Rebel Head to Head: 2 views to handicap Kentucky Derby prep
The Grade 2, $1.2 million Rebel Stakes is the third of four Kentucky Derby 2024 prep races contested at Oaklawn.
A field of 13 3-year-old colts will race 1 1/16 miles and features the return of Grade 1 winner Timberlake, who was last seen finishing fourth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. The contest, carded as race 11 of 12 with a 6:23 EST post time, awards a scale of 50-25-15-10-5 Derby qualifying points.
Pay attention to the Triple Crown prospects of the Rebel winner. Alumni include American Pharoah, Smarty Jones, Curlin, Afleet Alex and Lookin at Lucky, to name a few.
Ashley Tamulonis of Coast To Coast and Laurie Ross of Pedigree Power sort through the past performances and pedigrees to find the top four contenders.
|
Ashley |
Laurie |
|
1. Carbone (15-1) |
|
|
Carbone enters off a seventh-place effort in the Southwest (G3). I did list him as a contender for that race but ultimately left him out of my top four selections. The colt previously was undefeated but caught a sloppy track for the first time in his career. He tried for his usual early lead but was beaten to the punch by Otto the Conqueror. Maybe the slop had something to do with it, but the pace certainly didn't, as it was run similarly to Carbone's previous race. Jockey Isaac Castillo replaces regular rider Ricardo Santana Jr., who appears to be riding elsewhere this weekend, for trainer Steve Asmussen. Castillo and Asmussen win together at just a 10 percent clip, 23 percent in the money. He should catch a fast track this weekend, so Carbone could potentially rebound to his prior form. I'm willing to give him another shot. Exotics. |
Carbone looked like a win contender in the Southwest (G3) before falling apart like a soggy taco halfway through the race and staggering home 21 lengths behind Mystik Dan. Gun Runner's son didn't look comfortable at any point while being asked to press the pace and backed out of it when he was pressed between horses. Previously, the Asmussen trainee relaxed on the lead at shorter distances. Mitole's son will have speed to his outside in the Rebel, and I expect he'll be pressed like he was in the Southwest. I'm not convinced that Carbone wants to run two turns. So far, Mitole has one winner from 10 starts at 1 1/16 miles, although four others placed second or third. He could hold on for a lower exotics placing. |
|
2. Northern Flame (5-1) |
|
|
Northern Flame has only two wins from seven starts and has hit the board in one additional race. But he has kept tough company. He faced Timberlake in his debut but did beat Grade 2-placed Real Men Violin, who most recently was eighth in the Risen Star (G2), in his maiden-breaking third start. In his fourth start, he finished fourt, beaten by just 4 1/2 lengths, in the Breeders' Futurity (G1). He was then fifth in the Street Sense (G3) and fourth in an optional claimer to finish out his juvenile season. The Kenny McPeek trainee made his season bow a winning one, taking a $100,000 optional claimer at Oaklawn gate-to-wire for a determined neck victory over Mena. Regular rider Julien Leparoux retains the mount. Pass. |
Northern Flame wins only when he has the lead. The Ken McPeek trainee fought every step in an allowance event at Oaklawn last month and repelled a close bid by the runner-up, Mena. The field included Grade 2-placed Market Street and Gettysburg Address, who was fourth in the Smarty Jones Stakes, so Northern Flame beat a decent field. By no. 7-ranked second-crop sire Flameaway, Northern Flame is half to a Florida Oaks (G3) runner-up, and their dam is a 3/4-sister to Alcibiades (G1) winner Heavenly Love, the dam of Risen Star hero Sierra Leone. Northern Flame's speed ratings improved in his last two starts, and another jump would make him competitive here if he's able to get the lead. Exotics. |
|
3. Common Defense (30-1) |
|
|
By Karakontie, Common Defense enters off a fifth-place effort in the Southwest, where he was beaten by 17 1/4 lengths. The Kenny McPeek trainee's debut race has not yet produced a next-out winner aside from Common Defense, and many from that field still have not made subsequent starts. The race he won in January also has not produced any next-out winners, though the second- through fourth-place finishers all hit the board in their next start. Brian Hernandez Jr. becomes Common Defense's fourth jockey in as many starts; Julien Leparoux, who was aboard in the Southwest, instead will be aboard stablemate Northern Flame. I did not pick this colt in the Southwest, and my opinion has not changed. Pass. |
