Head to Head: See 2 sides of Kentucky Derby prep in NOLA

Ashley

Laurie

1. Next Level (30-1)

Scratched.

Scratched.

2. Nash (5-2)

By Medaglia d’Oro, Nash was 2nd on debut for trainer Brad Cox in a $100,000 maiden event at Keeneland. He chased the winner throughout the 6-furlong sprint, checking in 5 1/4 lengths behind that foe while also being well clear for 2nd. That race produced three next-out winners, including Nash, along with several that hit the board next out and one that eventually became a winner. Nash stretched out to 1 1/16-mile for his second race, a $120,000 maiden event at Churchill Downs. With Florent Geroux aboard, Nash went straight to the lead and romped home a 10 1/4-length winner. Only one from that field has won in subsequent starts. The Godolphin homebred posted a 101 Equibase speed figure for the effort, the best overall number in the field, and the best number for the Lecomte distance and surface. Most recently, Nash was third in the local $100,000 Gun Runner Stakes, finishing three lengths behind winner Track Phantom as the odds-on favorite. Geroux retains the mount for Cox. Contender.

Nash is just getting started. He beat a nice maiden group in his second start and was flattered when the third-place finisher returned at Gulfstream recently to win by 4 1/2 lengths. The Brad Cox trainee had the typical maiden regression in the Gun Runner. Nash tracked Next Level and Track Phantom from between horses early and made a strong move around the bend. However, when Florent Geroux hit him just past the quarter pole, Nash appeared startled, his head came up, and he briefly lost momentum. Nash flattened out after that and didn’t switch leads until a half-furlong from home, three lengths behind Track Phantom.

Medaglia d’Oro’s son is a half to Grade 2-placed Sara Street, and a half-sister bore Grade 2-placed Kalik and Grade 3-placed Bringer of Rain. His dam Sara Louise, a daughter of Malibu Moon, is a multiple-graded winning miler, and her half-sister, Grade 3 heroine Just Louise, bore multiple-graded winner Forbidden Kingdom.  

Nash’s Brisnet speed rating regressed by six points in the Gun Runner, but the well-bred colt has been breezing well and should regroup. Contender.

3. Tizzy Indy (30-1)

By Take Charge Indy, Tizzy Indy has just one victory in 6 starts. A homebred for Calumet Farm, Tizzy Indy was nowhere close to the winner in his first three starts, losing by 28 1/2 lengths at Ellis Park, 11 1/2 lengths at Colonial, and 12 lengths at Indianapolis. Trainer Keith Desormeaux shipped the colt to Churchill for his fourth start and dropped him into claiming company; the result was a gate-to-wire victory, the only time Tizzy Indy has ever utilized that running style. Tizzy Indy comes in off two on-the-board finishes in starter company. He will be ridden by James Graham for the first time in his career and comes off Lasix. Pass.

Tizzy Indy’s sole victory in six starts was against $20,000 maiden claimers at Churchill. Since then, he’s placed second and third, respectively, with his speed ratings dropping in each start.

The Keith Desormeaux trainee had an excuse in his second-to-last start when the rider lost the left rein around the far turn. Despite this, Tizzy Indy still closed for second place. He beat next-out winner Let’s Go Mark, who recently placed second in the Turfway Preview.

Take Charge Indy’s son is out of an unraced Tiznow mare. Class in Tizzy Indy’s female family skips to the third generation, and there’s plenty there: multiple Grade 1 heroine Raging Fever, her full brothers, Grade 2 winner Stormin Fever and stakes winner Roaring Fever, and third dam, Grade 3 placed Pennant Fever.

James Graham picks up the mount and, according to Race Lens, is winning routes at a 30 percent clip this meet. Here’s an interesting stat. Keith Desormeaux is 25 percent win, 50 percent in the money with the turf-to-dirt route angle when his charges were in the money in their last start. Live long shot.

4. Can Group (6-1)

Can Group began his career on the dirt, finishing third in his first two starts, including a 15 1/2-length drubbing by eventual Champagne (G1) winner Timberlake. Casse switched the son of Good Samaritan to the lawn, resulting in two straight wins, including a nose victory in the Bourbon Stakes (G2). He was most recently fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1), missing all the glory by just 2-lengths. Now he returns to the dirt, an angle that pays with a win at a 17 percent clip (48 percent in the money) for Casse. While Can Group’s debut race hasn’t produced anything of note, the two colts he lost to in his second race were both next-out graded-stakes winners. Pass.

Can Group didn’t show much on dirt in his first two starts, so logically, Mark Casse switched him to turf, where Can Group found his calling. So, it’s a head-scratcher that the Grade 2 winner would be switched back to dirt unless somebody has a mild case of Derby fever or there aren’t any suitable turf races.

