Head to Head: Handicapping the 2023 Spinaway Stakes

LAURIE

ASHLEY

1. Miz Sense (15-1)

Miz Sense was sensibly professional in her one-mile debut. She broke straight from the far outside, tracked the pace near the back of the pack, weaved her way through rivals, cut the corner on the far turn and then glided away by 4 1/4 lengths. The Todd Pletcher trainee finished her last furlong in an acceptable 12.78 seconds, and she received an 84 Brisnet Speed Rating, with a 103 late pace figure, the highest in the Spinaway field. Half of Miz Sense’s rivals returned, and none hit the board in their next start, so the quality of competition is questionable. Street Sense’s daughter is out of an unraced full sister to 2012 juvenile champ Shanghai Bobby. Miz Sense’s half-sister Canoodling is a multiple-graded-winning turf miler. Miz Sense posted two moderate four-furlong breezes in preparation for the Spinaway. Contender.

Miz Sense debuted a winner for Todd Pletcher at the beginning of the meet, besting a maiden event by 4 1/4 lengths as the favorite. The fillies from that field who have made a subsequent start failed to even hit the board. She earned an 84 Equibase speed figure, a number close to those put up by the favorites in this field. Manny Franco replaces Irad Ortiz Jr. Pass.

2.  Lady Moscato (20-1)

Still a maiden, Lady Moscato has played the bridesmaid in all three outings. Although her speed ratings have risen in each start, Quality Road’s daughter expends her energy early and is leg-weary in the stretch while losing ground. The D. Wayne Lukas trainee looked like she might get the job done in her last start, but she drifted out from other horses. Lady Moscato’s full sister is Grade 1 winner Salty, who also placed in the CCA Oaks (G1) and Alabama (G1), so perhaps her talent will show as she matures. Pass.

As the bridesmaid and never the bride, Lady Moscato has finished second in all three career starts, including a six-length loss to Sugar Hi two starts back. The filly’s debut race winner Streaming Now was most recently third in the Adirondack (G3). That race also produced two next-out winners and another two who won two starts later. Lady Moscato’s second start produced one next-out winner, and two fillies from Lady Moscato’s most recent race hit the board next out. While she has faced decent competition, Lady Moscato herself doesn’t have the speed figures that some of these other fillies have, her best being back-to-back 71s in her last two starts. John Velazquez hops aboard for the first time for D. Wayne Lukas. I don’t like her for the win, but Lady Moscato likes to finish second. Underneath long shot.

3. Sugar Hi (6-1)

Sugar Hi screamed to a six-length victory in her debut, besting Lady Moscato. Three of six rivals won or placed in their next start. This Bill Mott trainee bounced back with a three-furlong bullet and in her second to last breeze, she clocked five furlongs in 1:00 flat. Pay attention when Bill Mott gives his charges quick works, especially the babies. Twirling Candy’s daughter is a member of the family of 2006 champion juvenile filly Dreaming of Anna and multiple graded winners Justenuffhumor and Lewis Michael. Her third dam is a half-sister to Champion and top turf sire Kitten’s Joy. Contender.

Sugar Hi easily won her debut for Bill Mott, skipping away to a six-length victory over Lady Moscato in a maiden event. This race produced next-out winner Honey Dijon, as well as Classy Mischief, who was fourth, beaten by two lengths, in the $204K Sorority Stakes at Monmouth. Sugar Hi earned an 86 Equibase speed figure for her win here at Saratoga. Junior Alvarado retains the mount for Mott, who is 24 percent, 54 percent in the money, with runners who won their previous start. Contender.

4. Closing Act (20-1)

After winning the Astoria Stakes with a pace-pressing trip, Closing Act was taken off the pace in the   Schuylerville (G3). The tactic backfired, as she was wide and finished a one-paced third, 6 3/4 lengths behind Becky’s Joker. Although the Steve Asmussen trainee fired a bullet five furlongs in 1:00.80, her overall speed ratings are low, and she’ll have to improve to be competitive in the Spinaway. Pass.

