Head to Head: Handicapping the 2023 Personal Ensign Stakes

LAURIE

ASHLEY

1. Idiomatic

Idiomatic leaps into Grade 1 company after successfully defeating Grade 2-class runners in the 1 3/16-mile Delaware Handicap. Although she held on by a short head, the victory was impressive considering she stumbled at the start and was climbing early near the back of the pack while racing out of her preferred pacesetter-presser comfort zone and then going four wide around the turn. Then, she stubbornly kept her head in front of a game Classy Edition through the stretch. Curlin’s daughter is out of Mother Goose (G1) heroine Lockdown, whose full sister is 2014 Eclipse champion older female Close Hatches. Brad Cox gave Idiomatic a second-to-last bullet five-furlong breeze over Saratoga’s training track. The filly’s Brisnet Speed Ratings have improved in her last three starts, culminating in a career-best 103 in the Delaware Handicap. There’s a lot to like about this well-bred determined filly, and I vote her most likely to upset the applecart if the top pair don’t bring their A game. Contender.

Speedy Idiomatic has never been out of the trifecta, and after beginning her career racing mainly over Turfway Park’s all-weather surface, she successfully transitioned to dirt this year. Since that transition, she’s gone 3: 2-1-0 with wins in the Shawnee (G3) and the Delaware Handicap (G2). She posted a career-best 113 Equibase speed figure two starts back in the Shawnee and nearly equaled that number with a 112 last out in the DelCap. Distance is no problem, and she’ll be dangerous on the lead. Contender.

2. Malloy

Malloy is the Personal Ensign’s “why?” horse. Although she’s hit the board in eight of 18 career starts, it’s been against sprinter/miler, optional-claiming types in the Midwest. A far cry from this field. Plus, her Brisnet ratings are the lowest in the field. Pass.

Malloy enters off a career-best race, earning a 100 Equibase speed figure when besting an off-the-turf optional claiming field at Hawthorne. It was only her third lifetime win in 18 career starts and first victory in over two years. In her last two outings, the daughter of Outwork has shown speed, but prior to that, she was racing off the pace and was rarely a factor. She was graded stakes-placed as a 3-year-old, but that effort was atypical for her and she was still 8 1/4 lengths behind the winner. Toss.

3. Secret Oath

On her best day, Secret Oath can beat Nest and Clairiere, and she has. The problem is that she can’t beat them on their best day. Out of four matchups against each of them, Secret Oath has won once. The D. Wayne Lukas trainee has hit the board in four of five starts at Saratoga, including a fifth-place finish in last year’s Personal Ensign, and at 1 1/8 miles, she has only one victory from seven starts under her girth. The bright point is that Luis Saez reunites with Secret Oath, and she’s worth an exotics play.

Secret Oath turned in three strong performances to begin 2023, winning the Azeri (G2) with a career-best 110-speed figure before losing the Apple Blossom (G1) and the La Troienne (G1) by a neck each. Last out she came up empty in the Ogden Phipps (G1), finishing fifth, 12 1/2 lengths behind winner Clairiere. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas told Horse Racing Nation that Secret Oath is doing better here (Saratoga) than anywhere and is really on her game. He expects a big effort from the filly, whom he has described as “stronger” and “thriving.” He had intended to run her in the Shuvee (G2) but opted to skip that race and train up to here when Briland Farm owners expressed that they felt as though their filly ran better fresh. Indeed, the Arrogate filly’s career-best Azeri victory came off a four-month layoff. According to Race Lens, Lukas is 23 percent, 50 percent in the money, with runners off a two- to six-month layoff. Secret Oath has two prior efforts at Saratoga, both runner-up finishes to Nest last year in the CCA Oaks (G1), beaten 12 1/4 lengths, and the Alabama (G1), beaten 4 1/4 lengths. Contender.

4. Sixtythreecaliber

Sixtythreecaliber has lost a step as a 4-year-old. Last year, she won five of seven starts, including the Comely Stakes (G3). This year, her sole victory was against optional claimers. The Tom Amoss trainee’s upside is that she’s won at Saratoga and at 1 1/8 miles. She could pull off a lower exotics placing on a good day, but I’ll pass.

Sixtythreecaliber enters off an optional-claiming victory over this track. Runner-up Nostaglic won next out, and third-place finisher Gerrymander is the winner of last year’s Mother Goose (G2), though her form has declined since. Fourth-place finisher Midnight Stroll won last year’s Delaware Oaks (G3), and fifth-place finisher Favor was third in last year’s Fair Grounds Oaks (G2), so it was an accomplished field. Sixtythreecaliber showed little earlier this year against Secret Oath and Pauline’s Pearl, but she was a good second to Idiomatic in the Shawnee (G3) three starts back, receiving a career-best 109-speed figure in defeat. She’s earned triple-digit Equibase speed figures in her last three starts and is clearly in career-best form, but I think she’s just a cut below the big three in this race. Use underneath.

5. Nest

Nest’s only off-the-board finish was in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Distaff when she faced older fillies after a long, seven-race campaign that included a runner-up finish in the Belmont Stakes (G1). She started 2023 with an easy 2 1/2-length victory in the Shuvee against her nemesis Clairiere. Each filly has won twice in four starts in their meet-ups. Nest gets the nod here because of her unbeaten record at Saratoga and her record of four wins in six starts at 1 1/8 miles. Win contender.

Nest ran her Saratoga record to 3-for-3 with a win off the bench last month in the Shuvee. With no pace to speak of, she made quick work of Clairiere, who finished 2 1/4 lengths back in second. Last year, she dominated Secret Oath in back-to-back Grade 1s here. The Todd Pletcher-trained filly has tactical speed and likely will be the first to pounce at the top of the stretch. Contender.

6. Clairiere

Last year, Clairiere faced off with the champion filly Malathaat and beat her in the Ogden Phipps and Shuvee before having a very bad day in the Personal Ensign, fractious in the gate and trailing throughout. Clairiere returned to finish third to Malathaat in an exciting photo finish in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. Clairiere doesn’t perform as well at Saratoga as at tracks with wider turns. She’s won only once in five attempts at the spa and once in seven tries at 1 1/8 miles. But this classy mare must be respected, and if the pace plays to her closing strengths, she’ll be right there. Contender.

Clairiere has not been out of the exacta all season, sandwiching wins in the Apple Blossom (G1) and Ogden Phipps between losses to Secret Oath in the Azeri and Nest in the Shuvee. The daughter of two Grade 1 winners owns the highest Equibase speed figure in the field, the 117 she was in a three-way photo for the win in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff in November, finishing third. Last out Clairiere was compromised by a lack of pace, but with a bigger field lined up here, she might not have that problem this time. Overall, Clairiere has a 5: 1-2-1 record at Saratoga, her only off-the-board placing a fifth in this race last year. Contender.