Head to Head: Pair of 12-1 shots are choices in Belmont Oaks

Ashley

Laurie

1. Con Lima

Con Lima has been the picture of consistency for trainer Todd Pletcher, finishing worse than second just once. Her fourth-place finish came on the dirt in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2) behind the sensational Crazy Beautiful. She brings a two-race win streak to the table with wins over fellow entrants Plum Ali and Spanish Loveaffair (via disqualification) this year as well. The big drawback is that she has never raced 1 1/4 miles before. Sire Commissioner lends a stamina influence, however.

Con Lima got the jump on Plum Ali in the Wonder Again Stakes (G3) and outlasted her fast-closing rival to the wire. Con Lima has a middle-distance pedigree but might handle 10 furlongs in the right setup. If she gets a similar trip to the Wonder Again, she’ll be tough to beat.

2. Cirona (GB)

Christophe Ferland-trained Cirona has run well in France, picking up a Group 3 victory and falling just a head short in the Prix Saint-Alary (G1) at the Belmont Oaks distance of 1 1/4-mile. The downside here is that this filly has run nearly exclusively on turf labeled “soft,” with the best surface she has faced having been “good.” She might not take to firm turf here in the U.S.

Cirona didn’t handle the soft going in the French Oaks at Chantilly. She raced in traffic the entire way and switched leads multiple times. She looked much happier setting the Prix Saint-Alary (G1) pace and was an unlucky second in the head-bob for the victory. If there’s give in the Belmont turf, she’ll be right at home.

3. Higher Truth (Ire)

As usual, Chad Brown enters the fray locked and loaded. Although Higher Truth (IRE) has only three career starts, she is undefeated at Belmont and at the 1 1/4-mile distance. Those wins were in a maiden special weight and an allowance race, so she will be taking a major step up in class in the Belmont Oaks. She looks poised to make it three in a row, however, and should certainly be one of the top plays.

I agree that Higher Truth is one to consider for bets, especially if we get anything close to her 12-1 morning line odds. Her speed figures aren’t as high as some in here, but Higher Truth has every chance to improve. Brown has won five of the last 10 Belmont Oaks. He teamed with Irad Ortiz Jr. in 2015 to take it with Lady Eli.

4. Spanish Loveaffair

Spanish Loveaffair got off to a quick start, winning her first two career starts. She has been consistently inconsistent since then. Despite crossing the wire first in the Herecomesthebride (G3), she has not had her picture taken in nearly a year; she was disqualified to fourth in the aforementioned race. She could pick up a minor check, but I do not see a win photo in her future for this week.

Spanish Loveaffair couldn’t hold off the late charge of Gam’s Mission in the nine-furlong Regret (G3). That doesn’t bode well for her going longer against Grade 1 company. I agree with Ashley; maybe she can get a minor placing.

5. Santa Barbara (Ire)

Lightly raced Santa Barbara (IRE) brings back class to the field for trainer Aidan O’Brien. The Camelot (GB) filly won her debut and has raced exclusively in group one company since. She was a close fourth in the One Thousand Guineas (G1) at a mile. She followed that up with a well-beaten fifth in the 1 1/2-mile Cazoo Oaks (G1) and just missed the win by a neck in the 1 1/4-mile Pretty Polly (G1). Unlike Cirona (GB), Santa Barbara has raced on firmer ground, with three of her four career races coming over “good” turf, making her more likely to take to the Belmont course.

Santa Barbara fought hard to the wire in the Pretty Polly but was out-gamed by the older Thundering Nights. Previously, she was in contention in the Cazoo Oaks (G1) in the stretch but lacked enough kick to pick up a check. She is well-bred; her half-sister Iridessa is a three-time Group 1 winner and won the 2019 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf, and half-brother Australia won last year’s Breeders’ Cup Mile. She’s a must-use on the tickets, but I want better than even money odds.

6. Nazuna (Ire)

Unlike the other foreign fillies in the Belmont Oaks, Nazuna (IRE) has prior race experience in the U.S., having hopped across the pond for last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1). It was not a good showing, however, as Nazuna languished at the back of the field and made little headway in the stretch, finishing tenth. She also has primarily raced in sprints, though her most recent two starts were at a mile and 1 1/16-mile. After her stateside race in November, Nazuna did not race again for seven months, giving her only one prep for this race. Pass.

Nazuna didn’t embarrass herself in her first outing of the year, finishing a clear second in the Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Gr.3). She gained a little ground on the runaway pacesetter and was about three lengths clear of the rest of the field. But the distance and jump in class seems too much too soon.

7. Plum Ali

Plum Ali hit the ground running, so to speak, reeling off three straight victories to begin her career. She finished her juvenile season with a fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1). This year she has hit the board in each start, improving from her 2021 bow to the Wonder Again (G3). She likes the Belmont turf, compiling a 2: 1-1-0 record there. One to keep an eye on.

Plum Ali packed a powerful punch in the Wonder Again (G3) but ran out of Real Estate in the stretch. Her pedigree is iffy for 10  furlongs, but she runs like she will handle the distance. The Christophe Clement filly owns the highest late-pace figure in the field and should improve in her third start of the year.  

8.  Gam’s Mission

After a second-place debut, Gam’s Mission has run the board, ticking off three straight wins. None of them have been flashy as the Noble Mission (GB) filly has gotten up in the shadow of the wire each time. Her speed figures have improved in each of those three races. She would be one to watch if not for trainer Cherie DeVaux’s poor “shipper” and “graded stakes” stats. However, the filly is clearly talented, and stranger things have happened.

Gam’s Mission knows where the wire is and wants to get there first. But, as Ashley said, the speed figures are improving. Cherie DeVaux’s shippers are more likely to hit the board (41 percent) than to win (11 percent).