Closing Act was undefeated in two starts, including a stakes win, heading into the Schuylerville (G3), and she was my top choice that day. The best she could do was third against Becky’s Joker. Fourth-place finisher Wine On Tap finished second in the Sorority Stakes, and fifth-place finisher Carmelina won the Keswick Stakes next out. Overall, the Munnings filly has been posting slower morning works since the Schuylerville than before it, but she did drill a bullet five-furlong move on Aug. 22. Jose Lezcano replaces Tyler Gaffalione, who is riding at Kentucky Downs this weekend, for trainer Steve Asmussen. Pass.

5. Becky's Joker (12-1)

Becky’s Joker made her winning debut in the Schuylerville stakes but finished a puzzling seventh in the Adirondack (G3), 15 lengths behind Brightwork. The Gary Contessa trainee broke with the field in the Adirondack but quickly fell back while running with her head high and being scrubbed on by Javier Castellano. Practical Joke’s daughter is out of an unraced half-sister to multiple graded-winning sprinter Vertical Oak, so there’s quality in her pedigree. I’m willing to give her another shot since fillies often regress in their second start. Exotics.

I liked Becky’s Joker at the beginning of the meet when she debuted in the Schuylerville, and she delivered with a victory. She then was nowhere to be found four weeks later in the Adirondack (G3). But Javier Castellano gave her a completely different ride, keeping her at the back of the field and asking her to close rather than putting her in a pace-pressing position like in the Schuylerville. I’m willing to give the daughter of Practical Joke another shot. Exotics.

6. Alys Beach (15-1)

Alys Beach needed every step of 6 1/2 furlongs to graduate by a head at first asking. The Tom Amoss trainee proved close quarters didn’t bother her when she was blocked in the lane. Alys Beach made a late dive toward the rail, squeezed through to pass the pacesetter and then stubbornly held off a late challenge from a next-out winner. By first-crop sire Omaha Beach, Alys Beach’s female family includes Grade 1-winning sprinter Capo Bastone and Grade 3-winning juvenile Hidden Connection. Alys Beach’s final time for 6 1/2 furlongs was a slow 1:18.58, but she recorded a post-race bullet four furlongs in 48.00. With an average 84 speed rating, she’ll need to improve to have a say. Pass.

Alys Beach was a determined debut winner for Tom Amoss in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden event at Saratoga on July 30. The Omaha Beach filly settled just behind the pacesetters, took the inside route in the stretch and prevailed by a head. Runner-up Life Talk was a next-out winner while taking a class drop, and fourth-place finisher Waskesiu was second next out. Alys Beach received an 81 Equibase speed figure for her win. Dylan Davis replaces Tyler Gaffalione. Davis has won at just a 6 percent clip, 24 percent in the money, over the last 10 days. Pass.

7. Wonder Ride (12-1)

Wonder Ride received a good education in her debut and took it all in stride. She broke sharply despite bobbling at the break and contested the early lead. Julien Leparoux backed her off the pace for a breather after a 46.09 half-mile. About a furlong from the finish, Wonder Ride found a hole, but it quickly closed when a rival ducked in. She steadied slightly, then pulled between horses. Instead of giving in to challenges on either side, the pretty gray filly surged forward by 3/4 length and put her ears up at the wire. Gun Runner’s daughter is out of the graded-stakes winner Wonderment. Wonder Ride’s speed rating was an average 83. However, I liked how she overcame difficulty and had something left at the end, which makes her a live long shot in my book.

Wonder Ride debuted a winner for Kenny McPeek in a seven-furlong, maiden event at Saratoga on Aug. 13. The daughter of Gun Runner bobbled at the break but recovered to take up the third running position to the inside. She was wide into the stretch and appeared to get shut off while trying to split rivals, being forced to go to the outside of that duo instead. Once she had clear running room, she drove past her rivals to win by a half-length with an 81 Equibase speed figure. So far, none from this field have returned winners, but runner-up Stellamaris was once again second in her subsequent start. Julien Leparoux retains the mount for McPeek, but Leparoux has been on a cold streak recently. He’s 0-for-13, 8 percent in the money, in the last 10 days and 1-for-29, 24 percent in the money, over the last 30 days. I really want to like this pretty gray Gun Runner filly, but I’ll pass.  

