Head to Head: Handicap the Golden Rod Stakes

Ashley

Laurie

1. Pretty Mischievous (5-2)

Pretty Mischievous hails from a very nice immediate female family. She’s out of the Grade 1-winning Tapit mare Pretty City Dancer, who in turn is a half-sister to grade one winner Lear’s Princess. This Into Mischief filly has shown early promise, winning her debut easily on a fast track and annexing her second start on a sealed, sloppy track. Both races came right here at Churchill Downs, and the rail post has been winning at a 20 percent clip. Her Brisnet speed rating did improve from her first start to her second, but she will need to take another step forward to best Hoosier Philly. Contender.

Pretty Mischievous is still learning, but there’s no doubt about her talent. She tracked the early pace on the outside in both starts, went four wide around the turn, and opened up. In her debut, the Brendan Walsh trainee hit the front under a hand ride, noticeably slowed, and put her ears up in the stretch. Next time out, Into Mischief’s daughter had to work for the victory. She was unfocused in the stretch, drifting from the whip, and switched to her left lead late with a late right-handed tap. Pretty Mischief’s debut yielded two next-out winners and three runner-ups. Pretty Mischievous has won both starts on talent, but she’ll have to focus to beat this group. Exotics.

2. Mustang Lady (15-1)

Mustang Lady’s third dam, Maid For Walking, produced Grade 1 winner and a Grade 1-placed runner. Unfortunately, her more immediate family on the dam side has not been as prolific. Mustang Lady herself won at first asking in an off-the-turf race at Ellis Park at odds of 23-1. She tried turf at Kentucky Downs in her second start, the Juvenile Fillies, and finished a distant 5th. She switched back to the dirt for the Alcibiades (G1) in her third start, finishing sixth, beaten 7-lengths. Her Brisnet speed ratings have improved with each start; unfortunately, her placings have not. Pass.

When are improving speed ratings not a big deal? When the runner is outclassed. Mustang Lady closed like a shot to win her Ellis Park debut. However, only one of eight rivals hit the board in their next start. The Troy Newton trainee was beaten by a combined 19 lengths in her next two starts. Pass.

3. American Rockette (10-1)

American Rockette has faced some tough competition in her first three races, including Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies heroine Wonder Wheel and runner-up Leave No Trace. When facing that duo in the Spinaway (G1) and Frizette (G1), American Rockette finished 4th both times, beaten by just 3 1/4-lengths in the Spinaway and by 7 1/4-lengths in the Frizette. However, she did win her debut and gets a jockey switch from Junior Alvarado to Florent Geroux. Use underneath.

American Rockette hopes to earn blacktype status, just like her half-siblings, graded winner Frank’s Rockette, and stakes placed Firewater Rocket and Rocknroll Rocket. American Pharoah’s daughter was unsuccessful in the Spinaway and Frizette, finishing fourth both times. Now, the Mott trainee drops in class and gets a jock switch to Florent Geroux. Mott and Geroux have teamed at Churchill in the last three years to hit the board in four of eight events, twice with Frank’s Rockette. Contender.

4. Hoosier Philly (1-1)

Thomas Amoss’s Hoosier Philly is undefeated in two career starts, with both wins coming at Churchill Downs, just like rival Pretty Mischievous. This Into Mischief filly gets the nod, however, as she won at first asking in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden race. Then she successfully stretched out to romp in the 1 1/16-mile Rags to Riches over T Max on a sloppy, sealed track. Her Brisnet speed figure jumped a solid ten points from 83 to 93, giving her the highest last race speed rating. The big downside here, however, is that Amoss is only winning graded stakes at a seven percent clip. With that stat in mind, Hoosier Philly is eligible to be a false favorite; however, her record does say otherwise. Contender.

Hoosier Philly was the even-money favorite in both starts, but does she deserve the status in the Golden Rod? She won both starts as she pleased, including a 7 1/2 length score in the Rags to Riches over T Max, who was coming off a five-length allowance victory. Ashley mentioned the ten-point speed rating jump, which could be concerning. However, the Tom Amoss trainee’s works are sparkling, hitting bullets before and after the Rags to Riches, showing her effort in the Rags to Riches cost nothing. Contender.

5. Black Forest (20-1)

Speedy Black Forest finally got her picture taken in her fifth outing for trainer Fausto Gutierrez, who is best known for training the popular Letruska to Grade 1 glories. The Frosted filly ran second in her first three starts before running a close fifth in her 4th start. Those first four starts all came at Churchill, so she does like the surface, even if she hasn’t won there. Gutierrez is striking at a 40 percent rate in graded stakes, but that’s all due to Letruska. Black Forest earned a career-best 85 Brisnet speed rating last out but appears to be outclassed here. Pass.

The free-running Black Forest needed five attempts to win, finishing second three times, once to eventual Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Filly’s heroine Wonder Wheel, and once to next-out stakes winner Key of Life. However, she has her work cut out as a confirmed pacesetter. Pass.

