Head to Head: Handicapping the Hopeful Stakes

LAURIE

ASHLEY

1. Western Ghent (30-1)

Western Ghent’s is still learning, but he’s starting to put it together mentally. He won when dropped to the $75,000 maiden claiming level but, more importantly, switched to a pacesetting style. The Lukas trainee had the lead in the stretch but lost focus while between horses and passed by the favorite. Once in the clear, Western Ghent regrouped and surprised everyone with a head victory in a decent 1:12.87 for six furlongs. By American Pharoah, out of a stakes-placed daughter of Malibu Moon, Western Ghent has a later-maturing pedigree and one of the best mud pedigrees in the field. Although I agree with Ashley that the Hopeful is a tough spot, the jock switch is positive. Luis Saez is the meet’s fourth-leading rider and has a 20 percent win rate in dirt sprints this meet — the highest in the field. Look where he lands. He teamed with Lukas to win the 2017 Hopeful. I’ve said it before: Lukas is sneaky. Long shot exotics.

Western Ghent was never involved in his first three races, losing by a combined 60 1/2 lengths while racing at the back of the field. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas dropped the colt from high-dollar maiden races into maiden claiming company for his fourth start, resulting in a win from the front end. He now jumps way up in class again and gets his fifth different rider in as many starts. Toss.

2. Forte (3-1)

Forte was spectacular, beating a whole bunch of nothing in his debut in May. Although a couple of his rivals hit the board next out, none have discovered the winner’s circle. In addition, one finished 19 1/2 lengths behind Blazing Sevens and Bourbon Bash in July. The Pletcher trainee ate dirt in his second start and looked uncomfortable surrounded by horses. He tired from the effort, and although Forte managed to pick up a check for fourth place, he was no threat to Mo Strike. Both Violence and Blame are above-average mud sires, but Forte’s dam was unplaced over a muddy track – her forte was turf. If Forte can’t regroup in the Hopeful, perhaps we’ll see him on turf next time. Toss.  

Forte was a sharp debut winner for Todd Pletcher while closely pressing the pace. In the Sanford, however, the son of Violence raced in mid-pack and lacked any kick when the real running began, passing tired foes for fourth. He went off as the favorite, but it was Mo Strike who came away with the win that day. Exotics.

3. Bourbon Bash (6-1)

Bourbon Bash made the lead in his debut, taking them through a 23-second first quarter and 46.45 half. Then he ran out of oats in the stretch, and Blazing Sevens blew by. But   the Lukas trainee showed a considerable improvement in his next start and was flattered when the third-place finisher, General Jim, returned to win on Sept. 3. Bourbon Bash has an excellent mud pedigree. First-crop sire City of Light’s babies are 2-for-2 in the mud, plus Bourbon Bash’s dam hit the board on a sloppy track. Taking it a step further, Bourbon Bash tuned up with a four-furlong bullet 47.30 in the mud. Contender.

Bourbon Bash was a distant second to Blazing Sevens in his debut at Saratoga but bounced back smartly to win on second asking. Under Flavien Prat, the son of City of Light broke sharply from the rail, seized the lead, and widened his advantage at every call, winning by eight lengths and earning a sparkling 95 Beyer speed figure. Tyler Gaffalione, who was aboard for the colt’s debut, hops on again as Prat opts to ride Gulfport instead. He is definitely the better of the D. Wayne Lukas duo. Contender.

4. Gulfport (9-5)

The Bashford Manor winner was in contention in the Saratoga Special through a 21.94-second first quarter and 45-second half. But he had to check hard at the five-sixteenths pole as Damon’s Mound came over on him. That one tried to mug Super Chow in the stretch but was straightened out. To Gulfport’s credit, he got back into stride and passed a tired Super Chow. I’m amazed that Damon’s Mound wasn’t disqualified. We won’t know if Gulfport will handle the mud until he tries it, but he has a decent mud pedigree. His half-sibling was off the board, but their dam finished in the money over a sloppy track. Win contender.

Gulfport has been favored in all three of his career starts, winning his debut and the Bashford Manor by 19 lengths combined. In the Saratoga Special (G2), Gulfport got caught up in a three-horse duel for the early lead, dropped back a bit and lost momentum when being checked inside tight quarters. Damon’s Mound opened up on the short field, but Gulfport gamely battled back to close the gap and secure second. Without the trouble in the far turn, Gulfport likely would have remained undefeated. With the highest speed figure in the field, Gulfport is definitely a win contender.

5. Mo Strike (5-2)

The Sanford Stakes hero is the morning-line favorite after two good performances. His debut evolved into a key race, with three next-out winners and two in-the-money finishes from 10 starters. The Sanford produced two next-out winners, plus one who was second by a head, and two third-place finishers, all of them in stakes races. Mo Strike has a strong mud pedigree, plus one half-sibling and the dam were both in the money on off tracks. Win contender.

Undefeated Mo Strike took a big step forward when winning the Sanford in his second start. Under Florent Geroux, the son of Uncle Mo contested the pace before poking his head in front in the stretch and then drawing away to win by 3 1/2 lengths. His speed figure jumped from an 80 to a 95. If he takes another step forward, even a small one, he will be dangerous. Win contender.

6. Blazing Sevens (4-1)

Blazing Sevens outclassed them in his debut, but I wonder how strong the field was. His final time for six panels was a pokey 1:13.34, the slowest time in the Hopeful field. Blazing Seven’s sire Good Magic has four starters and two winners over off tracks. But his dam was beaten more than 14 lengths in two starts over the mud. Chad Brown used the jump from last-out maiden winner to Grade 1 in 2020 with Reinvestment Risk and was rewarded with a second-place finish in the Hopeful.

Blazing Sevens is the only colt in the field with only one start, an open-length triumph over Bourbon Bash. He earned an 87 speed figure for that effort, a number that’s a cut below the best in this field. Despite that, Blazing Sevens is not one to sleep on, coming from the Chad Brown barn. With four definite speedsters in this field of six, Blazing Sevens could get the perfect scenario to upset the favorites. Live long shot.