Head to Head: Handicapping the Breeders' Cup Distaff

ASHLEY

LAURIE

1. Malathaat (3-1)

Regally bred Malathaat has a very important stat in her favor: The 4-year-old filly is undefeated in all three starts at Keeneland. She has never been off the board when racing at 1 1/8 miles. In her last four starts, she has posted triple-digit Brisnet speed ratings and has also done so in eight of her last nine races. This year, however, it has seemed that Clairiere had her number, beating her in two of their three meetings in 2022. After losing two straight to the aforementioned rival, Malathaat rebounded with two straight wins, including the Spinster (G1) here at Keeneland, to earn second billing in the championships. Together, trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey John Velazquez have been winning at a 25 percent clip. One to beat.

Malathaat had Clairiere’s number last year and bested her rival four times. This year, Malathaat lost the head bob to Clairiere in the Ogden Phipps (G1). After adding blinkers, she finished 1 1/2 lengths behind her nemesis in the Shuvee (G2) after taking the overland route. But the blinkers helped the Todd Pletcher trainee stay closer to the pace, and she later improved with two straight victories, besting Clairiere by 9 1/2 lengths in the Personal Ensign (G1) and running away in the Spinster by 5 1/4 lengths. Malathaat has won four of seven starts at nine furlongs and was in the money the additional three times. She loves Keeneland and is undefeated in three starts here. The only drawback is the rail position; the only filly out of the 1 post to hit the board in 11 years was the sensational Songbird when she lost by a desperate head to Beholder in 2016. Contender.

2. Blue Stripe (20-1)

Hailing from Argentina, Blue Stripe has made a rather successful transition to the U.S. if you discount last year’s seventh-place finish in the B.C. Distaff. Since then, she’s won the Santa Margarita (G2) and Clement L. Hirsch (G1) while finishing a close second in the Santa Maria (G2). She hasn’t faced the best of this division while racing in California, and her speed ratings, including a 102 in the Clement L. Hirsch, are a cut below the best in this field. Pass.

In her U.S. debut, Blue Stripe was a nondescript seventh in last year’s Distaff. Her races have been carefully spaced this year, resulting in two wins and a close second place in a trio of California’s graded stakes. Unfortunately, the company was soft, and the only notable filly Blue Stripe beat was an off-form Shedaresthedevil who shipped in for the Clement L. Hirsch (G1). Although her Brisnet speed ratings are decent in any other field, she’s meeting a much tougher crowd and will have to prove she belongs. Pass.

3. Secret Oath (15-1)

If you had told me in May that Secret Oath was going to be a long shot in the Distaff, I would have laughed you out of the room. Unfortunately, winning the Kentucky Oaks was the highlight of the filly’s year. She hasn’t won since, and while she hasn’t thrown a complete clunker (except perhaps finishing second, beaten by 12-lengths in the CCA Oaks, G1), she also hasn’t shown the same spark that we saw in the first half of the year. In her last three races, she’s been soundly beaten by Nest and Society. She has never been off the board at 1 1/8 miles, but it’s hard to see her in the top three against this field. As much as I love her, I think Secret Oath completes the superfecta, at best. Use in the bottom of exotics.

3-year-old Secret Oath hasn’t visited the winner’s circle since wearing the Kentucky Oaks lilies. Despite hitting the board in a trio of Grade 1 stakes against other 3-year-olds, The Lukas trainee faces a deeper field, including older horses. She’s only been off the board twice and is worth long-shot consideration for lower exotics.

4. Clairiere (4-1)

Clairiere has had a banner year in 2022, earning half of her lifetime wins in this season alone. In doing so, she beat Malathaat, Search Results, Letruska, etc. She could have gone this entire year without finishing worse than second, but unfortunately, she was very fractious in the gate in the Personal Ensign (G1). She ended up running fifth, behind both Malathaat and Search Results – but in fairness, she had cut her tongue in the gate during her antics. I would like to think that she rebounds in a big way here, but she isn’t particularly strong when racing at 1 1/8 miles, compiling just a 5: 1-0-1 record at the distance. Contender.

