Head to Head: Handicapping the Del Mar Futurity

ASHLEY

LAURIE

1. Classical Cat 8-1

Classical Cat debuted a winner for trainer Philip D’Amato at the beginning of August. By Mendelssohn, the colt pressed the pace in third, took over in the stretch, and won by 2 1/2 lengths. He received a 90 Brisnet speed figure and has been training forwardly.

Classical Cat looked good winning his debut. He broke like a shot but was content to track the pace three wide on the outside. He was a little up-and-down in the stretch, not having a nearby rival, but picked it up when he heard the runner-up behind him, then galloped out in front. Mendelssohn’s son is out of a stakes-winning turf miler, and his second dam is a half-sister to Curlin. In his final breeze, Classical Cat went five furlongs in 1:00.4 in company with two juvenile stablemates. He started several lengths behind, then rolled wide through the stretch, passing them all without getting out of first gear while they were being pushed. Next, he saw another horse galloping out in front, so he picked up the pace and passed that one too. D’Amato gets 27 percent winners with juveniles in their second dirt sprint over the last three years. Contender.

2. Agency 12-1

Agency was a first-out winner despite stumbling and getting crowded. He followed that up by putting in a good effort in the Best Pal (G3). He followed Havnameltdown around the track, but, despite not having an answer for that one, this son of Bolt d’Oro was clearly the best of the rest. Contender.

As Ashley noted, Agency put forth a strong effort in the Best Pal Stakes. However, he couldn’t catch Havnameltdown, who kept rolling on the lead. However, the Mark Glatt trainee bounced back with a post-race five-furlong work of 59.60 seconds, which was faster than his previous works. Pratt takes the reins from Mike Smith, who will ride Havnameltdown. Worth an exotics look.

3. Mixto 20-1

Mixto is quickly wheeling back off an unsuccessful debut on September 3. This son of Good Magic was off a step slow from his rail post, trailed the field, but came on with interest in the stretch to get up for fourth at long odds. He could progress in the future, but I do not like him in this spot. Pass.

Mixto had zero early speed in his debut while chasing an opening quarter in 21.89 seconds and a half in 44.37 seconds. Rispoli swung him eight wide around the turn, and Mixto motored along for fourth place, galloping out just behind the winner. Mixto’s dam is a full sister to Grade 1 winner Rigoletta, dam of Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile hero Battle of Midway. Her half-sister bore Cigar Mile winner Patternrecognition, so there’s class in the family. However, I don’t like seeing him wheel back in eight days against winners. Pass.

4. Skinner 8-1

Skinner debuted in the same maiden race that Best Pal (G2) winner Havnameltdown triumphed in. With Abel Cedillo aboard, this nicely-bred colt raced at the rear of the field and made progress in the stretch to finish a non-threatening fifth. Dam Winding Way didn’t debut until June of her 3-year-old season and had some success at the graded level. Another to watch for down the line, but a pass here.

In his debut, Skinner had to steady slightly to last place after the break. After that, however, he made a sustained drive, a six-wide move around the turn, and passed tired horses. The John  Shirreffs trainee posted a final five-furlong work of 59.40 seconds, and perhaps with a better trip from Victor Espinoza, he’ll get an exotics placing, but I’ll take a pass.

5. Pop d’Oro 50-1

Pop d’Oro won on debut, going 4 1/2 furlongs at Turf Paradise, but the switch to the big California tracks did him no favors. He was 4th behind the filly Absolutely Zero in the Fasig-Tipton Futurity and a distant fourth in the Best Pal (G3). Trainer Hector Palma adds blinkers for the first time, an angle that has only produced winners at an 11 percent clip for him. Toss.

Pop d’Oro had trouble in his last two starts and made wide moves to place fourth both times. Blinkers and the third jock switch to Abel Cedillo may help. However, Pop d’Oro seems up against it. Pass.

6. Newgate 4-1

The first of the Bob Baffert trio, Newgate won his debut as the odds-on favorite while earning an 89 Brisnet speed figure. His last four works were a bullet five-furlong move followed by three consecutive, solid six-furlong works. With John Velazquez up again, Newgate looks ready to roll. Contender.

Newgate beat a full field of maidens by 3 1/2 lengths under a hand ride. Three of his five rivals hit the board in their next outing, but none won. So whatever Newgate beat, he did it impressively. Into Mischief’s son worked six panels in 1:11.80 in company with the 3-year-old filly Censorship, who placed twice in four starts. The pair moved as a team, but as both drove through the gallop out, Newgate was pushed and encouraged with a few taps to stay with the filly. Baffert has an eye-catching 37 percent win rate and 76 percent in-the-money with juveniles in their second dirt sprint over the last three years. Contender.

7. Cave Rock 6-5

Also from the Baffert barn, Cave Rock seized the immediate lead in his career bow and cruised to a six-length victory under Juan Hernandez. By Arrogate and out of Grade 3 winner Georgie’s Angel, Cave Rock was awarded a sparkling 104 Brisnet speed figure, making him the one to beat here. Contender.

Cave Rock grabbed the lead and never looked back, rolling to a six-length score. Three rivals from the race returned, and two hit the board in their next start. Arrogate’s son breezed on the outside of Havnameltdown in their final five-furlong move in 1:00.2. Cave Rock was asked to sit off his mate by a long neck. He drew even down the lane but was uneven down the lane, turning his head slightly while drifting out and back in. Both were pushed and urged through the wire, with Cave Rock finishing slightly ahead. Contender.

8. Havnameltdown 4-1

The last of the Baffert trio, Havnameltdown is undefeated in two career starts, including a front-running score in the Best Pal (G3). It’s odd that the only graded stakes winner in the field isn’t the morning line favorite, but such is the brilliance of Cave Rock, who hails from the exact same connections as Havnameltdown. Moreover, the 102 Brisnet speed figure that this son of Uncaptured earned in his Best Pal triumph is the second highest in the field, making him a serious contender at a potentially good price.

In the Best Pal Stakes, Havnameltdown was in contention during swift early fractions of 21.74 and 44.87 seconds. He traveled five furlongs in 57.35 seconds and finished up in 1:10.22 for six furlongs. The Baffert trainee had a 14-point speed-figure jump on the Brisnet scale between his maiden and Best Pal score, so I’m wary of a regression. The Baffert/Smith duo teamed to win last year’s Futurity with Pinehurst. Contender. 

9. The Big Wam 10-1

By Mr. Big, The Big Wam is the most experienced runner in the field with four career starts. He has put together a 4: 2-2-0 record, but both of his wins came in California-bred company. This will be a big jump up in class for the Luis Mendez trainee, one I don’t think he’s ready for. Pass.

The Big Wam placed second against open company in two races early in the season, and both winners returned to win or place in stakes. Then, after a few months off, The Big Wam broke through with a maiden win at Del Mar, then captured the Graduation Stakes despite trouble. After steadying twice after the start, he made a wide, sustained drive around the turn, bumped with a rival, then steadily wore down the pacesetter. Unfortunately, JJ Hernandez jumps off, and Hector Berrios picks up the mount. The jock has three wins from 35 mounts in dirt sprints this meet yet has hit the board 37 percent of the time. Exotics.