After besting maidens by 3 1/2 lengths, Common Defense surrendered in the deep Southwest Stakes (G3). The Kenny McPeek trainee made up ground but flattened out in the stretch, finishing 17 lengths behind Mystik Dan. Common Defense's speed ratings are low, and I don't see him as a threat. Pass. |
|
4. Tejon Pass (30-1) |
|
|
Tejon Pass is 1-for-5 lifetime for trainer Peter Miller. But he was third in the Bob Hope (G3), beaten by 12 lengths by the undefeated, dual-graded winner Nysos. He then ran second to Valentine Candy, who has now won three straight stakes races at Oaklawn, in the Renaissance Stakes. Tejon Pass most recently was fifth in a optional claimer at Oaklawn, finishing 2 1/2 lengths behind winner Woodcourt. Next Level was second, beaten by just a head. Chris Landeros has the call, and Tejon Pass comes off Lasix. Pass. |
Tejon Pass graduated in his second start, wiring the field over a wet-fast Santa Anita course. Justify's son hasn't replicated that effort, and he's the only one of nine foals out of the multiple graded-winning turf mare FoxySox to win on dirt. Maybe after the Derby fever subsides, Peter Miller will give Tejon Pass a chance on turf. Pass. |
|
5. Magic Grant (50-1) |
|
|
By Good Magic, Magic Grant enters off a 10th-place effort in the Southwest. The colt was the last one out of the gate and trailed the field throughout the race, beating only the badly fading Wynstock to the wire. He checked in 27 1/2 lengths behind winner Mystik Dan and 19 1/2-lengths behind runner-up Just Steel. Harry Hernandez replaces Corey Landeros for trainer Eddie Milligan Jr., who is winless in graded stakes in the last five years. I did not like Magic Grant in the Southwest, and I don't like him here. Pass. |
Magic Grant was off slowly in the Southwest and never had a chance. He did well at Remington Park, but his career-best 80 Brisnet speed rating says he's outclassed here. Pass. |
|
6. Dimatic (8-1) |
|
|
Dimatic exits off a victory in a 1 1/16-mile, maiden race on the Southwest undercard. With Joel Rosario aboard, the colt pressed the pace, tipped three wide off the far turn and into the stretch and took over easily. Dimatic did lug out abruptly in the stretch but quickly regathered momentum to finish tjree lengths clear of the runner-up. He earned a career-high 88 Equibase speed figure. The race was contested at the same distance as the Southwest, but the final time was more than two seconds slower. Prior to that, Dimatic was sixth on debut at Churchill Downs and third in his second career start at Fair Grounds. His debut race produced one next-out winner: Hall of Fame, who most recently was seventh in the Risen Star (G2). Dimatic was the only next-out winner from his second start. Tyler Gaffalione takes over from regular rider Joel Rosario for trainer Steve Asmussen. Dimatic trades Lasix for blinkers, and Asmussen is 18 percent, 41 percent in the money, with first-time blinkers. The colt has improved with each start and could take home a piece of the pie with another step forward. Exotics. |
Dimatic is an intriguing entry. His speed rating and race placing improved in each of his three starts, culminating with a maiden victory at Oaklawn over a sloppy track. But his final, antic-filled time was slow, 1:46.11 compared to the 1:43.67 of the Southwest and 1:45.16 of the Martha Washington. Gun Runner's son has one of the classiest pedigrees in the Rebel field. His full brother Dreamlike was a runner-up in last year's Pennsylvania Derby (G1) and Wood Memorial (G2). Their half-sister Backflash placed in the Sunland Park Oaks. Their unraced dam is a full sister to 2014 champion 3-year-old filly Untapable, a half to Grade 1-winning turf router Paddy El'Prado, and another full sister bore Grade 3 winner Red Route One, who was second in last year's Southwest, Rebel and Louisiana Derby. In his last race, Dimatic was comfortable on the rail, moved up around the turn, and had enough speed to ease to the outside for the final half-mile. He was fine passing horses, but once clear, the ears went up and he slowed; he bolted right, then left, and switched leads twice. Blinkers will certainly help. Exotics. |
