Head to Head: Handicapping the 2023 Saratoga Special

Ashley

Laurie

1.  Lasso (15-1)

Lasso debuted a winner over a sloppy Gulfstream track, easily winning a five-furlong, $65K maiden event by 3 1/2 lengths. The Brethren colt was away sharply but was shuffled back to second last as they raced down the backstretch. Turning for home, Edgard Zayas swung him to the outside, and they quickly motored past their competition to win going away. Third-place finisher Cinco Harley won next out when dropping into state-bred company. The 83 Equibase speed figure he earned is one of the best numbers in the field. According to Race Lens, trainer Juan Alvarado is excellent with 2-year-olds, producing winners at a 26 percent rate and is 19 percent at the Saratoga Special distance/surface. Jockey Edgard Zayas has been red hot, winning at a 30 percent clip over the last 30 days and at a 43 percent rate over the last 10. Use underneath.

Lasso had zero early speed in his debut and ate mud early, but once Edgard Zayas pulled him to the outside, Lasso responded by passing the field and opening up by 3 3/4 lengths. He tried to lug in, but once straightened out, kept going, targeting and passing rivals. The final time of 1:01.30 with a 12.82 final furlong was average, but although Lasso beat a next-out winner, the rest of his rivals failed to hit the board in their next start. Lasso’s Equibase figure might be an 83, but Brisnet gave him a 71, one of the lowest in the field. This Juan Alvarado trainee has little black type in his pedigree, but his dam’s half-sister bore multiple graded-placed Ava’s Grace. Lasso posted sharp breezes at Gulfstream, including a second-to-last five furlongs in 59.80 seconds. As of Sunday, Gulfstream shippers were 3-for-30. Pass.

2.  Market Street (10-1)

Market Street did all the running in his debut, easily taking a five-furlong, $120K maiden event at Ellis Park in the slop. (None from that race have started or won since.) He didn’t fare so well in the Sanford at Saratoga, however. The Street Sense colt was on the pace early despite stumbling at the start but folded like a bad poker hand in the stretch to finish sixth. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas is only 5 percent in stakes races, and jockey Jaime Torres has been winning at only a 4 percent rate (43 percent in the money) in the last 10 days. Pass.

Market Street’s Sanford Stakes wasn’t that bad. Although Ashley stole my worn cliché, the Wayne Lukas trainee had an excuse for folding. He stumbled at the start but was rushed to speed duel through 22.5, 45.83, and 58.64 seconds before giving way. The Coach gave Market Street a pre-race bullet four-furlong work in 47.60. Street Sense’s son is out of a Quality Road half-sister to Southwest (G3) winner Super Ninety Nine. His second dam is a full sister to the talented multiple Grade 1-winning star Exogenous. Over the last five years, Lukas has won 15 percent and in the money 41 percent at Saratoga with 2-year-olds. Lukas is sneaky with long-shot rebounds. Exotics.

3.  Woodcourt (10-1)

Woodcourt showed little in his debut at Keeneland in April, a 4 1/2-furlong, $80K event. (Aside from Woodcourt, one other was a next-out winner from this field.) He learned a thing or two from that, however, as he bounced back to win a 5 1/2-furlong, $120K event at Ellis Park in June. Although he was off the pace in his debut, he pressed the pace from second in his subsequent start, took aim at the leader and heavy favorite at the top of the lane, and finally nailed that one inside the final sixteenth. Runner-up Balta was a next-out winner, and fifth-place finisher Just Steel won two starts later. Trainer Brendan Walsh wins at a 25 percent clip with last-race winners, and Woodcourt gets a major jockey upgrade to Jose Ortiz, whose record I do not need to expound upon. Pass.

Woodcourt improved to win his second start but earned only a 65 Brisnet Speed Rating. Although quick out of the gate, the Brendan Walsh trainee was content to chase from second place. He wore down the pacesetter late and galloped out in front in a workmanlike effort. By Ransom the Moon out of a Warrior’s Reward dam, There isn’t much black type in Woodcourt’s pedigree; his second dam is a multiple-graded placed turf miler. Woodcourt needs to improve to fit with these. Pass.

