Head to Head: Handicapping the Bashford Manor Stakes

Ashley

Laurie

1.  Wilson Q (2-1)

Trainer Doug O’Neill kept Wilson Q on the East Coast after the chestnut colt won his debut in gate-to-wire fashion by a neck at Churchill Downs the week of the Preakness Stakes. The colt was well bet at 9-2 and earned an 87 Brisnet Speed Rating, the second-highest number in the field. Runner-up Gold Sweep won the Tremont Stakes next out. Third-place finisher Works for Me and sixth-place finisher Rhyme Schemes were also next out winners. He has been working steadily at Keeneland, including a bullet 5-furlong move on June 17. O’Neill is only batting nine percent (34 percent in the money) in non-graded stakes. Reylu Gutierrez once again teams up with Wilson Q and Gutierrez and O’Neill are in the money at a 33 percent clip from 6 starts. Not great stats, but the speed rating indicates the talent may be there. Contender.

Wilson Q zipped five furlongs in 57.92 seconds in his debut while being pressured the entire way. After he put away his earlier challenger, Works for Me, the Doug O’Neill trainee held off a next-out-stakes winner by a neck. By Florida Derby hero Constitution, Wilson Q is out of a full-sister to the speedy turf sprinter Bridgetown, and the family includes 1991 Kentucky Derby winner Strike the Gold. Reylu Gutierrez has only an eight percent win rate so far this meet but is in the money 33 percent of the time. Wilson Q has speed from the rail and gained experience eyeballing a competitor and putting them away. Contender.  

2.  Unified Point (10-1)

Unified Point pressed the pace from second, took over mid-stretch, and edged away to a 1 1/2-length victory upon debut. With Luis Saez aboard, the colt went off as the 3-2 favorite but earned just a 67-speed rating for the 5-furlong event, held June 4 at Churchill Downs. So far only two from that field have raced again, but neither won. Saez opted to ride The Wine Steward, so Junior Alvarado will be in the irons for the Bashford Manor. Trainer John Ortiz is winning at a 20 percent clip (41 percent in the money) with 2-year-olds and at a 20 percent rate (46 percent in the money) with maiden winners last race. He’s also 14 percent (51 percent in the money) in non-graded stakes. However, that 67 is the lowest speed rating (tie) in the field, so I have to Pass.

Unified Point won his debut, but as Ashley pointed out, he earned a 67 Brisnet figure. Unified’s son traveled five furlongs in 59.69 seconds, but was slowing at the end, getting a final furlong of 13.04 seconds. His post-race works are maintenance speed. Unified Point is the first foal out of a half-sister to stakes-wining turf miler Battle Force, and much of the black type in the family is turf oriented. Pass.

3.  Go Otto Go (7-2)

Go Otto Go wired the field in a 5-furlong maiden event at Churchill Downs as the 2-1 favorite on debut. Trained by Steven Asmussen, Go Otto Go increased his advantage at every point of call, edging away to a 4-length win. He earned just a 79-Brisnet speed rating, however. Of the rivals he faced in his debut, only fourth-place finisher Fifth Avenue won next out. Florent Geroux stays aboard for Asmussen, and together they are winning at a 44 percent clip (89 percent in the money). Use underneath.

Go Otto Go lived up to his moniker with a four-length victory in his debut. He galloped five furlongs in 59 seconds flat, getting his final furlong in 12.37 seconds. Although Go Otto Go earned only a 79 Brisnet speed rating, his E2 and late pace figures of 88 and 82 show an even energy distribution during the race. The Asmussen trainee recorded three moderate post-race breezes and should be ready to improve in his second start. The son of last year’s leading first crop sire Bolt d’Oro is out of a stakes-winning sprinter, and the family includes Grade 1-winning turf router Fourstar Crook. As an interest to pedigree geeks, Go Otto Go’s third dam Emiress is a full sister to Bailjumper, Medaglia d’Oro’s damsire. Medaglia d’Oro is Bolt d’Oro’s sire. Contender.

4.  Call Me Andy (9-2)

Call Me Andy was a debut winner for trainer Brendan Walsh. The chestnut colt pressed the pace early, grabbed the lead in mid-stretch, and won by a determined 3/4 length. He weathered a bump and raced inside, finally finding a seam to split as the field turned for home, earning a 75-speed rating for the effort. None in the field have raced since. Trainer Walsh is winning at a 23 percent clip (53 percent in the money) with last race maiden winners. Together with jockey Tyler Gaffalione, he is winning at a 26 percent clip (45 percent in the money). I like the connections, but the low speed rating is concerning. This colt will need to take a big step forward to win this. Exotics.

