Head to Head: Handicapping Holy Bull, prep for Ky. Derby

Ashley

Laurie

1.  Hades

Local runner Hades is undefeated in two starts for trainer Joseph Orseno. In his debut, a 5 1/2-furlong maiden optional claimer at Gulfstream, Hades was bumped at the start and raced at the rear of the field but only about 3 1/2 lengths off the leader. He spun nearly widest of all off the far turn and stormed down the center of the track to get up by a half-length at the wire. The gelding had a much better start in his second race, breaking sharply and dueling through the early stages of the seven-furlong, state-bred allowance race. He put the field away at the top of the stretch, kicking away to an eight-length romp. His Equibase speed figure improved from a 76 in his debut to a 97 last out. Regular jockey Paco Lopez retains the mount. Trainer Orseno is only 11 percent, 33 percent in the money, in graded stakes in   the last five years, according to Race Lens, but Hades has looked good so far. Exotics.

A winner of both starts by a combined 8 1/2 lengths, Hades was flattered by a next-out winner returning from both races. The Joseph Orseno trainee's Brisnet speed rating jumped 18 points between races, and he earned a 101 late-pace figure, the second highest behind Fierceness. This Florida-bred gelding by Awesome Slew is half to Astoria Stakes heroine Devious Dame. Their unraced Quality Road dam is half to multiple restricted turf router Courtesan. There's plenty of class in Hades' third generation, including Grade 1 winners Discreet Cat, Discreetly Mine and Awesome Maria. Hades showed versatility in both starts, a last-to-first move, whipping seven wide around the far turn in his debut, then dueling on the lead while on the rail in his next start against state-bred maidens. Final fractions were strong, with a 6.69-second half-furlong in his debut and a 12.14 in his second start. Hades recorded a pre-race five-furlong move in 1:00.87 and should be on his toes. The only drawback is the possibility of regressing after the 18-point speed-rating jump. Exotics.

2.  Inveigled

Inveigled enters the Holy Bull off a fourth-place finish in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes on New Year's Day, his only off-the-board placing. He was beaten by only 1 1/2 lengths for it all, however. Otello was the winner that day, and Sea Streak, who Inveigled had soundly beaten in their previous start, an optional claimer, was third. The gelding also has his maiden win, a runner-up finish in the $100,000 James F. Lewis III Stakes at Laurel (beaten by only a neck), and a third-place finish in his debut at Pimlico. Irad Ortiz Jr., who has been aboard for all of Inveigled's Gulfstream starts, retains the mount for trainer Jane Cibelli. According to Race Lens, Cibelli has won only one graded stakes, the 2009 Philip H. Iselin (G3), and has had only one graded starter in the last five years. Pass.

Indiana-bred Inveigled developed a win-lose cycle over five starts, with two wins, a second and a third. In the Mucho Macho Man Stakes, the Jane Cibelli trainee was stuck in rush-hour traffic until late. He had to go wide around the turn but willingly passed horses. Unfortunately, he ran out of real estate and had to settle for a close fourth place behind Otello and Sea Streak. By no. 8 first-crop sire Enticed, Inveigled is the first foal out of an unraced Quality Road mare. His dam is half to a stakes-winning turf sprinter-miler, and his second dam, Candy Kitty, won a pair of stakes over the Gulfstream turf. Inveigled's speed ratings are middling, and he must improve to beat these. But Irad Ortiz Jr. has faith in the colt and stays aboard. Exotics.

3.  Otello

Otello is undefeated in two starts for trainer Christophe Clement. The chestnut colt debuted in a one-mile maiden event at Aqueduct, rallying to get up by a neck. Last out, he used that same rallying style to win the one-mile Mucho Macho Man Stakes by a half-length over Sea Streak in third, Hades in Fourth and No More Time in fifth. I find it concerning, however, that Otello's Equibase speed figure dropped from an 86 in his debut to a 75 last out. Luis Saez, who was aboard in the Mucho Macho Man, retains the mount. Despite the drop in speed figures, the colt faces a similar group here and should run well. Contender.

