Head to Head: See 2 sides of the 2024 Santa Margarita Stakes

Ashley

Laurie

1.  Hennys Crazy Train (20-1)

Trained by John Sadler, Hennys Crazy Train returns to the dirt after racing on turf in her last four starts. She went 4: 1-2-1 during that span and posted a career-high 99 Equibase speed figure in two of those races. She has recent excellent form; however, she’s been racing against claiming company or in lower level allowance races. Regular rider Hector Isaac Berrios retains the mount. This is a big ask for this mare. Pass.

Hennys Crazy Train is a consistent mare; she’s hit the board in 16 of 24 starts and she’s capable on dirt and turf. The knocks against the Sadler trainee are her low Brisnet speed ratings, she’s not dominating optional claimers, and that she’s a polite filly, letting others get the glory while she settles for second and third place. She’s won twice in the last two years. I'm not climbing aboard this crazy train. Pass.

2.  Super Shine (3-1)

Trained by Philip D’Amato, Super Shine is a grade two winner on dirt and turf in her home country of Argentina. She arrived in the U.S. earlier this year and was a very close second in the Santa Maria (G2) in April, beaten by just a neck by Coffee in Bed. She boasts the highest Equibase speed figure in the field with the 114 she received when dominating the Arturo R. y Arturo Bullrich (G2) in Argentina last year. She earned a 93 for her runner-up effort in the Santa Maria (G2). Frankie Dettori has the return call for the D’Amato, and this mare should be sharper in this spot second off year-long layoff. Contender.

This Argentinean mare hopes to follow in the hoofprints of three others from her country as a winner of the Santa Margarita. Those include Blue Stripe (2022), plus the remarkable Paseana, who won the 1992 and 1994 editions and missing by a head in 1993, and the only back-to-back heroine, Bayakoa (1989, 1990). Super Shine was an impressive second to Coffee in Bed in her first start in the USA after almost a year layoff, and earned a 90 Brisnet figure. Does this signal a regression in her second start, or can she improve on the effort? Only Super Shine knows for sure. Exotics.

3.  Coffee in Bed (5-2)

Trained by Richard Mandella, Coffee in Bed enters off a victory over Super Shine in the Santa Maria (G2). Prior to that, she was sixth in the Beholder Mile (G1), a race in which Adare Manor was the runner-up. Coffee in Bed is rather inconsistent and has never strung together multiple victories. Hall of Famer Mike Smith has the call. Exotics.

Coffee in Bed won the Santa Maria, a key prep for the Santa Margarita. However, there are a few knocks against her. As Ashley noted, she’s inconsistent, and her Brisnet ratings hover in the 80’s, with the occasional 90. Plus, she’s never tried 1 1/8 miles. Although her sire is Curlin, her female family is speed-oriented, and she’s the only one of her siblings to have a win at 1 1/16 miles. A full brother failed to hit the board at 1 1/8 miles, as did a half-brother by Malibu Moon. Exotics.

4.  Blue Dream Machine (12-1)

Trained by Richard Baltas, 4-year old Blue Dream Machine did not debut until February of this year. She was a debut winner going 6 1/2 furlongs but could only manage fourth against this group in the Santa Maria (G2) last out, beaten by 4 3/4 lengths. None from her debut race have come back to win, but the second- and third-place finishers did hit the board in their next starts. It’s still early enough in her career that it’s hard to say for certain what kind of runner she will end up being, but with Arrogate as her sire, it’s hard to completely look past this filly. Exotics.

Blue Dream Machine is the “Why?” horse of the Santa Margarita. This late bloomer graduated at first asking at Aqueduct, but her Santa Maria performance was dull. She tailgated the speed but was in a traffic jam for much of the race. While her rivals surged forward, Blue Dream Machine failed to quicken and fell back. She was tired and one-paced down the stretch, but she managed to beat two horses. The pretty gray filly’s speed ratings are the lowest in the field, and she’ll need notable improvement to run with these. Pass.

5.  Adare Manor (3-5)

Trained by Bob Baffert, Adare Manor enters this race off a career-best effort in the Apple Blossom Handicap (G1). She took the field gate-to-wire, winning by 5 1/2 lengths with an Equibase speed figure of 113, second only to Super Shine’s 114. She’s only been off the board at Santa Anita once, with a record of 11: 6-4-0 at this track. That lone out-of-the-exacta finish came back in November in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) where she ran into some traffic issues and weakened late. Regular rider J. J. Hernandez retains the mount. Contender.

Adare Manor hopes to join Bayakoa as the second back-to-back winner of the Santa Margarita. The Baffert trainee is the class of the field and the only one who typically records triple-digit speed ratings. Contender.

           Ashley

           Laurie

2. Super Shine (3-1)

5. Adare Manor (3-5)

5. Adare Manor (3-5)

3. Coffee in Bed (5-2)

3. Coffee in Bed (5-2)

2. Super Shine (3-1)