Head to Head: Handicapping the American Pharoah Stakes

ASHLEY

LAURIE

1. Gandolfini (12-1)

Gandolfini debuted a winner for Bob Baffert three weeks ago at Los Alamitos. He pressed the pace early before grabbing the lead for himself on the backstretch. From there, it was a battle to the wire with stubborn runner-up Odonata. The son of Justify earned a mediocre 82 Brisnet speed figure for the effort. Exotics.

Gandolfini was all out to beat maidens at Los Alamitos in his debut. It was an arduous task to race wide the entire way while traveling a mile, and he finished his final furlong in 13.17 seconds. One runner returned to win – Macnamara. Justify's son is out of a stakes placed mare who earned over $300,000 the hard way, and there is little black type in his distaff line.

2. Man Child (30-1)

Man Child has never been worse than third, and that’s the best I can say about him. He managed to hang around for third in the Best Pal (G3), behind winner and eventual Del Mar Futurity runner-up Havnameltdown, and was third in the restricted Capote Stakes. Toss.

Man Child was outclassed in the Best Pal (G3) and the restricted Capote Stakes. He'll need to man up to be competitive here. Pass.

3. Macnamara (50-1)

Macnamara debuted on September 17 at Los Alamitos and was never involved, finishing seventh, beaten by 17 lengths. He tried again on September 25. He took a class drop, got a new jockey, and changed running tactics to get the win by a neck. This will be his third start in three weeks. Couple that with his dismal speed figures, which actually dropped from his debut to his second start, and you have a complete toss.

Macnamara finished 17 lengths behind Gandolfini in their debut. The Jeff Engler trainee was hard-pressed to hold off a maiden claiming field in his last start. Pass.

4. Odonata (20-1)

A son of the perpetual but competive maiden Laoban, Odonata himself enters this spot without a win to his name. In his last two starts, this colt finished fourth behind Breeders’ Futurity (G1) runner Newgate and fellow American Pharoah runner Gandolfini, both trained by Bob Baffert. In recent years, Calumet Farm, who owns the colt, has become known for sending out outclassed runners in graded stakes, and this is no exception. Pass.

Still a maiden, Odonata's speed ratings have improved slightly with each start. He tried hard but couldn't get by Gandolfini in his last start. Pass. 

5. Cave Rock (4-5)

So far Cave Rock has proven as brilliant as his late sire Arrogate. He’s won both career races by open lengths, including the Del Mar Futurity (G1) last out. He earned a 104 Brisnet speed figure in his debut and a 105 in the Futurity. The one to beat.

Cave Rock scored triple-digit Brisnet speed figures in both starts, including a new stakes record in the Del Mar Futurity. He was less than a second off the track record for seven furlongs. Hard to argue with perfect. Contender.

6. National Treasure (6-1)

Another debut winner for Bob Baffert, National Treasure blazed through the first half mile of his debut but crawled home late. He was game, though, and repelled the bids of his rivals when they came at him. Baffert takes the blinkers off, an angle in which he wins at a 33 percent clip. Use underneath.

National Treasure grabbed the lead and turned back two challengers to win his debut by 1 1/2 lengths at Del Mar. He earned a 90 Brisnet speed rating but a middling 81 late pace figure. Quality Road's son is out of a half-sister to a couple of stakes-winning turf sprinter/milers. Exotics.

7. Skinner (5-1)

Skinner remains a maiden after two career starts. He improved greatly off his debut to hit the board last out in the Del Mar Futurity (G1), earning a 92 Brisnet speed figure. John Shirreffs was obviously pleased with the effort as he chose to run him back here. Use underneath.

Skinner was off slow in both of his starts. The John Shirreffs trainee made up ground in the Del Mar Futurity and picked up a check for third place, 9 1/2 lengths behind Cave Rock. By Curlin, out of a Grade 3-winning daughter of Malibu Moon, Skinner has a later-maturing pedigree. He may have an exotics shot if he can leave the gate with the rest of the field. Exotics.

8. Hejazi (5-2)

Hejazi has gone to post as the favorite in both career starts and finished second in both. Classical Cat, the winner of his debut race, came back to run seventh in the Del Mar Futurity. Speed Boat Beach, the winner of his second start, came back to remain undefeated with a score in the Speakeasy Stakes. Maybe a route of ground rather than a sprint will see Hejazi finally find the winner’s circle. Contender.

Hejazi chased the winner home in both of his starts. He was bested 2 1/2 lengths by Classical Cat in his debut, and that one was seventh in the Del Mar Futurity. Next time out, Hejazi couldn't catch Speed Boat Beach, the recent winner of the Speakeasy Stakes, but earned a 101 speed rating for his effort. Bernardini's son is out of a daughter of Medaglia d'Oro and should improve with racing. His dam's half-sister bore this year's Rebel (G2) winner Un Ojo, and Hejazi hails from the family of Florida Derby hero Friends Lake. Exotics.