking over in the stretch and drawing away. Based on that effort, which was given a 90-speed figure, Jace’s Road looks like one that will take another step forward. Contender.

Jace's Road pressed the pace three-wide in his debut, then drew off under a hand ride, getting six furlongs in 1:09.80 and his final furlong in a good 12.22 seconds. Six rivals returned, and three hit the board in their next outing. The Cox trainee posed a second-to-last bullet five furlongs in 59.8 seconds. Over the last five years, 2-year-olds jumping into stakes in their second start win 33% and hit the board 58% of the time for Brad Cox. Contender.

7. Honed (12-1)

Honed was a very determined winner upon debut, dueling down the stretch to come away with the victory by a head. It was only a four-horse field due to the race originally scheduled for the turf. Of the three that he beat that day, only third-place finisher Anglophile came back to win next out. Add that to the dismal 68-speed figure he earned, and Honed is a Toss.

In his debut at Ellis Park, Honed was all out to beat two rivals by a head, getting a mile in 1:39.48, and his final furlong in 13.46 seconds. By Sharp Azteca, Honed is out of a City Zip mare, so he’s bred for speed top and bottom. Honed’s half-sister Ali Blue is a multiple stakes-placed sprinter. Only one of Honed’s six half-siblings won beyond a mile, over the turf. Toss.

8. Confidence Game (12-1)

Out of Zenyatta’s half-sister Eblouissante, Confidence Game had the misfortune to debut against Damon’s Mound. He secured the show but was thirteen lengths behind the winner. However, his confidence got a boost in his second start, which he took gate-to-wire, lengthening his advantage at every call. He only earned an 80-speed figure, however, so this nicely bred colt will need to take another step forward in order to tangle with Damon’s Mound. Exotics.

Confidence Game broke slowly in his debut but made up ground to earn third place behind Damon's Mound. The Keith Desormeaux trainee rebounded to win his next start by five lengths under an aggressive hand ride, getting six furlongs in 1:11.30, but his final furlong was a so-so 13.11 seconds. Desormeaux has 9% wins and 30% in the money with juvenile stakes horses over the last five years. Although Confidence Game’s speed rating improved in his second start, his late pace rating is one of the lowest in the field. Nevertheless, as a sentimental fan favorite, I hope he does well down the road. Toss.

9. Echo Again (2-1)

Echo Again was a sharp first out winner as the odds-on favorite last month at Saratoga. By Gun Runner, the colt led every step of the way en route to a 6 3/4-length trouncing of his competition. He received a sparkling 99-speed figure, the best in the field and nearly as good as Del Mar Futurity (G1) winner Cave Rock’s debut figure. Oddly, Ricardo Santana, Jr. will not be aboard for the colt’s second start despite riding at Churchill on Saturday. Contender.

Echo Again was a buzz horse at Saratoga after his 6 3/4-length victory. He traveled 6 1/2 furlongs in 1:15.89. Echo Again is a full brother to stakes placed Costa Terra and a half to listed winner Pneumatic. Their stakes-placed dam is a three-quarter sister to Grade 1 winner Pyro, so big things are expected from the pretty gray colt. Asmussen’s juveniles jumping into stakes competition in their second start have won 24% and hit the board 56% in the last five years. Contender.