Head to Head: Handicapping the Cigar Mile

Ashley

Laurie

1. Double Crown (15-1)

Double Crown upset the Kelso (G2) at huge odds, notching his first victory at Aqueduct. The gelded son of Bourbon Courage does like the mile distance, having compiled a 3: 1-2-0 record traveling a mile. But the field he faced in the Kelso was not all that and a bag of chips, and he’ll face better here. He made me eat crow last time, but I doubt I’ll be eating a second slice of humble pie here. Pass.

Double Crown was a shocker in the Kelso at 42-1. I can only figure that Castellano on Baby Yoda was complacent, thinking he was home free. Looking at the past performances now, I still wouldn’t have picked Double Crown to win the Kelso, and I’m not picking him here. Pass.

2. Zandon (1-1)

Zandon has been a cash machine for trainer Chad Brown and owner Jeff Drown. In eight lifetime starts, this son of Upstart has never been out of the trifecta and won the Blue Grass (G1). In his last five starts, he has earned triple-digit Brisnet speed ratings. In his only previous start at Aqueduct, he lost the Remsen (G2) to Mo Donegal, the eventual Belmont (G1) winner, by a nose. Trainer Chad Brown and jockey Joel Rosario have been winning at 33 percent clip lately, and Zandon’s 110 Brisnet Speed Rating for his runner-up finish in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) is one of the best in the field. Contender.

I’ve always liked Zandon. He has stood in the winner’s circle only twice, but he’s all heart against the top tier and it’s hard to close against quality contenders like Epicenter and Taiba. The dark brown son of Upstart meets a much softer group here, and Chad Brown seeks his third Cigar trophy in a decade. So it’s a no-brainer that Zandon is the even-money favorite. Contender.

3. White Abarrio (9-2)

White Abarrio reminds me of Rich Strike in that he has a preferred track. The son of Race Day is undefeated at Gulfstream Park but has yet to win a race elsewhere. With that being said, he's not a complete toss, as he has run decent races at Churchill Downs and Timonium. His best Brisnet speed rating came in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) when he ran fifth, beaten by eight lengths, and earned a 104. Additionally, he won his only other race at a mile. Exotics.

As Ashley noted, White Abarrio is happiest at Gulfstream Park. He’s cutting back to a mile after bad beats at longer distances, and a switch to Irad Ortiz Jr. could help, but that 104 lifetime best Brisnet speed rating and poor late-pace numbers are a pass for me.

4. Get Her Number (4-1)

Last year, Get Her Number never hit the board in four starts. This year, he has gone 7: 3-1-1, certainly better than last year. But while he has placed in graded stakes, he has not yet won one. He is inconsistent on all surfaces and has not shown that he belongs with this competitive of a group. Pass.

I’m drawing a line through the Pat O'Brien Stakes (G2), when it just wasn’t Get Her Number’s day. Otherwise, he has two wins and a runner-up finish since switching to Peter Miller’s barn, and that second-place finish was against multiple Grade 1 winner American Theorem. Over the last five years, Miller has hit the board with 47 percent of his shippers. Exotics.

 5. O Besos

O Besos is based at Churchill Downs and because of the outbreak of equine herpesvirus, he’s not allowed to ship to New York.

Scratched.

6. Outlier (30-1)

Outlier – the perfect name for this gelded 4-year-old son of Not This Time. The veritable veteran of the group, Outlier has raced an astounding 40 (yes, you read that right) times. This year alone, he has put together a 19: 3-3-2 record. Although he has never tried stakes company, let alone graded-stakes company, he has been in good form recently, running second in his last three races, beaten by a nose, a half-length and a head. His Brisnet Speed Ratings have been nothing special, more fitting of the allowance company he’s been running in. But in his only other race at Aqueduct, he ran second and is fairly reliable at the mile distance (12: 4-1-1). Although I commend trainer/owner Norman Cash for shooting his shot, Outlier does not belong with this group. Pass.

I don’t have much to add to Ashley’s excellent analysis. Outlier will need to pick it up to run with this group. He was bested by 3 1/4 lengths by Double Crown in August. Pass.

7. Mind Control (5-2)

This will be the 6-year-old Mind Control’s swan song, a refreshing breeze in an era where most top runners retire at the end of their 3-year-old season. The son of Stay Thirsty has been in great form this year, going 5: 2-0-2, though one of those wins came via disqualification in the Parx Dirt Mile. He earned an 111 Brisnet speed rating for that effort, the fastest in the field. He also earned a 107 when winning the Salvator Mile. Additionally, Mind Control is an Aqueduct specialist, having compiled a 7: 4-2-1 record at the New York track. He also relishes the mile distance, with a 5: 4-1-0 record for eight panels. Trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey John Velazquez are succeeding at a 25 percent rate. Contender.

Mind Control has never been off the board in seven starts at Aqueduct, and he’s won four of those starts. Unfortunately, the 6-year-old multiple Grade 1 winner has lost a step lately, finishing behind horses that he would have beaten handily a few years ago. The Pletcher trainee ran huge in the Parx Dirt Mile, and although he earned the victory through disqualification, he fought every step of the way. Note that he does his best work on the lead and never backs down from a fight. Pletcher has won the Cigar Mile a record five times, including last year. Contender.