6. Knockyoursocksoff (12-1)

Knockyoursocksoff will try dirt for the first time for trainer Chris Block. She won upon debut at Colonial Downs but could only muster a non-threatening 4th in the Juvenile Fillies at Kentucky Downs and 2nd in the Jessamine (G2) at Keeneland. Dam Fateer was a non-winner in three starts, two on dirt and one on all-weather. However, half-brother Bob And Jackie was a graded-stakes winner on the turf, so this is an interesting move for this filly. Pass.

Knockyoursocksoff hopes the switch to dirt will move her forward after a distant second-place finish in the Jessamine (G2). Her half-brother Bob and Jackie won a Grade 2 when it was moved to dirt, and two other half-siblings won or placed on dirt. The long-striding Knockyoursocksoff physically resembles her sire Kitten’s Joy, and the times of her dirt works are respectable. Although her sire’s offspring have a 12 percent win rate on dirt over the last five years, they hit the exotics 41 percent of the time. Exotics.

7. T Max (12-1)

T Max has never finished worse than second in her three career starts. She began with a facile win at Ellis Park and followed that up with another open-length win in an optional claimer at Churchill Downs. Hoosier Philly snapped that streak when winning the Rags to Riches by 7 1/2-lengths over this daughter of Connect. Trainer William Walden is winning at a 26% rate on the dirt, and Walden and jockey Jack Gilligan are succeeding at a 50 percent rate together. While T Max was no match for Hoosier Philly in their last outing, she does like Churchill and could hang on for a piece of the pie. Use underneath.

T Max looked like a good thing heading into the Rags to Riches Stakes, having won both starts by a combined 5 3/4 lengths while on an uncontested lead. Then Connect’s daughter met up with Hoosier Philly, and it was no contest. T Max was passed late in the stretch but re-engaged to grab second place by a head. Trainer Will Walden, son of veteran trainer Elliot Walden, gave T Max a pre-race sharp four-furlong 47.60-second breeze at Turfway. Despite this, T Max is in deeper water here and will likely have pressure on the lead. Her late-pace figures aren’t the best. Pass.

8. Pure Pauline (15-1)

Pure Pauline ran fourth behind Take Charge Briana in her debut, failing as the favorite. However, she bounced back to be part of an incredible dead heat at Keeneland, in which the other filly in the photo was a fellow Stonestreet-bred from the Grand Pauline line. While that win at Keeneland came at the Golden Rod distance, she only earned a 76 Brisnet speed rating, below what she would need to beat this group. Pass.

It's rare to see a Todd Pletcher last-out maiden winner at 15-1 morning line in a 2-year-old stakes. The trainer wins at 18 percent and hits the board 50 percent with this angle. As Ashley stated, Pure Pauline dead-heated with her stablemate Grand Entrance. That one is a three-quarter sister to Pure Pauline’s dam, Grade 2 winner Keen Pauline. It’s interesting that Pletcher entered Pure Pauline here and not Grand Entrance. Despite the 76 speed rating, Pure Pauline earned a respectable 88 late pace figure, which fits with this group. Contender.   

9. Take Charge Briana (15-1)

It took this daughter of Curlin three attempts to find the winner’s circle this summer at Saratoga. Once she got the monkey off her back, it was off to Keeneland for the Alcibiades (G1). She was never involved and finished 10th, beaten by 20 lengths. Taking a class cut to go to the Myrtlewood did not help much, though she came on willingly for fourth, beaten by 8 1/2-lengths. Her best Brisnet speed rating came in her second start when she received an 88 while running third behind Chocolate Gelato. If she ran back to that speed figure, she’d be dangerous, but trainer D. Wayne Lukas is only winning graded stakes at a five percent rate. Pass.

Take Charge Briana runs like she’s screaming for distance, and her late-pace figures in all but two starts are in the 90’s, and in three of five starts, she made up ground in the stretch.

Take Charge Briana’s dam Take Charge Tressa is an unraced full sister to multiple Grade 1 winner Omaha Beach and a half to 2014 champion two year old filly Take Charge Brandi, who was conditioned by Lukas and won as an upset. Take Charge Briana needs a swift early pace to set her up. I’ve said it before – Lukas is sneaky. He may have only a five percent win rate in graded stakes, but he owns the record for the most wins in the Golden Rod. Take Charge Briana is worth a longshot look if you want to play with it.

10. Defining Purpose (15-1)

Defining Purpose debuted in the aforementioned Keeneland race, where Pure Pauline and Grand Entrance finished in a dead heat for the win; she was fifth that day. She returned to win her second start, also carded at 1 1/16-mile, by 6 lengths, flattering Pure Pauline in doing so. She earned a 78 Brisnet speed figure for that effort. Trainer Kenny McPeek and jockey Brian Hernandez, Jr. are winning together at a 19 percent clip. With another start at 1 1/16-mile at Churchill Downs, I rather like this filly. Use underneath.

Defining Purpose switched to front-running tactics to score in her second start by six lengths just nine days ago. Cross Traffic’s daughter totally outclassed a field that had failed to find the winner’s circle in three or more starts. Although McPeek and Hernandez Jr. are on a win streak, this may be too soon for a filly making her third start. Pass.