Risen Star Head to Head: 2 views of Kentucky Derby prep

Laurie

Ashley

1. Tizzy Indy (50-1)

A veteran of seven starts with only one victory, Tizzy Indy has struggled against optional claimers and was out of his league in the Lecomte, checking in 13 lengths behind Track Phantom.

Tizzy Indy’s pedigree says he should handle middle distances and mud. Race Lens shows that Take Charge Indy has an above-average 18 percent winners in mud routes. His son is out of the unraced Tiznow mare, Tizzy Fever. Class skips to the third generation of his female family, including multiple Grade 1 winner Raging Fever and her stakes-winning full brothers Roaring Fever and Stormin Fever.

The Desormeaux trainee’s Brisnet speed ratings are low, and I don’t see anything to recommend him. Pass.

By Take Charge Indy, Tizzy Indy enters off a 5th place finish in the Lecomte (G3). I didn’t like him in that race, and after seeing him get beaten by 13 1/4 lengths against similar company, I certainly don’t like him here. James Graham retains the mount for trainer Keith Desormeaux. Pass.

2. Awesome Ruta (30-1)

Like Tizzy Indy, Awesome Ruta has visited the winner’s circle once in multiple starts and does his best work sprinting in Louisiana’s bull rings.

Mendelssohn has an excellent 20 percent winners over mud routes, and his son is the first foal out of the unraced Awesome Again mare, Awesome Prayer. His second dam is Malibu Prayer, a Grade 1 winner at 1 1/8 miles, so a mile to middle distances should be within his scope.

The Joseph Foster trainee’s speed ratings are better than Tizzy Indy’s, but he still needs plenty of improvement to be competitive. Pass.

By Mendelssohn, Awesome Ruta has just one victory from six career starts. Though the colt was a neck shy of winning the $100,000 Jean Lafitte Stakes in November, he enters off three straight losses in high-level optional claiming company, beaten by a combined total of 21 1/2 lengths. Trainer Joseph Foster has never won a graded-stakes race. He’s won a trio of minor stakes, but his last victory at that level was back in 2020. Mitchell Murrill has the mount for the first time. Pass.

3. Honor Marie (6-1)

Honor Marie returns for his seasonal debut after a sweeping last-to-first triumph in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), besting Real Men Violin by two lengths. So far, none of Honor Marie’s rivals have hit the board in their next outing, although fifth-place finisher Awesome Road was fourth in the Southwest (G3). Honor Marie earned a lofty 96 Brisnet speed rating, with a field-best 102 late pace figure.

By champion older horse, Honor Code, Honor Marie is a half to Grade 2-placed turf horse Abarta and is out of the Grade 2-placed turf miler, Dame Marie, a daughter of Smart Strike. The second generation of his female family is filled with international turf stakes winners.

Honor Marie’s pedigree, conformation, and closing running style shout classic distances. In his second start, he closed over a muddy track. Trainer Whit Beckman gave Honor Marie a series of 5-furlong works, including a bullet 59.60, in preparation for the Risen Star.

My concern is whether Honor Marie is fit to handle 1 1/8 miles off the layoff to win. He just needs a solid in-the-money finish to set him up for his final Kentucky Derby prep. Contender.

By Honor Code, Honor Marie has been off since winning the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) in November. He bested Real Men Violin by two lengths in that race. Honor Marie has never been out of the exacta in three career starts, and his only loss was to Otto the Conqueror who went on to win the $300,000 Springboard Mile but was most recently a well-beaten 6th in the Southwest (G3). Trainer D. Whitworth Beckman has just one graded stakes win to his name courtesy of Honor Marie but finishes in the money at a 42 percent clip. He’s just 6 percent (22 percent in the money) with runners entering off a 2-6 month layoff and has been on a recent cold streak, going winless in the last 30 days, according to Race Lens. Regular jockey Rafael Bejarano retains the mount. Contender.

4. Sierra Leone (4-1)

We know Sierra Leone can handle 1 1/8 miles after a heroic effort in Remsen Stakes, where only a nose defeat kept him from the winner’s circle. His final furlong was timed in 12.88 over Aquduct’s muddy track, and he benefitted from a swift early pace.