8. Ways and Means (7-5)

In her debut, Ways and Means had to steady in a traffic jam and was shuffled back early. That didn’t deter Practical Joke’s daughter, as she circled five wide and passed her rivals like they were tied to the rail. Flavian Pratt never moved a muscle while Ways and Means opened up by a dozen lengths. The Chad Brown trainee clocked six furlongs in 1:10.51, with a swift 12.16 final furlong. Ways and Means is a 3/4 sister to Highly Motivated, a multiple-graded winner who set new track records in the 2020 Nyquist Stakes for 6 1/2 furlongs and 1 1/8 miles in the Monmouth Cup (G3). Ways and Means earned a 98 speed rating with a 102 late pace figure. Contender.

Ways and Means turned in a dazzling debut performance for trainer Chad Brown. Another daughter of Practical Joke, the filly was bumped hard at the break of the six-furlong maiden race and encountered early traffic. She was then widest of all turning for home, but that made little difference as the heavy favorite opened up on the field all on her own while Flavien Prat imitated a statue. She received a field-best 90 Equibase speed figure. It’s too early to tell who she might have beaten as none in the field have made a subsequent start. However, considering that she won by 12 3/4 lengths with no urging, it’s safe to say that on paper, she’s the filly to beat. Contender.

9. Brightwork (5-2)

Could Brightwork be the next 2-year-old star? She’s undefeated in a trio of starts, including a dominating five-length win in the Adirondack (G3). That race included the P. G. Johnson heroine Magic Cross, Sorority Stakes winner Princess Indy and Becky’s Joker. Outwork’s daughter hails from a classy female family. Her half-sister is a stakes-placed turf sprinter, and their unraced dam is a full sister to the dam of Grade 1 hero Girvin and graded winners Cocked and Loaded, Midnight Bourbon and Pirates Punch. Contender.

Brightwork enters undefeated in three career starts, including wins in the Debutante at Churchill at Ellis Park and the Adirondack (G3) at Saratoga, where she earned a career-best 86 Equibase speed figure. Brightwork’s debut race produced dual stakes winner, including the Queen Mary (Gr. 2) at Royal Ascot, Crimson Advocate. Adirondack fourth-place finisher Magic Cross won the off-the-turf P. G. Johnson next out, and fifth-place finisher Princess Indy won the Sorority Stakes next out. The daughter of Outwork had three different jockeys in her first three starts, but Irad Ortiz Jr., who was up in the Adirondack, retains the mount for trainer John A. Ortiz. Trainer Ortiz is 4-for-47 in graded stakes over the last five years, and Brightwork’s Adirondack triumph was his first since Mr Dumas won the Commonwealth (G3) in November 2019. Brightwork has proven herself a contender.

10. Lemorian (15-1)

Lemorian put the squeeze on an overmatched Horseshoe Indianapolis field by 4 1/2 lengths. Now she’s shipping in, stretching out and moving up in class. Typically, lightly raced 2-year-olds don’t perform to expectations when trying three new things at the same time. Coal Front’s daughter doesn’t have much black type in the first two generations of her female family. However, Grade 1 heroine Society and Grade 3 winner Pleasant Prince are part of her extended family. Pass.

Lemorian was a gate-to-wire debut winner in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden event at Horseshoe Indianapolis. With Fernando De La Cruz up for trainer Michelle Elliott, the Coal Front filly earned a 77 Equibase speed figure while winning by 4 1/2 lengths. Fifth-place finisher Balladry was a next-out winner. This field is way deeper than anything she would have seen in the Midwest. Elliott has had no graded starters in the last five years and only one graded-stakes-placed horse in her career. Pass.