Otello prevailed in two photo finishes, and the Christophe Clement trainee should love the extra distance in the Holy Bull Stakes. He made a last-to-first move through traffic and rolled down the stretch in the Holy Bull, passing the battling pacesetters at the last moment. Otello got his final furlong in an average 13.28. Curlin's son is the third foal and second winner out the multiple-graded winning turf mare Isabella Sings. The dam is half to the turf stakes winner Alaura Michele and the dirt sprinter Tobacco Road. Typical of Clement's charges, Otello has been logging four- and five-furlong works in the morning. He recorded two solo five-furlong bullets at Payson Park and noticeably accelerated through the stretch. Otello's speed ratings are decent, and he should improve in his second start off the layoff. Contender.

4.  Dancing Groom

Dancing Groom is 1-for-4 lifetime. The colt was sixth on debut for trainer Antonio Sano in a six-furlong, $136,500 maiden event at Saratoga, languishing at the back of the field and giving no response. With Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard for his second start, Dancing Groom pressed the pace from second, took over in the stretch, and drove clear to win the one-mile, off-the-turf race by five lengths. In his next two starts, Dancing Groom was third in the Champagne (G1), beaten by 10 1/2 lengths, and sixth in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), beaten by 15 3/4 lengths. Junior Alvarado has the call for the colt's 2024 bow and will be riding the colt for the first time. Sano adds blinkers for the first time, an angle that produces 6 percent winners, 31 percent in the money. Pass.

Dancing Groom hasn't lived up to the potential he flashed in his second start, a blow-out five-length victory. But that was a really bad group, and none have returned to win. By no. 3 first-crop sire Vino Rosso, Dancing Groom is the first black-type earner out of the unplaced Bernardini mare Snow Dancer. The second dam is a multiple stakes-winning miler. Dancing Groom is bred to be a later-maturing distance runner, so maybe he'll improve down the road. I don't expect to see him tap dancing down the stretch in the Holy Bull. Pass.

5.  No More Time

No More Time is another local runner making all three of his career starts at Gulfstream. He's gone 3: 1-1-0 for trainer Jose Francisco D'Angelo, with his only off-the-board finish coming when he was fifth in the Mucho Macho Man against several others in this field. The colt earned a 69 Equibase speed figure in both his debut, in which he was second, and in the Mucho Macho Man. He posted a career-best 87 when breaking his maiden. In the Mucho Macho Man, No More Time hopped at the start and was rank for jockey Jose Ortiz, who retains the mount for the Holy Bull. If Ortiz can get the colt out of the gate smoothly and settled, he could improve on his Mucho Macho Man performance. According to Race Lens, D'Angelo is winless, 50 percent in the money, in graded stakes over the last five years. Exotics.

No More Time regressed in the Mucho Macho Man after graduating in his second start. To his credit, his fifth-place finish was marred by being fractious in the gate and rearing at the start, costing him a few lengths. The Jose D'Angelo trainee made up five lengths to challenge three wide around the far turn but ran out of oats a furlong from home. Not This Time's son is out of the Spightestown mare Baroness Juliette. There's little black type in the first two generations of the distaff line, but Grade 1 winners Siphonic and Laragh are part of the extended family. No More Time's speed ratings range from 83 to 92. As Ashley noted, he can hit the board with improvement if Jose Ortiz can get him to relax. Exotics.

6.  Domestic Product

Domestic Product has one win in three starts for trainer Chad Brown. The colt was fifth on debut, beaten by 12 3/4 lengths, a race that included eventual Grade 1 winner Locked and stakes winner Be You. Domestic Product won his next start, a 1 1/8-mile maiden event at the Belmont at Aqueduct meet, but none from that field have returned winners. Last out, the colt was seventh, beaten by 16 1/4 lengths, in the Remsen (G2). Brown is changing things up for the Holy Bull. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione will be aboard Domestic Product for the first time, and the colt will also race with blinkers off, an angle in which Brown is successful at a 33 percent clip, 67 percent in the money). Pass.