By Gun Runner, Sierra Leone is the second foal out of Grade 1 heroine Heavenly Love. His second and third dams are also graded stakes winners.

In the Remsen, Sierra Leone passed the pacesetter Dornoch and hesitated instead of opening up, allowing Dornoch to surge forward. The effort earned Sierra Leone a 98 speed rating, the best in the Risen Star field. Chad Brown outfits Sierra Leone with a shiny new set of blinkers to keep him focused on moving forward and not on the competition. Contender.

By Gun Runner, Sierra Leone gave Dornoch everything he wanted and then some in the Remsen (G2) but fell a nose short of victory. He earned a career-high 99 Equibase speed figure despite the muddy track. Drum Roll Please, the third-place finisher of the Remsen, most recently won the $150,000 Jerome Stakes. In his only other start, Sierra Leone bested a group of maidens by 1 1/4 lengths. That field produced two next-out winners and two more that also eventually became winners. The runner-up from that race, Change of Command, was most recently 11th in the Sam F. Davis (G3). Trainer Chad Brown is adding blinkers for this race and wins at a 27 percent clip (63 percent in the money) with runners getting first-time blinkers. Tyler Gaffalione hops aboard for the first time and will be the colt’s third jockey in as many starts. Contender.

5. Moonlight (12-1)

In the Remsen Stakes, Moonlight made a long, sustained, grinding effort to gradually gain fourth place, 7 1/4 lengths behind Sierra Leone. The pretty gray colt offered a similar effort in the Kentucky Jockey Club, being pushed from mid-race onward and passing tired horses to gain second place.

By Florida Derby (G1) victor and leading second-crop sire Audible, Moonlight is out of Sundown, an unraced daughter of Tapit. His dam’s half-siblings are black type earners on dirt and turf, ranging from 7 1/2 furlongs to 1 1/8 miles. Golden Rod (G2) heroine Hoosier Philly is part of the family, and 2001 Kentucky Derby runner-up Invisible Ink is a distant relative.

Todd Pletcher gave Moonlight a series of four-furlong breezes at Palm Beach Downs; the last was in 48.09, second-best of the day. In a previous work, Moonlight kept pace with Demoiselle (G2) heroine Life Talk until the gallop out. He was scrubbed on, yet she passed him easily on the outside without being asked. This one-paced grinder may need a fast pace to close. Maybe he can hit the lower exotics, but I’ll pass.

By Audible, Moonlight also exits the Remsen (G2). He was fourth, beaten by 7 1/4 lengths, in that race. Though he rallied for fourth, he lost ground on the leaders in the stretch. Before that, he was second in the Street Sense (G3) to Liberal Arts, who most recently finished third in the Southwest (G3). Florent Geroux takes over from regular rider Irad Ortiz, Jr. for trainer Todd Pletcher. Pass.

6. Real Men Violin (8-1)

In the Kentucky Jockey Club, Real Men Violin got caught up arguing with eventual third-place finisher Stretch Ride while Honest Marie barreled past. Real Men Violin picked up the pace late to run with Honor Marie.

Composed by Mendelssohn out of an unraced half-sister to Grade 1 winner I Want Revenge, Real Men Violin has one victory in 6 starts but has placed 4 times and finished third once. Fast dirt, mud, or turf, it’s all the same to him.

The Ken McPeek trainee is a polite horse; he lets others go first. Real Men Violin prefers to run with other horses and will disengage from a rival to run with a passing horse. These types rarely win but often pick up a check. Yes, he beat a staggering Track Phantom two starts back; however, he closed into fast fractions, and Track Phantom was leg-weary through the stretch. Ken McPeek gave Real Men Violin a second-to-last bullet 5-furlong breeze in 59.60. Exotics chance.

By Mendelssohn, Real Men Violin enters off a runner-up finish to Honor Marie in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) where he earned a career-high 95 Equibase speed figure. The chestnut colt has raced on dirt and turf and has never been out of the trifecta. It did take him five attempts to break his maiden, and the runner-up in the race he won was none other than Track Phantom. Regular rider Brian Hernandez, Jr. retains the mount for trainer Kenny McPeek. Exotics.