|
7. Timberlake (6-5) |
|
|
Timberlake is making his much-anticipated 2024 debut. He was last seen finishing fourth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, eight lengths behind winner Fierceness, who most was recently third in the Holy Bull (G3). Breeders' Cup Juvenile runner-up Muth won the San Vicente (G2) next out. Timberlake has so far exhibited a lose-win-lose-win racing pattern, and since he lost his last start, the pattern suggests that he should find the winner's circle here. He owns the highest Equibase speed figure in the field, the 106 he received when winning the Champagne (G1). Cristian Torres takes over from regular jockey Florent Geroux. Trainer Brad Cox is 19 percent, 58 percent in the money, with runners entering off a two- to six-month layoff. Contender. |
The Rebel Stakes is Timberlake's 3-year-old coming out party, and he's recorded triple-digit speed figures in Grade 1 events that his rivals can only dream of. Although a victory would look good on his resume, there's no pressure on Timberlake to win the Rebel because he has 16 Derby points, and an on-the-board placing would set him up for his final Derby prep. Into Mischief's son is out of an English Group 3-placed turf router, and his extended family is filled with high-caliber stakes-winning turf routers, so the farther, the better. The Brad Cox trainee tuned up with two sharp five-furlong breezes, including one in 59.40 seconds, so a victory against this group is certainly feasible. Contender. |
|
8. Next Level (30-1) |
|
|
Next Level has taken a more unconventional route along the Kentucky Derby trail. The colt debuted in the $100,000 Futurity at Santa Anita and was fifth, beaten by 11 1/2 lengths. He was second in a $82,000 maiden event in his second start and third in the Del Mar Futurity (G1), beaten by just 4 1/2 lengths, in his third race. He stumbled badly at the start of his fourth race, the American Pharoah (G1), and ended up finishing seventh, beaten by 23 lengths. He then won a $52,000 maiden event in gate-to-wire fashion in his fifth start before closing out 2023 with a seventh in the $100,000 Gun Runner, beaten 32 1/4 lengths by Lecomte (G3) hero and Risen Star runner-up Track Phantom. Next Level made his 2024 debut in a $100,000 optional claimer where he rallied for second, beaten by a neck by the also-rallying Woodcourt. Jockey Jose Riquelme has the call for the first time. Riquelme has only a seven percent win rate in the last 30 days, but he wins for trainer Keith Desormeaux at a 20 percent clip, 53 percent in the money. Desormeaux has only a four percent win clip, 22 percent in the money, in graded stakes races over the last five years, according to Race Lens. Pass. |
As Ashley noted, Next Level has a convoluted resume, a mix of maiden, optional-claiming and stakes races. He's hit the board four times in seven starts. Yet his sole victory was against a poor herd of maidens last year at Fair Grounds, and his rivals are still hunting for the winner's circle. By no. 4 second-crop sire Vino Rosso and out of a stakes-placed daughter of Medaglia d'Oro, Next Level has the pedigree to run all day. I'm tossing his performance in the Gun Runner, where he was hustled to the lead and set quick fractions before tiring. The best-case scenario for the Keith Desormeaux trainee would be a rapid early pace, where he could settle in mid-pack and then pick off tired horses and hope to earn a check. Pass. |
|
9. Lagynos (20-1) |
|
|
Lagynos was my top selection in the Smarty Jones. With Joel Rosario aboard, the colt went straight to the lead but faltered at the top of the stretch, finishing sixth, beaten by 4 1/2 lengths. Despite finishing off the board, Lagynos equaled his career-best 89 Equibase speed figure. Keith Asmussen replaces Joel Rosario for his father Steve Asmussen. Keith has been on fire recently, winning at a 27 percent clip over the last 10 days. Father and son win together at a 16 percent clip, 44 percent in the money. I'm going to give this colt another shot. Exotics. |