After graduating with a front-running score, Domestic Product was asked to rate in the Remsen Stakes. That experiment didn't go so well, as he checked in a lackluster seventh, 16 lengths behind Dornoch and Sierra Leone. By no. 2-ranked third-crop sire Practical Joke, Domestic Product is the second foal out of the unraced Paynter mare Goods and Services. She's a half to the stakes-winning turf sprinter Kenda. As Ashley noted, Chad Brown takes the blinkers off Domestic Product, which signals a likely return to a pacesetting style. The colt has an average series of four-furlong breezes at Payson Park. Pass.

7.  Fierceness

Fierceness is your Breeders' Cup Juvenile hero and champion 2-year-old male. The champ debuted a winner for Todd Pletcher, winning a six-furlong, maiden event at Saratoga by 11 1/4 lengths. He was sent off as the heavy favorite in the Champagne (G1) but turned in a poor performance, lunging at the start and then tiring to finish seventh, beaten by 20 1/4 lengths. That field included Dancing Groom, who was third. Because of his poor Champagne showing, Fierceness was overlooked in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. He returned to his dominant form that day, crossing the wire 6 1/4 lengths in front of Muth at odds of 17-1. He received a field- and career-best 110 Equibase speed figure for that effort. He also earned a triple-digit figure in his debut. On paper, Fierceness towers over this field, and Pletcher wins at a 21 percent clip, 52 percent in the money, with runners coming off a two- to six-month layoff. John Velazquez, who was aboard at the Breeders' Cup, retains the mount. Top choice.

So what will Fierceness do as an encore to his 6 1/2-length Breeders' Cup Juvenile triumph? He's been keeping company in the mornings with Locked, third in the Juvenile, and maiden winner Born Noble, who is entered in an allowance race on the Holy Bull undercard. On Jan. 13, Fierceness paired with Locked for a five-furlong breeze. Locked stayed a measured half-length behind, and was all out after the wire, the rider whipping and driving, while the rider on Fierceness, standing in the irons, never extended the colt. Fierceness had a second-to-last five-furlong bullet work in 59.48 seconds with Born Noble, which was a typical Pletcher-style work, with both horses running in tandem. But Fierceness pulled slightly ahead on the gallop out while Born Noble had the whip waved at him to keep up. The son of no. 5 second-crop sire City of Light is out of a full sister to Wood Memorial (G1) hero Outwork, and second dam Nonna Mia is Grade 1-placed. Fierceness owns two triple-digit speed ratings and hit a 109 late-pace figure in his last start. Last year, Pletcher conditioned Forte to victory in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) in his first start after winning the Juvenile. Win contender.

8.  Sea Streak

Sea Streak debuted in the six-furlong Smoke Glacken Stakes at Monmouth. He was bumped hard at the start but recovered to be part of the pace and eventually had to settle for second, beaten by two lengths by Book 'em Danno. He found the winner's circle in his second start, a six-furlong maiden event at the Belmont at Aqueduct meet. Since then, he's been second to Inveigled in an optional claimer and most recently was third, beaten by only 3/4 length, in the Mucho Macho Man. According to Race Lens, trainer Eddie Owens Jr. is winless, 30 percent in the money, in graded stakes over the last five years. Luca Panici, who was aboard in the Mucho Macho Man, retains the mount. Exotics.

In his first start off the layoff, Sea Streak looked like he was running out of oats after a half-mile, but he re-rallied to finish second, beating the staggering third- and fourth-place finishers. But he was no match for Inveigled. The Eddie Owens Jr. trainee improved in the Mucho Macho Man, fighting the entire way; Otello passed to win by 3/4 length. Sea Streak's sire, Sea Wizard, by Uncle Mo, hit the board in both of his starts. He's done surprisingly well standing at stud in New Jersey, with a couple of stakes winners and a stakes-placed runner from 14 starters. Sea Streak is a half to a pair of stakes-winning sprinter-milers and a half-sister bore multiple graded placed Great Navigator, by Sea Wizard. I'm not convinced Sea Streak wants to go farther than a mile, but he'll keep someone busy on the front end and could wind up in the money. Exotics.

         Ashley

      Laurie

7. Fierceness

3. Otello

3. Otello

7. Fierceness

1. Hades

2. Inveigled

5. No More Time

1. Hades