Head to Head: Handicapping the Harlan's Holiday Stakes

ASHLEY

LAURIE

1.  O'Connor

O'Connor is a multiple group winner in Chile, including the Group 1 Gran Premio Latinoamericano. He's been in fine fettle this year, going 5: 3-2-0. He successfully debuted here in the States in October, stalking the early pace before taking control early to win a 1 1/16-mile optional claimer by six lengths. He earned a 98 Brisnet Speed Rating for that effort. Trainer Joseph Saffie Jr. is succeeding with last-race winners at a 24 percent clip, 46-90 days away runners at a 24 percent clip and has been winning with jockey Edgard Zayas at a 23 percent clip. Merits consideration.

O'Connor wins big or goes home. The Group 1 winner won his first start outside his native Chile by a big six lengths at Gulfstream, beating a next-out winner. O'Connor’s recent works at Palm Meadows have been slow maintenance style mixed with a couple of sharp breezes. This mystery horse is a wildcard, but the Saffie Joseph Jr. trainee is the most consistent winner in the field. As Ashley stated, the trainer/jockey stats are pretty good, too. Contender. 

2.  Pioneer of Medina

Pioneer of Medina was a familiar face on this year's Road to the Kentucky Derby, notching a fourth in the Risen Star (G2) and a third in the Louisiana Derby (G2) to earn his way into the field. Until the Kentucky Derby, in which he finished 19th, he had never been worse than fourth in his career. He followed that up with back-to-back eighth-place finishes before finally finding the winner's circle again in an optional claimer at Churchill Downs last month. In his only previous start at Gulfstream, he was third on the all-weather track. Trainer Todd Pletcher is winning at a 24 percent clip with last race winners, a 25 percent clip with shippers, and at a 31% rate with jockey Luis Saez. Because it's Pletcher at Gulfstream, you have to consider this colt. Contender.

His 57-length bashing in the Kentucky Derby knocked Pioneer of Medina off stride in his next two races to the tune of 30 combined lengths. But the Todd Pletcher trainee salvaged the year with a victory against optional claimers in his last start, which was in November. Pioneer of Medina has been breezing steadily since then, including a second-to-last bullet five furlongs at Palm Meadows in company with last year's Pegasus World Cup Turf winner, Colonel Liam. A huge plus is that Luis Saez stays aboard Pioneer of Medina. The jock hopes for his fourth straight Harlan's Holiday victory and his fifth overall since the race's inception in 2011. Despite all this, Pioneer of Medina is a hit-or-miss type and hasn't been close against quality horses. Pass.

3.  Cooke Creek

Cooke Creek began his career strong, winning his debut and following that up with a stakes win. He was then second in the Nashua (G3) and third in the Jerome. It all fell apart after that, though. He has since finished eighth in the Withers (G3), fifth in the Peter Pan (G3), and fifth in the Pegasus at Monmouth, beaten by a combined 47 lengths in those three races. The Pegasus, which was in June, was his last race. Pass.

Off since last June, Cooke Creek hopes to reverse his form to happier times, when he was a sparkling new 2-year-old and placed in the Nashua (G3) and Jerome Stakes. The Jeremiah O'Dwyer trainee's works in December, including a four-furlong gate work in 48 seconds, have been moderate. Although he has back class, Cooke Creek must prove his current class. Pass.

4.  Simplification

Simplification looked primed to be one of the top colts of the year. The son of Not This Time won the Mucho Macho Man and Fountain of Youth (G2), was second in the Holy Bull (G3) and third in the Florida Derby (G1). He took that foundation and translated it into a strong closing run in the Kentucky Derby that saw him get up for fourth. Since then, he finished sixth in the Preakness (G1), third in the West Virginia Derby (G3), fourth in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) and seventh in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile. He earned a career-best 105 Brisnet Speed Rating in the Pennsylvania Derby, and most of his other speed ratings have been in the mid-to upper 90s. This colt loves Gulfstream Park, too, having compiled a 7: 3-1-2 résumé over the track. Win contender.

After finishing an excellent fourth place in the Kentucky Derby and third in the West Virginia Derby, Simplification returns to the scene of his best performances, where he has finished out of the money only once in seven starts. The Antonio Sano trainee posted a series of quick five-furlong works, including a bullet second-to-last solo move. He looked good doing it under his own power without urging. Contender.

5.  South Bend

Second in last year's Harlan's Holiday, South Bend has had less than a stellar 2022. The 5-year-old son of Algorithms has so far gone 8: 0-1-3 this year, though he did earn a year-best 100-Brisnet speed rating last out when finishing third by a neck in an optional claimer at Churchill Downs last month, giving him the highest last-race speed rating in the field. Bill Mott must think South Bend stands a good chance here because he doesn't typically enter his charges willy-nilly. Mott is winning at a 20 percent clip with shippers and at a 29 percent rate with jockey Joel Rosario. Use underneath.

South Bend seeks to reverse last year's form, where he missed the winner's circle in eight attempts. He was second in the 2021 Harlan's Holiday Stakes and has been training forwardly at Payson Park. The training track has been faster than in recent years. The Mott trainee seldom wins but generally can be counted on to complete the exotics. Use underneath.

6.  Strike Hard

Strike Hard was second to Simplification in the Mucho Macho Man to begin 2022 and followed that up with a fourth-place finish in the Sam F. Davis (G3). Since then, the best he has done was win an optional claimer at Gulfstream while running off the board in every stakes races except the Carry Back at Gulfstream. Overall he has a 9: 3-3-1 record at the South Florida track. But he is very outclassed here with mediocre Brisnet Speed Ratings. Pass.

The good news is that Strike Hard has hit the board in seven of nine starts at Gulfstream. The bad news is that he has failed to win beyond a mile in five starts. Pass.

7.  Skippylongstocking

Skippylongstocking hasn't raced since finishing a disappointing ninth in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1). The son of Exaggerator had a very up-and-down 2022. He won the West Virginia Derby (G3) and was third in the Wood Memorial (G2) and Belmont but was sixth in the Mucho Macho Man, behind Simplification and Strike Hard, and fifth in the Preakness. At Gulfstream, Skippylongstocking is 7: 2-1-1. Though he hasn't raced in over three months, this is a sharp class drop that the colt should benefit from. Additionally, Skippylongstocking picks up Irad Ortiz Jr. for this race. Contender.

Skippylongstocking got a much-needed break after his dismal showing in the Pennsylvania Derby. But the Saffie Joseph Jr. trainee is ready to get back into action. His last two breezes, five furlongs in 1:00 and a pre-race four furlongs in 47 seconds, tightened him up.

Skippylongstocking has hit the board in four of seven starts at Gulfstream. Ashley noted that the colt gets a class drop and adds Irad Ortiz Jr. Contender.

8.  Clapton

Clapton has made 15 of 16 career starts at Gulfstream Park, compiling a 15: 4-3-3 record. The son of Brethren earned a career-best 102 Brisnet Speed Rating when winning the Gil Campbell Memorial Handicap three starts back. The Juan Alvarado trainee has had a decent 2022, going 10: 3-2-2 for the year thus far, though he has finished off the board in previous two graded-stakes attempts. He does switch to hot jockey Tyler Gaffalione, but he's in over his head here. Pass.

Clapton has found his way home to the winner's circle only four times in 16 starts. The Juan Alvarado trainee showed a heartful of soul in just missing the victory by a half-length in his last start, and his works are good. Tyler Gaffalione might get Clapton to hold on for a lower exotics spot.