Lagynos's flask ran out of oil in the stretch of the Smarty Jones after clicking off moderate early fractions. Kantharos's son, out of an unraced daughter of Speightstown, has a sprinter-miler pedigree, and 1 1/16 miles is within his range as long as the fractions are slow. An outside post doesn't do him any favors, but if Keith Asmussen can save ground, Lagynos might have a shot at hitting the board. Note that Lagynos has a win-lose cycle and lost his last race. Despite this, I think I'll pass. |
|
10. Mena (15-1) |
|
|
Mena was last seen finishing second by a neck to Northern Flame in a $100,000 optional claimer last month. He received a career-high 91 Equibase speed figure for that effort. He faced Woodcourt two starts back, losing to that one by 11 1/4 lengths over Turfway Park's Tapeta surface. Overall, Mena is 5: 2-1-0 lifetime and broke his maiden in a $30,000 maiden claimer. His only other victory came in a starter race. Mena will be making his second start for trainer Steve Hobby, who has not won a graded stakes since High Dollar Woman won the 2015 Indiana Oaks (G2). Francisco Arrieta retains the mount. Pass. |
Surprisingly, Mena was tossed into a $30,000 maiden claiming event in his second start. Not surprisingly, he was claimed and won next time out. Draw a line through his start over the Turfway Tapeta; he clearly didn't like the surface. Mena's last race is more indicative of his talent when he closed within a neck of Northern Flame. By Hard Spun out of Grade 3 winner Pangburn, Mena is a full brother to Caddo River, winner of the 2021 Smarty Jones Stakes and second in the Arkansas Derby (G1) and Oaklawn Mile (G3). Mena has changed stables like an Army brat switches bases, and his best speed ratings are in the mid-80s. Despite this, I think he could surprise. Live long shot. |
|
11. Just Steel (7-2) |
|
|
By Justify, Just Steel enters the Rebel off a distant second in the Southwest. Despite drawing post 11 (he exited post 10 because of the scratch of Maycocks Bay), Just Steel was able to break sharply enough to be up in the vanguard. He had gained second by the stretch call, but winner Mystik Dan blew past him and drew off to an eight-length win. I liked Just Steel in the Southwest, and that hasn't changed. Contender. |
The Rodney Dangerfield of the Rebel, Just Steel gets no respect despite hitting the board in six of nine starts. The Wayne Lukas trainee couldn't keep up with Chasing Freedom in the Smarty Jones or Southwest, but he grimly held on for second place by a neck in both starts. The son of Justify doesn't quit, and one of these days, things will go his way. Exotics. |
|
12. Woodcourt (20-1) |
|
|
By Ransom the Moon, Woodcourt is a winner on dirt, turf and Tapeta. He has been inconsistent, though, cobbling together a record of 9: 4-0-1. But he has gone 2-for-2 since being claimed from trainer Brendan Walsh's barn. Woodcourt is now with Cipriano Contreras, who is just 5 percent, 30 percent in the money, in graded stakes over the last five years. Woodcourt's speed figures are all fair to middling. Emmanuel Esquivel retains the mount. Pass. |
Woodcourt is hit-or-miss against optional claimers. His best performance was in his last start, where he bested Next Level and Tejon Pass. Although Woodcourt earned a 93 late-pace figure, the second-highest in the field, his overall speed ratings need to jump 10 points to be competitive. Pass. |
|
13. Time for Truth (15-1) |
|
|
Time for Truth is the new shooter in the bunch. Trained by Ron Moquett, Time for Truth debuted on New Year's Eve in a six-furlong maiden event at Oaklawn. The colt received a 102 Equibase speed figure. The runner-up from that race was a next-out winner and one other rival of 11 hit the board in their next start. Time for Truth made his next start in the six-furlong Ozark Stakes, finishing second, beaten by 2 1/2 lengths by multiple stakes winner Valentine Candy. He earned a 95 Equibase speed figure for that effort. That race was Feb. 10, making for a two-week turnaround for the colt, something we don't typically see from Moquett. In the last five years, Moquett has had a success rate of 15 percent, 46 percent in the money, with runners off a one- to 14-day turnaround. He's also just 6 percent, 42 percent in the money, in graded stakes during that same period. Furthermore, Moquett is winless in 23 starts in stakes in the last year. Moquett is also only 9 percent, 34 percent in the money, with sprint-to-route runners. Regular rider Rafael Bejarano retains the mount. There's a good bit of more experienced speed in here, and drawing the furthest outside post is a disadvantage. Pass. |