4.  Haul (3-1)

Haul debuted a winner for trainer Todd Pletcher in a 5 1/2-furlong, $90K event at Belmont last month. The Army Mule colt disputed the pace before putting his foe away in the stretch and running off to a 3 1/2-length advantage, which he maintained to the wire. None from that race have either returned or won in subsequent starts. The 87 Equibase speed figure he earned for that effort is the field best. Irad Ortiz Jr. will retain the mount, and it’s unnecessary to spout stats on him or Pletcher. Contender.

In true Pletcher fashion, Haul did everything right in his debut at Belmont. He pressed the pace and took over in the stretch, drawing away by 3 1/2 lengths and earning an 85 Brisnet Speed Rating. Haul drifted out slightly because of Irad Ortiz Jr.’s unnecessary use of the crop. By Army Mule, Haul has a sprinter’s pedigree. His dam’s half-sister bore I’m So Anna, a multiple stakes-winning sprinter/miler, and his stakes-winning second dam is a half-sister to Haskell (G1) hero and sire, Paynter. Here’s a fun statistic. In the last five years at Saratoga, Todd Pletcher wins at a 7 percent rate and 50 percent in the money with 2-year-old last-out maiden winners jumping into stakes. His only victory was with Wit in the 2021 Sanford. Exotics.

5.  Edified (7-2)

Edified won on debut for Steve Asmussen, facilely taking a six-furlong, $120K event at Ellis Park on July 1. The Tapit colt raced on the rail in third just behind the leaders, switched to the outside at the top of the lane, and went right on by and opened up to win by 3 1/2 lengths. Eighth-place finisher Seize the Grey was a next-out winner who moved up in class at Saratoga. He earned a 76 Equibase speed figure. Joel Rosario will retain the mount and has been riding well, winning at an 18 percent clip (49 percent in the money) over the last 30 days. Edified has been training over the Saratoga surface but has not logged any particularly noteworthy works. Use underneath.

Edified looked good in his debut at Ellis Park. He was stuck behind horses briefly but showed another gear when taken to the outside and opened up by 3 1/2 lengths, earning an 80 Brisnet Speed Rating. Tapit’s well-bred son is a half-brother to Grade 1-winning sprinter Constellation, plus multiple stakes-winning sprinter Truth Seeker. Edified’s stakes-winning dam is a half-sister to Grade 2 winning miler Kiss to Remember. In the last five years, Steve Asmussen 2-year-old last-out maiden winners shipped to Saratoga for an incredible 40 percent win rate and 80 percent in the money in stakes. Contender.

6.  Rhyme Schemes (4-5)

Rhyme Schemes is another who showed little in his debut. This son of Ghostzapper raced in sixth, nine lengths off the leader, and that’s where he stayed to the wire in the five-furlong, $120K event at Churchill Downs in May. That field included Gold Sweep, winner of the Tremont and runner-up in the Sanford (G3); Bashford Manor runner-up Wilson Q; and next-out winner Works for Me. Ricardo Santana Jr., who was aboard in his debut, changed tactics with Rhyme Schemes in his second start. The duo went right to the lead in a 5 1/2-furlong, $120K maiden race at Ellis Park and never looked back, romping to a 9 1/2-length victory. That field included three next-out winners. The 86 Equibase speed figure the colt earned in his maiden-breaking victory is the second-highest in the field. Trainer Norm Casse has been winning at a 37 percent clip with Santana and is a high-percentage trainer nearly across the board. Contender.

Draw a line through Rhyme Schemes’ debut. He showed tremendous improvement next time out and led them on a merry chase. He galloped home 9 1/2 lengths in front, earning a 93 Brisnet Speed Rating for his effort. Ghostzapper’s son has no black type in the first two generations of his female family, but his second dam’s half-sister is the speedy Grade 1 winner Dream Rush. The mare is quite the producer and is the grand-dam of two-time champ Malathaat. Norm Casse is noted for placing his horses where they can win. Pretty Birdie, his only maiden-to-stakes runner at Saratoga, won the Schuylerville (G3). Contender.  

        Ashley

     Laurie

6. Rhyme Schemes (4-5)

5. Edified (7-2)

4. Haul (3-1)

4. Haul (3-1)

1. Lasso (15-1)

6. Rhyme Schemes (4-5)

5. Edified (7-2)

2. Market Street (10-1)