7. Hall of Fame (6-1)

Hall of Fame ran to the promise of his $1.4 million purchase in his second start, destroying a field of maidens at the Fair Grounds by ten lengths and getting 1 1/16 miles in 1:44.31 with his final sixteenth in 6.30 seconds. The time was comparable to Track Phantom’s Lecome time of 1:44.72 and final sixteenth of 6.59 seconds on the same card. Hall of Fame settled behind the pace and squeezed through a tight opening on the rail before putting the field away. He was professional down the stretch and stayed in his lane. Hall of Fame earned a 91 Brisnet speed rating and can improve in his second start off the layoff.

Gun Runner has a superior 24 percent rate of off-track winners. His son is the first foal out of the unraced Giant’s Causeway mare, Flag Day. She’s a half-sister to multiple graded stakes-placed turf horse street Ready. Multiple Grade 1-winning handicap veteran Diversify is part of the extended family.

Steve Asmussen gave Hall of Fame a 5-furlong work in 1:01.00, the same time as his pre-race work for his maiden start. Exotics.

By Gun Runner, Hall of Fame enters off a 10 1/4-length romp in a 1 1/16-mile, $60,000 maiden event last month here at Fair Grounds. He received a 97 Equibase speed figure for the effort. Since that race was on January 20, it’s a bit early to tell what he beat in that race, although one of his rivals was third next-out on the turf. Hall of Fame had one prior start, a runner-up effort in a 7-furlong maiden event at Churchill Downs. That race hasn’t been particularly productive, with just one eventual winner and a couple that hit the board in their next starts. Ricardo Santana, Jr. takes the reins for the first time, giving the Steve Asmussen trainee his third jockey in as many starts. Hall of Fame comes off Lasix and could play spoiler. Exotics.

8. Catching Freedom (5-1)

In the Smarty Jones Stakes, Catching Freedom was reserved near the back of the pack early and gradually picked off horses before Cristian Torres swung him five-wide. However, Catching Freedom was green down the stretch. Turning his head sideways and altering his path down the lane, the blinkered colt lost focus briefly. However, once he caught up to the fighting leaders, his mind got back on track and passed them effortlessly. Catching Freedom traveled 1 1/16 miles over a fast track in 1:44.59, with a final 1/16 in 6.25. It was an even effort, and the Brad Cox trainee earned an 89 speed rating with a late-pace figure of 87.

By Florida Derby hero Constitution, Catching Freedom is out of Pioneerof the Nile’s Grade 1-placed daughter Catch My Drift. Catching Freedom is half to Grade 3 placed Bishops Bay and stakes placed Strava. Catching Freedom should handle an off-track. His sire has 18% winners, and a half-sibling won in the slop.

The Brad Cox trainee should love the extra distance in the Risen Star but must focus. Hopefully, Brad Cox has straightened him out. Contender.

By Constitution, Catching Freedom enters off a 2 1/2-length victory in the $300,000 Smarty Jones at Oaklawn. He earned a 97 Equibase speed figure for the effort. Mystik Dan, who was fifth, and Just Steel, who was secnd, came back to run 1-2 in the Southwest (G3). Luis Saez will get a leg up from trainer Brad Cox. Contender.

9. Cardinale (12-1)

Cardinale graduated at first asking last November at Gulfstream against a poor group; none of his rivals have won in subsequent starts. In his next start, the Todd Pletcher trainee was second by a neck to Change of Command, but that one returned a disappointing 21 1/2 length loser in the Sam F. Davis (G3).

Speightstown has an above-average 19 percent rate of off-track winners. His son is the first foal out of the winning Medaglia d’Oro mare Foolish Living. Her full sister, Ballet Dancing, is a Grade 3-winning turf router, and a half-brother is multiple graded placed from 1 1/8 miles to 1 1/4 miles. Champion juvenile filly Halfbridled is part of the extended family.

Cardinale recorded the typical breeze pattern of the Pletcher barn, a series of 4-furlong works in the 48.0-to-49.0-second range. His speed ratings are at the low end of the Risen Star range. The bright spot is his pacesetter/presser style, which might keep Track Phantom busy and ensure an honest pace. Pass.