Clairiere returns for another shot at the Distaff. Last year, she closed for fourth place after a wide trip. This year, Curlin’s daughter is bigger, stronger and faster. Or she was until she threw a hissy fit in the Personal Ensign gate, bashed her head and bit her tongue. Who wants to go to work after that? Not Clairiere, who checked in last. So, was Clairiere acting out a sign that she wants a vacation, or was it an off day? I’ll go with the latter. Her record at nine furlongs is of more concern, with only one win in five attempts. Can’t toss her, though; she’s too good. Contender.   

5. Awake At Midnyte (30-1)

There always has to be a “why” entrant in these big events and Awake At Midnyte is it. The 3-year-old daughter of Nyquist has only a maiden and an optional claimer win to her name. She has managed to hit the board a few times in graded stakes, but the two times in which she faced a quality opponent, Nest in the Ashland (G1) and Matareya and Wicked Halo in the Eight Belles (G2), she was well-beaten and off the board. Her speed ratings are well below the top competitors’ figures, and trainer Doug O’Neill has only won 6 percent of 230 graded starts this year. It is also worth noting that O’Neill’s first choice for this filly was the Filly & Mare Sprint, which ended up being oversubscribed. Pass.

Awake At Midnyte is the “why?” horse. Perhaps O’Neil got a better discount for shipping multiple horses. Awake At Midnyte struggles against lesser foes, and her speed ratings are the lowest in the field. Perhaps she’ll put pressure on Society. Gets my vote for most likely to fold first. Pass.

6. Nest (9-5)

Nest has been dominant this year, with her only losses coming against Secret Oath in the Kentucky Oaks and Mo Donegal in the Belmont Stakes. She won her other five 2022 starts by a combined 40 1/4-lengths. Her last start, the Beldame (G2), was her first attempt against her elders, and she passed that test with flying colors, winning by 9 3/4-lengths. Her last five starts have all earned triple-digit Brisnet speed ratings, including a career-best 108 while running second against the colts in the Belmont. She also won her prior start here at Keeneland, the Ashland (G1), by 8 1/4 lengths. Trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. are striking at a 31 percent win rate. The one to beat.

Nest is at the top of the 3-year-old filly division. Her only losses this year were over a wet-fast track in the Kentucky Oaks and a runner-up performance in the Belmont Stakes. Plus, she has a 4: 3-1-0 record at nine furlongs. So has she been beating up on lesser fillies, or is she really that good? Guess we’ll find out. Contender.

7. Search Results (9-2)

Like Clairiere, Search Results has had a very good 2022, going 5: 2-1-2 while facing top-notch competition. It’s worth noting that this filly’s two wins in 2022 came in races devoid of the likes of Clairiere and Malathaat, who beat her in the Ogden Phipps (G1) and Personal Ensign (G1). The distance is not an issue as she has gone 3: 1-2-0 in previous starts at 1 1/8 miles, but she never has beaten Malathaat. She’s a filly I would love to have in my barn, but I only see her running third at best here. Use underneath.

Search Results is a very nice filly and ran the best race of her life in the Personal Ensign, missing by a half-length to Malathaat. But Search Results will have to contend with speed to either side of her and must put forth another stellar performance to win this. Exotics.

8. Society (6-1)

Society announced her presence at the top of the sophomore filly division in a big way in September, romping to a 5 3/4-length victory in the Cotillion (G1). In doing so, she easily defeated Kentucky Oaks winner Secret Oath and was given a 109 Brisnet speed rating. Two starts prior to that, however, she finished a distant fourth, behind Nest and Secret Oath, in the CCA Oaks (G1). She had excuses, though, as she stumbled at the start and got involved in a game of bumper cars. That is her only career defeat in six starts. That loss was also her only attempt at 1 1/8 miles. She did win her only other start at Keeneland, which was her debut. The 109 Brisnet speed rating she earned last out is the best number in the field. Contender.

The lone pacesetter, Society has won all but once, when she stumbled at the start of the CCA Oaks (G1). Gun Runner’s daughter earned the first Grade 1 on her resume with a runaway victory in the Cotillion. Her pedigree says nine furlongs should be no problem, and her speed ratings are improving. However, this 3-year-old is facing the deepest field of her career. Contender.