Head to Head: Handicapping the Alabama Stakes

ASHLEY

LAURIE

1. Skratch Kat (30-1)

Skratch Kat has five career starts, all at 1 1/16 miles. She earned her best career Brisnet speed figure, a 90, last out in optional claiming company. She is a one run type, and this will be a huge step up in class for her against proven grade one runners. Pass.

Skratch Kat was all out to hold of the second-place finisher in an allowance optional claimer at Churchill Downs, while running greenly. Skratching this one off my list. Pass.  

2. Goddess of Fire (20-1)

Trainer Todd Pletcher is adding blinkers to Goddess of Fire, who likes to press the pace. While she has yet to win a race aside from her debut, she has placed in a couple of Grade 2 events. Both times she has faced Gerrymander, Nest, or Secret Oath, she has been no match for them. However, she does like the Saratoga track, having won her debut here and most recently finishing second by 3/4-length in the Wilton Stakes. Look for her to pick up a minor placing. Exotics.

Goddess of Fire was no match for Secret Oath, Nest or Gerrymander in previous races. The Pletcher trainee just missed in the Wilton Stakes at a mile, and gets blinkers. Goddess of Fire’s immediate family is sprinter/miler oriented; her half-brother is multiple Grade 1 winning sprinter Mind Control, and her dam is a stakes-winning turf sprinter. The jump in class and distance could dampen her sprit, but she’s capable of closing for a lower exotics spot.

3. Gerrymander (7-2)

Gerrymander has thus far posted a lose-win-lose-win type record. She’s Grade 1 placed, and as a 2-year old she defeated Nest in the Tempted Stakes. In her first attempt at 2 turns, Gerrymander defeated the odds on favorite, JuJu’s Map, in the Mother Goose (G2), while earning a career best speed figure of 104. She has a win at Saratoga already, but if you like patterns, then don’t play Gerrymander to win as she is on the “lose” portion of her pattern. Exotics.

Gerrymander steps up in distance and class after a three-length victory in the Mother Goose. Gerrymander could handle 1 1/4 miles; Although Into Mischief’s only winner at the distance is Authentic, Gerrymander’s half-brother Lone Rock dominated last year’s Brooklyn Stakes at 1 1/2 miles. The Chad Brown trainee has the ability to rate off the pace. Additionally, Joel Rosario has hit the board in 64% of dirt routes this meet. Contender.

4. Nest (1-2)

While 3-year old fillies don’t get many opportunities at 1 1/4 miles, the distance of the Alabama, Nest has already run a solid second against males at 1 1/2 mile in the Belmont (G1). She followed that up by absolutely dominating both Secret Oath and Nostalgic in the CCA Oaks (G1), drawing off to win by 12-lengths. She owns the highest Brisnet speed figure in the field, incidentally coming against the boys in the Belmont. Win contender.

Nest might have won the Belmont Stakes if not for a bad stumble at the start. She returned to dominate the CCA Oaks here July 23, beating Secret Oath and Nostalgic. Hard to look past her. Win contender.

5. Nostalgic (12-1)

Nostalgic won the Gazelle (G3) but has proven no match for Nest and Secret Oath in their previous meetings. Her best career Brisnet speed figure is a 98, but she earned a mediocre 87 last out when finishing third behind Nest and Secret Oath in the CCA Oaks (G1). Exotics.

Nostalgic seeks a better trip in her third Grade 1 event. She had to steady between horses in the Kentucky Oaks, and was bumped around a bit while between horses in the CCA Oaks. Worth an exotics look.

6. She's Keen (30-1)

She’s Keen just broke her maiden last out after four prior attempts. She got that elusive first win here at Saratoga but earned just an 80 speed figure. Dam Spelling’s best offspring thus far has been Spelling Again, a sprinter; however, sire Keen Ice de-throned Triple Crown winner American Pharoah here at Saratoga during his racing career. All in all…Toss.

She's Keen is a late bloomer bred to run all day. That doesn’t mean she’ll do it fast. The Rusty Arnold trainee won her fifth start, a 1 1/8 mile maiden here in a relaxed 1:54.70, although she ran each quarter quicker than the previous, which we don’t see every day. Toss.

7. Secret Oath (4-1)

Secret Oath’s best race to date was the Kentucky Oaks (G1) in which she earned her only career triple-digit speed figure. When stretching out in the Preakness (G1) and taking on the boys, she got up to take a non-threatening fourth. However, despite beating Nest in the Kentucky Oaks, Nest turned around and annihilated her in the CCA Oaks (G1). As good as Secret Oath is, she will need to take a big step forward to turn the tables on Nest. Contender.

Secret Oath has the pedigree to handle ten furlongs, and she beat Nest over a wet-fast track in the Kentucky Oaks. However, the Lukas trainee had a wide trip in the CCA Oaks. She challenged Nest briefly, but Nest proved much the best. Despite the wide trip, never switching leads, bearing out, and clearly exhausted, Secret Oath bested Nostalgic by three lengths. Looks like another wide trip in the Alabama, and she adds a furlong. I’m taking a stand against. Pass.