By Speightstown, Cardinale enters off a neck loss in an optional claimer. Change of Command, who beat him in that race, was most recently 11th in the Sam F. Davis (G3). The Todd Pletcher trainee did win his debut, a six-furlong, $50,000 maiden event at Gulfstream Park. However, only one foe from that field has become a winner and one other runner hit the board in their next start. Cardinale comes off Lasix, and Pletcher also removes the blinkers, an angle that gives him a 43 percent (86 percent in the money) success rate. Flavien Prat takes over from Edgard Zayas. Pass.

10. Resilience (12-1)

Resilience has faced some nice colts in his quest to find the winner’s circle. He’s finished behind Grade 1 winner Locked, plus graded placed Stronghold and Nash. In his last race, the Bill Mott trainee showed a new dimension from his usual closing style, getting a good pressing position between horses before sweeping 3-wide on his way to a 4 1/2-length victory. Resilience earned a career-best 93 rating and a 97 late-pace figure.

Into Mischief’s son is out of the winning Smart Strike mare Meadowsweet. She’s a half to Grade 1-winning stallions After Market, Courageous Cat, and Grade 2 winner Jalil. His second dam is multiple Grade 1-winning turf router Tranquility Lake. His sire has 19 percent winners, and a half-brother won over mud, so Resilience could handle the off going. Additionally, he has classic-distance breeding. Although he’s in a challenging position, Resilience might be maturing at the right time and could surprise. Bill Mott’s last-out maiden winner Modernist won a division of the 2020 Risen Star. Live longshot.

By Into Mischief, Resilience is a last-out maiden winner. It took the colt four attempts to get his picture taken, but he faced some tough company. He debuted in the same race as Locked, who won the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and was third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1). Jerome winner Drum Roll Please was also in that field. In his second start, he beat Track Phantom, who was third, but finished behind Bob Hope (G3) and Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) runner-up Stronghold. In his third start, Resilience was third to Gun Runner third-place finisher and Lecomte (G3) runner-up Nash. His most recent race was a 1 1/16-mile, $89,000 maiden event at Gulfstream Park. That field has not produced any winners, but several did hit the board in their next start. I really want to like this Bill Mott trainee because he’s kept tough company, but he couldn’t beat Nash, who Track Phantom defeated in their last two starts. John Velazquez retains the mount. Pass.

11. Track Phantom (7-2)

Track Phantom puts his 3-race win streak on the line in his quest to sweep the Fair Grounds preps for the Kentucky Derby. His speed rating is consistently in the 90s, yet his late pace figure in his last two starts was in the 80s.

Quality Road’s son is the second foal out of Grade 2-winning sprinter Miss Sunset, a daughter of Into Mischief. The extended distaff line includes the multi-millionaire and multiple-graded veteran Prayer for Relief.

The Steve Asmussen trainee is the confirmed speed of the field; however, his outside post doesn’t do him any favors, and there are other chinks in his armor that make him beatable. Exotics.

By Quality Road, Track Phantom is the deserving favorite after rattling off three straight wins, including the $100,000 Gun Runner and the Lecomte (G3). He earned a career and field-best 100 Equibase speed figure in the Gun Runner. Drawing post 11 is unfortunate for the speedster, but I think he can overcome that. There aren’t many speedy types in this field, so that will help. Joel Rosario retains the mount for trainer Steve Asmussen. Contender.

12. Bee Dancer (20-1)

Bee Dancer leaps straight from a debut maiden victory against sprinters onto the Risen Star stage. The Dallas Stewart trainee bested maidens in a strong 1:10.92 with a 12:50 final furlong.

By Grade 1-winning miler Bee Jersey, Bee Dancer is the first foal out of Dance Star, a daughter of Sea the Stars. The third generation of his distaff line is primarily European and includes Grade 1 winner and Canadian champion turf horse Perfect Soul. Third-crop sire Bee Jersey has just 3 winners from 27 starters over off-tracks. With the expected pace leader Track Phantom to his inside, Bee Dancer may extend early energy to get a decent position or challenge for the lead. Pass.

By Bee Jersey, Bee Dancer has just one start under his girth, a length win in a 6-furlong, $60,000 maiden event here at Fair Grounds last month. Because that race was on January 20, none from that field have made subsequent starts, making Bee Dancer a completely unknown variable. Trainer Dallas Stewart has been known to pull off some shockers, but I’m not seeing that here. Corey Lanerie takes over from Brian Hernandez, Jr. Pass.