Call Me Andy was professional in his debut, showing he can sit off the pace and not be intimidated while racing on the rail and targeting and passing other horses. He traveled 5 1/2 furlongs in 1:04.95 and got his final half-furlong in 6.53 seconds under a hand ride. The Brendan Walsh trainee returned with two moderate four-furlong works at Churchill. Call Me Andy’s half-sister Mirth is a Grade 1 winning turf router; half-sister Vault is a Grade 2 winning dirt miler, and her full brother Heat Dome is a stakes placed juvenile. Although Call Me Andy’s speed rating was a 75, his professional demeanor, family class, and high trainer/jock stats make him a serious contender.

5.  The Wine Steward (3-1)

The Wine Steward paired with Irad Ortiz, Jr. to easily win his debut by six lengths at Belmont. The 5-furlong race was designated for state-breds, but the heavy favorite looks primed for open company. However, while the 83 Brisnet speed rating is the third highest in the field, it’s also 10 points behind the 93 put up by Magical Mark in his debut. Of those in the field that have raced since, none have won. Luis Saez will be aboard for this race, and he and trainer Mike Maker are winning at an 18 percent clip (29 percent in the money). Contender (and hopefully, he’s not stingy with the wine when he wins).

The Wine Steward hesitated at the break in his debut and settled directly behind the pacesetter early. He cut the corner while in tight and opened up by an impressive six lengths. The Mike Maker trainee got five furlongs in 58.68 seconds, and his final furlong in a brisk 11:91 seconds while galloping along with his ears up. His 91 late pace rating is the highest in the field. The cleverly named colt is by first crop sire and 2019 Champion Older Dirt Male Vino Rosso, and The Wine Steward is the first foal out of a half-sister to three black type earners; multiple Grade 2-winning turf router Isotherm, Grade 1-placed miler Gio Game, and Giant Game, who was third in the 2021 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Definitely a contender.

6.  Lou’s Legacy (20-1)

Lou’s Legacy enters as a maiden after three career starts, most recently finishing fifth behind Call Me Andy, beaten 4 3/4-lengths. He was fourth on debut as a huge longshot but finished second in the Kentucky Juvenile Stakes at 10-1 in his second outing. His best speed rating, a 75, came in the Kentucky Juvenile, but he was nowhere near the winner, finishing 8 3/4-lengths back. Trainer Hugo Andrade is winning at just a three percent rate (29 percent in the money) with 2-year-olds but is winning non-graded stakes at an 18 percent clip (36 percent in the money). However, Andrade is 0-for-6 with jockey Yarmarie Correa in the last 60 days, though they have landed in the money at a 50 percent clip. Pass.

Trainer Hugo Andrade hopes an extra half-furlong will help his one-run closer Lou’s Legacy get to the wire first or at least pick up a check. By Tapiture,  Lou’s Legacy is a full brother to multiple stakes placed sprinter/miler Tap Dancing Lady and two other black-type earners. However, he hasn’t come close to the winner’s circle, and his speed ratings are poor. Pass.

7.  Magical Mark (5-1)

Magical Mark demolished a maiden field to the tune of 10 lengths as the 2-5 favorite in his debut at Lonestar on May 11. The colt broke sharp and established the lead, getting away to a 5-length lead in the stretch and adding on to that lead all the way to the wire in the 4 1/2-furlong event. He earned a sparkling 93 Brisnet speed rating for that dazzling debut, the highest figure in the field. Runner-up Emily’s Bullet was a next out winner. Third-place-finisher Da Ringo improved to second in his next start, and fifth-place-finisher Cool Ride was third in his subsequent start. Trainer Karl Broberg is 19 percent (48 percent in the money) with shippers and 18 percent (47 percent in the money) with runners coming off a 46–to-90-day layoff. Jockey Cristian Torres hops aboard for this colt’s second start; in the last 60 days, Torres and Broberg have teamed up twice, not hitting the board either time. This will be a significant step up for Magical Mark as he enters off a $33,000 maiden race at Lonestar, but the breeding and talent appear to be there. Contender.

Magical Mark disappeared down the stretch by ten lengths in his 4 1/2 furlong debut at Lone Star. His final time of 52.43 seconds was quick; the track record is 50.83 seconds, set in 2009. Karl Broberg breezed his charge twice since the victory; both works at Lone Star.

Magical Mark is by leading second-crop sire Good Magic. The colt’s three half-siblings are sprinter/milers on all surfaces, but none own black type. His second dam is a multiple graded-stakes winner of over $1 million in 27 starts. Contender.

                Laurie

           Ashley

1. Wilson Q (2-1)

7. Magical Mark (5-1)

5. The Wine Steward (3-1)

1. Wilson Q (2-1)

3. Go Otto Go (7-2)

5. The Wine Steward (3-1)

4. Call Me Andy (9-2)

3. Go Otto Go (7-2)