Can Group is by ninth-ranked second-crop sire Good Samaritan. The colt is a half to Grade 3 heroine Flat Out Speed and stakes-placed Bonnieview. They’re out of the unraced Street Sense mare, Blue Gallina.

Although Casse captured the 2019 and 2020 Lecomte Stakes, Good Samaritan’s offspring are better on turf than dirt, so I’ll take a pass.

5. Ethan Energy (4-1)

By Uncle Mo, Ethan Energy was 6th on debut, finishing 9 lengths behind the winner of the 6 1/2-furlong, $100,000 Keeneland maiden event. He was off slow but improved his position from last to mid-field by the time they hit the wire. Winner Agoo is now dual stakes-placed; 5th-place finisher Legalize won the $100,000 Sugar Bowl over Agoo; and another foe was a next-out winner. Cox shipped Ethan Energy to Fair Grounds for the colt’s second start. Stretching out to 1 1/16-mile, the Stonestreet homebred ran off to a 5 1/4-length victory, improving his Equibase speed figure from a 71 to a 94. Only time will tell how that race stacks up as only one colt from that field has made a subsequent start. Luis Saez replaces regular jockey Florent Geroux, who sticks with Nash, and Ethan Energy comes off Lasix for this start. Exotics.

In his second start, Ethan Energy settled in mid-pack early, then circled the field like they were tied to the rail. He floated under the wire 5 1/4 lengths in front, with Florent Geroux simply guiding him. The Brad Cox trainee recorded an 89 speed rating, and his 94 late pace figure is the second-highest in the field.

Uncle Mo’s son is a half to multiple graded winning sprinter, Royal Charlotte. Class skips to the third generation of his distaff line, where there’s some state-bred blacktype.

According to Race Lens, Brad Cox has 5 winners from 29 starters over the last five years with the last-out maiden to stakes angle. Exotics.

6. Lat Long (8-1)

By Liam’s Map, Lat Long has been a trifecta machine for trainer Kenny McPeek, though he did not find the winner’s circle until his fifth and most recent start. The colt was 3rd behind eventual Remsen (G2) winner Dornoch in his second start and second to Track Phantom in his fourth start. He consistently posts Equibase speed figures in the mid-to-upper 80s. Julien Leparoux was aboard for Lat Long’s only victory, a race in which he had the lead by the second call for the first time in his career. However, regular jockey Brian Hernandez, Jr. hops back aboard for the Lecomte. I feel like this is the type of race that this colt could get a piece of. Exotics.

As Ashley noted, Lat Long is consistently in the money. However, he’s struggled to find a maiden field he could beat. That changed in his last start at Oaklawn Park when he reverted to his previous pace-pressing running style and was rewarded with a 2 1/4-length victory. The Ken McPeek trainee was flattered when the runner-up returned a winner.

Liam’s Map’s son is the second foal out of the Street Cry mare, Amen Sista. She’s a three-quarter sister to multiple graded winner, Southdale, plus the producer, Savvy Sassy, dam of graded stakes placed veteran Bourbon Bay. Another three-quarter sister, S S Pinaforte, bore multiple Grade 3 winner Plainsman and Oaklahoma Derby runner-up, Liam, who is by Liam’s Map.

If Lat Long stays true to form, he’ll pick up a check. Exotics.

7. Track Phantom (9-5)

By Quality Road, Track Phantom hit the board in his first two starts at Churchill Downs, both one-mile affairs, utilizing early speed but ultimately getting run down before the wire. Trained by Steve Asmussen, Track Phantom blossomed when stretching to two turns, reeling off a victory in a 1 1/16-mile maiden event at Churchill and then emphasizing that win with a victory in the Gun Runner Stakes here at Fair Grounds, earning a 100 Equibase speed figure in the process. Track Phantom has defeated both Lat Long and Nash in previous starts. Cristian Torres is the colt’s regular jockey, though Joel Rosario, who has the call in the Lecomte, rode the colt in his maiden-breaking win at Churchill Downs. Undefeated at the Lecomte distance of 1 1/16-mile, Track Phantom is the one to beat. Contender.

Track Phantom has improved in each start, culminating with a 1 1/4 length victory in the Gun Runner Stakes, beating Nash. Previously, Track Phantom ghosted Lat Long in a maiden event.

Track Phantom was under a hold in the Gunrunner Stakes while glued to the Next Level’s flank. Track Phantom inherited the lead rounding the far turn as Next Level quickly backed up, and the Steve Asmussen trainee repelled a mild challenge from Sneed.

Quality Road’s son is the second foal out of Grade 2 winning sprinter Miss Sunset. The extended distaff line includes the multi-millionaire and multiple-graded veteran Prayer for Relief.

A $500,000 Keeneland yearling, Track Phantom has one of the highest speed ratings in the Lecomte. Contender.

8. Awesome Road (8-1)

Scratched.

Scratched.