Time for Truth graduated in a sharp 1:10.52, with a final furlong of 12.62. I like how Time for Truth turned back a challenge from a more experienced horse while racing on the rail in his debut. He gave up experience to the entire Ozark Stakes field, including the sharp multiple stakes-winning sprinter Valentine Candy, so that second-place finish was much better than it looks on paper. Time for Truth was pushed to get the early lead and was pressed the entire way, never getting a breather, yet still put forth legitimate fractions, with a final furlong in 12.67 seconds, comparable to his first start. By no. 3 second-crop sire Omaha Beach, who won the second division of the 2019 Rebel, incidentally, in his first start against winners, Time for Truth is out of the winning Lookin at Lucky mare Shape Shifter, so two turns shouldn't be a problem. According to Race Lens, Omaha Beach offspring are 6: 1-1-2 in their first start at 1 1/16 miles. Ron Moquett gave Time for Truth a series of steady four-furlong maintenance breezes in the 49- to 50-second range. I'm not convinced that Time for Truth needs the lead, and I don't like that he runs with his head up, but he has heart and could surprise. Exotics.
|
Final thoughts
Ashley: I think we'll be looking at a quicker pace
scenario than we saw in the previous Oaklawn preps. Carbone, Next Level,
Mena, Just Steel and Time for Truth all have shown early speed in previous
starts. But I think it's going to come down to a battle between Carbone
on the rail and Time for Truth in the far outside post for the honor of setting
the pace.
Overall, this is a soft field. I have completely passed on eight of the 13 contenders. From a class standpoint, Timberlake is the obvious choice. He is the only graded-stakes winner in the field and owns the best speed figures. But Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Fierceness was flat in his 2024 debut, and it stands to reason that Timberlake also might not be prepared to show his best effort in his first start of the season.
Just Steel has played the bridesmaid in both of Oaklawn's previous Kentucky Derby preps. Neither colt who beat him is in this field, making me think that this could be his time to shine. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas's best days appear to be behind him, but you just can't count him out. I worry that Just Steel could get cooked on the front end with a hot pace, but he's run well without setting the pace in his last three starts. So, I'm going to take him on top with Timberlake and some longer shots underneath.
Laurie: In the last dozen years, only two Rebel heroes finished out of the money in their prep, and eight were exiting a stakes. Only two used the Southwest as a prep, and both won the Rebel in their next start. American Pharoah is the only winner since 2012 to win the Rebel in their first start off a layoff.
Four pacesetters won, all California speed and all but one conditioned by Bob Baffert. The rest were pace pressers or those settled in mid-pack two or more lengths off the lead.
Only two of the last dozen favorites won, and four placed second. The last successful favorite was Nadal in 2020. Additionally, only two Rebel winners lost ground in their final prep.
Outside posts (8+) are at a disadvantage. Only Win Willy, post 9 in 2009, and Curlin, post 8 in 2007 were successful since 2000.
As Ashley noted, there's plenty of speed in the Rebel. Carbone and Northern Flame set almost identical internal fractions in their last start. Plus, Northern Flame and Next Level win only on the lead, and Tejon Pass has speed if they use it.
Timberlake is the class, and I like that he's shown speed in the mornings. I don't think he needs to be 100 percent against this field. Two from the Breeders' Cup Juvenile won their 3-year-old debuts, and two hit the board, so I'm confident that Timberlake can sing Bye Bye Bye to this field. Yeah, I picked the favorite on top, and sometimes, ya just gotta go with it.
Selections
|
Ashley |
Laurie |
|
11. Just Steel (7-2) |
7. Timberlake (6-5) |
|
7. Timberlake (6-5) |
11. Just Steel (7-2) |
|
6. Dimatic (8-1) |
6. Dimatic (8-1) |
|
1. Carbone (15-1) |
10. Mena (15-1) |