Head to Head: Handicapping the Champagne Stakes

ASHLEY

LAURIE

1. Andiamo a Firenze (6-1)

Andiamo a Firenze debuted in the slop at Belmont (actually Belmont and not this Belmont at Aqueduct nonsense) and romped to a 4-length victory, earning a 93-speed figure. He again won on an off-track last out, taking the Funny Cide by 5 1/2 lengths. Sandwiched between those two starts was a third-place finish in the Sanford (G3) on a fast track. I am concerned about the declining speed figures, but thanks to (now) Tropical Storm Ian, rain is in the forecast for Queens, New York, likely giving this son of Speightstown the surface he clearly loves. Irad Ortiz, Jr. was aboard for the colt’s first three wins but has opted to ride Top Recruit for the first time instead. Win Contender.

Andiamo a Firenze is trying to follow in the hoofprints of his multiple graded stakes winning half-brother Firenze Fire, who captured the 2017 editions of the Sanford and Champagne Stakes. This Kelly Breen trainee is undefeated against New York statebreds on muddy tracks. Andiamo a Firenze ran a good race in the Sanford; he had a pace-pressing wide trip and beat eventual Hopeful (G1) winner Forte and Curly Jack, hero of the Iroquois (G3). Andiamo a Firenze breezed a sharp five-furlongs in 59.20 seconds after his Funny Cide S. victory, indicating the colt bounced out of the race happy and healthy. Jose Lezcano climbs aboard and has a 29 percent win rate in routes this meet. Certainly not a downgrade. As Ashley noted, Speightstown’s son loves to play in puddles, and he'll get the chance in the Champagne. Contender.

2. Top Recruit (5-1)

Top Recruit debuted a winner at Churchill Downs back in June. He then finished an up-the-track third in the Prairie Gold Juvenile Stakes at Prairie Meadows as the odds-on favorite. He did rebound to win the Ellis Park Juvenile Stakes last out, though. Runner-up Curly Jack just won the Iroquois (G3) flattering Top Recruit’s win at Ellis Park. The son of Midshipman has had a different jockey in every start, a trend that continues here in his fourth start. Contender.

A very game Top Recruit fought through quick early fractions in the Ellis Park Juvenile. After putting his rivals away, Top Recruit was challenged by Curly Jack, and the pair battled to the wire. Top Recruit absolutely refused to let Curly Jack get his head in front, and Top Recruit won the photo in the seven-furlong event. Midshipman’s son is out of Oh So Bella, a stakes-placed full sister to Breeders' Cup Marathon (G2) hero Afleet Again. Oh So Bella won her only start over a muddy track by 10 1/4 lengths. The pretty gray colt gets the services of Irad Ortiz, Jr. who is winning routes at 27 percent this meet. Contender.

3. Verifying (9-5)

A son of Triple Crown winner Justify, Verifying won on debut at Saratoga, receiving a 97 Brisnet speed rating. He took the field gate-to-wire and only began to draw away from the runner-up in deep stretch. Trainer Brad Cox and jockey Joel Rosario are winning together at a 46 percent clip, and Cox is winning at a 26 percent clip for runners trying a route for the first time. Contender.

Verifying has what it takes to win the Champagne. Classy pedigree? He’s by the hot young Triple Crown hero Justify and is a half-brother to Champion mare Midnight Bisou. Surface? Four of his half-siblings ran over off tracks, and all hit the board. Speed ratings? He owns the highest Brisnet late-pace rating of 100 and got his final furlong of the six-furlong maiden event in 12.41 seconds. Winning trainer and jockey? Check out Ashley’s stats. The only knock against Verifying is the class of his rivals. The second and third-place finishers were beaten a combined 9 1/2 lengths in their next starts. Contender.

4. Champions Dream (5-1)

Another son of Justify, another debut winner. Like Verifying, Champions Dream took his field gate to wire at Saratoga. In the early stretch, the colt had a 4 1/2-length advantage but won by a diminishing margin while still clear of the runner-up. He received just an 84 Brisnet speed figure for the effort. While trainer Danny Gargan has not had much recent success in graded stakes events, he is winning at a 31 percent clip with first-time route runners. I want to like this colt, but ultimately I have to pass.

While it’s true that Champions Dream’s lead was cut in the stretch in his debut, he was under a hand ride the entire way under Luis Saez. Mo’s Treasure, his only rival to return to the races, won his next start. Champions Dream is out of Dancinginherdreams, a Grade 2-winning daughter of Tapit, and there’s class in his extended family. Gargan gave Champions Dream two pre-race bullet works, and the trainer’s juveniles win their second start at a 25 percent clip. Contender.

5. Blazing Sevens (8-1)

Blazing Sevens romped to a 6 1/4-length victory upon debut for trainer Chad Brown at Saratoga. He followed that up with a third-place finish, twelve lengths behind the winner, in the Hopeful (G1). That race was contested on a sealed, sloppy track, so it could be that he really did not like the track. He did improve from his running position of sixth, however. With a sloppy track likely for this weekend, I would suggest using underneath only.

In his debut, Blazing Sevens beat next-out winner Bourbon Bash, who followed up with a disappointing 24 1/-length defeat in the Hopeful. In the same race, Blazing Sevens was bested a dozen lengths by the winner and nine lengths by Forte. Good Magic’s son is out of a Trophy Girl half-sister to Grade 1 turf horse King David, and another half sibling is a stakes-placed turf miler. Trophy Girl ultimately found her home on the lawn but was out of the money a combined 28 lengths in both starts over off tracks. Additionally, his speed ratings and final furlong times in both starts are less than blazing. Pass.

6. Gulfport (2-1)

Gulfport has been favored in all four career starts. He won his debut and the Bashford Manor by open lengths but finished second in both the Saratoga Special (G2) and the Hopeful (G1), his two most recent races. The 98 Brisnet speed figure he earned in the Bashford Manor is the highest in the field. Despite finishing second in his last two starts, Gulfport is the one to beat here. Win contender.

Gulfport had excuses for his last two starts. He had to check hard in tight quarters in the Saratoga Special, and he blew the final turn in the Hopeful, going seven wide while Forte took advantage inside of him. So now Gulfport gets his fourth rider in as many starts, with the switch to Jose Ortiz. Uncle Mo’s son is out of a full sister to Whitney Invitational (G1) hero and sire Cross Traffic. We know he likes the slop, but Gulfport is still green. Contender.