Head to Head: Handicapping the Fountain of Youth Stakes

Ashley

Laurie

He Takes Charge — He has steadily improved with each start. He began his career on the lawn, but switching to the dirt has been key. He likes Gulfstream and finally broke his maiden in his last outing. Continued improvement puts this one squarely in contention.

He Takes Charge – He needed time to find the winner’s circle, but with a fast track and two turns, had his picture taken last time out. It was his best race to date, and he can move forward. His sole breeze was a sharp four furlongs, which was the second-best work of the day. There’s plenty of class in the pretty gray colt’s distaff line. His dam is a half sister to Florida Derby hero Take Charge Indy, 3-year-old champ Will Take Charge, and a half sister bore 2-year-old filly champ Take Charge Brandi. Lots of positives, but unless the race falls apart, he’ll need to move faster. Exotics.

Free Drop Billy — He was the best of the rest in last month’s Holy Bull (G2). It was a nice rebound effort from his poor Breeders’ Cup Juvenile performance, but hey: Guess what? Juvenile winner Good Magic is back, and Free Drop Billy will have to once again go through him to get to the winner’s circle. Experience over the Gulfstream track helps, however.

Free Drop Billy – His Brisnet Speed Rating was the highest of his career in the Holy Bull, and he should take a step forward here. The flashy chestnut son of Union Rags, out of a Giant’s Causeway mare,   should just get better as the year progresses. Ashley thinks Billy must get past Good Magic. I think it’s vice versa, because Billy has the advantage of a recent race over the track. Obvious win contender.

Peppered — Boy does this one know how to find trouble in a race! Four starts in his career and something has gone wrong in each of those races. He’s also been off since late November. So, no thank you.

Peppered – He's making his seasonal debut in a tough spot. The son of Tapizar showed promise at Woodbine but had a troubled trip in the Kentucky Jockey Club last year. Peppered has been breezing strongly at Palm Meadows. His second-to-last bullet breeze of five furlongs in 1:00.30 was done easily under his own power, and he galloped out well. His last work in 1:02 was concerning. Peppered was lathered like a shampoo commercial and while not being urged, didn’t seem to be moving as easily as previously.  Trainer Reade Baker wasn’t concerned about his charge’s breeze. Pass. 

Strike Power — He'll make his two-turn debut here. He has been impressive in both career starts, using his innate speed to play “catch me if you can.” So far no one has been able to, but this will be a big test for the Speightstown colt.

Strike Power – He gets the opportunity to stretch his speed in the Fountain of Youth. The powerful colt wired the Swale field without being challenged. By Speightstown, out of a multiple stakes-winning turf router, Strike Power should find 1 1/16 miles well within his scope. As Ashley noted, Strike Power has been fast out of the gate and is untested. He may do the same thing here. However, Mark Henning tipped his hand with Strike Power’s last breeze. The colt sat behind an older allowance winner, took aim down the stretch, and had his head in front at the wire. Powerful win contender.

Storm Runner — Remember Mississippi? The colt that scratched from the Holy Bull (G2) and ran second in an allowance spot the next day…Well, Storm Runner is the colt that beat him. Trainer Dale Romans tried him on the turf a couple times, but the Get Stormy colt really took to Gulfstream’s main track. Could be any kind.

Storm Runner – He out-gamed Mississippi in his last race. Despite having six starts to his name, the flashy Chestnut son of Get Stormy was very green in his last two starts. One of the trio entered by Dale Romans, Storm Runner hit a career-best Bris speed figure of 102, a 19-point jump from his previous five starts, so he’ll either seriously regress, or he’s getting very good very fast. Talented, but unpredictable. Exotic play.

Good Magic — Your heavy favorite as the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Eclipse Award champion has been off since then, and fitness could be key, especially since this is not the ultimate goal but rather the Kentucky Derby. Class could prevail.

Good Magic – The champ makes his seasonal debut against an improving field. I doubt he’s cranked for the victory, and by Curlin out of a Hard Spun mare, he’ll improve with maturity and distance. In his last breeze, Good Magic had an easy leg stretcher and looked a lot like his sire: big and powerful. In 2012, Union Rags won the Fountain of Youth off the layoff after his narrow miss in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Probable favorite.

Gotta Go — As with Strike Power, Gotta Go exits the Swale. He was beaten 2 3/4 lengths that day and will make his second attempt at two turns. He was bothered in both turns of the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), so I can forgive that effort. The Swale has him sharp, but questions remain.

Gotta Go – He showed talent as a juvenile and was best of the rest behind the speedy Strike Power in the Swale. The distinctively marked son of Shanghai Bobby got his final furlong in 12.91 in the Swale, and it was the only sub-13 number in the field. Gotta Go had a deceptively nice second-to-last breeze and moved smoothly, with flickering ears. He isn’t as muscular as Free Drop Billy and Power Strike, but keep an eye on him. Ian Wilkes has a nice colt who should be moving strongly at the end. Good enough to win?  Could be a sneaky longshot play. 

Marconi — I am admittedly biased toward the half-brother to personal favorite Mucho Macho Man, but the fact that Todd Pletcher moved him from Aqueduct to Gulfstream has me thinking that maybe this colt is progressing better than originally thought. Mucho Macho Man was a graded stakes winner at Gulfstream, and Marconi reminds me a good bit of his big brother. He may not win, but he’s an exotic play for sure.

Marconi – He's flashed potential but hasn’t generated the same charge on the track as he did in the sales ring. Marconi is a half-brother to Breeders' Cup Classic hero Mucho Macho Man, and Marconi’s full sister Southern Girl is a stakes winning sprinter. Pletcher’s $2 million baby was hindered by the pace-favoring track in the Withers, but the colt’s Trakus figures were comparable to Avery Island’s. Marconi cuts back in distance, and if he can get a good trip under Javier Castellano, Marconi could be charging at the end. 

Machismo — New trainer Anthony Quartarolo seems to have brought out the best in Machismo. Was his last race a fluke? Time will tell.

Machismo – He has the pedigree to improve with maturity. He lorded over a herd of maidens with an 11-length score in his latest race. The son of More Than Ready should love the extra distance, and speed figures indicate he should move forward. Machismo zipped a sharp 5/8 in 58.45 as a pre-race breeze. Quartarolo is 0-for-18 with horses stretching out the first time. That and the very fast work has me looking elsewhere. Exotics.

Promises Fulfilled — He has been off since a solid third-place effort in the Kentucky Jockey Club back in November. Prior to that, the Shackleford colt had reeled off two straight to begin his career. He has shown a pretty solid work pattern leading into this, but as a front-running type, he is at a severe disadvantage due to drawing the far outside post at this particular distance.

Promises Fulfilled – He has a tough task in the FOY, and I’m not convinced he’s up to it. Unless Irad Ortiz, Jr. takes Promises Fulfilled off the lead and out of his normal pace setting running style, they’ll have to gun early to get a good position and will be hung wide for the first portion of the race. Add in a distance challenged pedigree, a first start of the year, and the only promise that will be fulfilled is that he’ll be backing up in the stretch. Pass.   

Ashley 

Laurie

#4 Strike Power (4-1)

#8 Marconi (8-1)

#6 Good Magic (7-5)

#1 He Takes Charge (20-1)

#2 Free Drop Billy (9-2)

#4 Strike Power (4-1)

#6 Good Magic (7-5)

#7 Gotta Go (10-1)