Head to Head: Handicapping Pacific Classic 2023 at Del Mar

Laurie

Ashley

1. Geaux Rocket Ride, 5-2

I didn’t believe in Geaux Rocket Ride before his Haskell (G1) victory, but I did after he beat Kentucky Derby hero Mage and the speedy Southwest (G3) winner Arabian Knight. The Richard Mandella trainee earned a 100 Brisnet Speed Rating, and his breeze pattern of two seven-furlong stamina works and a pre-race, three-furlong blitz to hone his speed set Candy Ride’s son up for victory. Can he eclipse his sire’s 1:59.11 stakes and track record set in the 2003 Pacific Classic? Contender.

Geaux Rocket Ride has been practically perfect for Mandella, his only loss coming to top Kentucky Derby prospect Practical Move in the San Felipe (G2) in March. He earned a 104 Equibase Speed Figure in that race, a career-best, and he equaled that number in his last outing, a win in the Haskell (G1). Haskell runner-up Mage was seventh of seven next out in the Travers (G1), but fifth-place finisher Tapit Trice improved to finish third that day. This will be the lightly raced Candy Ride colt’s first attempt against his elders. Mandella put him through two stamina-building, seven-furlong works in his most recent published spins around the Del Mar oval. Contender.

2. Katonah, 20-1

Here’s where speed numbers differ. Ashley notes Katonah scored a 112 Equibase Speed Figure. However, he earned only a 98 Brisnet rating, a point lower than his best effort of 99. By the speedy and fragile Klimt, this Doug O’Neill trainee has neither the pedigree nor the speed ratings to play with this group. Pass.

Katonah enters off a career-best effort, a 112 Equibase Speed Figure, in the $150,000 Pleasanton Mile. That was off a previous best 105 in an optional claimer at Santa Anita. The son of Klimt has just four wins in 11 starts. Although he clearly is in fine fettle for trainer Doug O’Neill, this will be a tough class test. According to Race Lens, O’Neill wins at an 11 percent rate and is in the money 37 percent of the time with allowance-to-stakes runners. Pass.

3. Stilleto Boy, 8-1

Stilleto Boy is a warrior who always does his best and is pretty consistent. He loves Santa Anita and hasn’t finished worse than fourth in seven starts there. The same can’t be said for Del Mar, where, in six starts, he’s managed to finish third twice. That said, Shackelford’s son has won and placed in 2 of 3 starts since Kent Desormeaux took the reins. Sometimes a new rider can shake things up. I’ll take a stab at him for a lower-exotics placing.

Stilleto Boy had his coming out party in the Santa Anita Handicap (G1) when he sprung the 14-1 upset. He followed that with a career-best 113 Equibase Speed Figure when finishing third, missing the win by a head and the place by a nose in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2). He was most recently sixth in the Stephen Foster (G1), 4 3/4 lengths behind winner West Will Power. The handsome son of Shackleford is 4: 0-0-2 at Del Mar and was 36 1/2 lengths behind in sixth to the the brilliant Flightline in this event last year. If the Big ’Cap and Oaklawn Handicap version of the gelding shows up this weekend, he stands a shot. Otherwise, use underneath.

4. Tripoli, 20-1

The last two times Tripoli came close to the winner’s circle was over Golden Gate’s Tapeta. Looking at his pedigree and recent so-so past performances, the 6-year-old may have lost a step, and a switch to turf might liven things up. By Champion Grass sire Kitten’s Joy, Tripoli is out of a stakes-placed daughter of Tapit, who won or placed in 3 of 4 turf starts and was indifferent on dirt. Yes, he won a mediocre Pacific Classic in 2021, but he was younger and less tired then, like the rest of us. Pass.

Tripoli is 5: 1-0-1 for the year but enters off a career second-best 110 Equibase Speed Figure. He earned that finishing fifth, beaten by 3 1/2 lengths in the San Diego Handicap (G2), finishing behind Señor Buscador, Slow Down Andy and Defunded. Prior to that he was fourth behind Katonah in the Pleasanton Mile. His lone win for the year came in an allowance race over Golden Gate’s all-weather surface. Tripoli did win this race two years ago, but that was an arguably weak field, and he hasn’t hit the board in a graded stakes since. Trainer John Sadler is just 9 percent with runners off a one- to two-month layoff. Pass.

5. Defunded, 4-1

Defunded’s fourth-place finish in the San Diego Handicap wasn’t bad. He was wide the entire way, coming off a three-month layoff and possibly not totally cranked to win. Additionally, Del Mar isn’t his favorite track, and he was coming off a career-best 101 Brisnet Speed Rating in the Holllywood Gold Cup (G1) at Santa Anita. Defunded has fired a series of bullet works covering five, six and recently four furlongs, typical of Bob Baffert’s charges. Exotics.

That was an inexplicable beat for Defunded in the San Diego Handicap (G2). The 5-year-old gelding was the odds-on favorite but could manage only fourth. He earned a career-best 110 Equibase Speed Figure, though. He’s 3: 1-1-1 at the 1 1/4-mile distance but only 6: 2-0-1 at Del Mar. Trainer Bob Baffert’s stats speak for themselves. Contender.

6. Order and Law, 30-1

Order and Law took advantage of glacial fractions and a weak field to capture his first graded stakes in a dawdling 2:32.25, the third-slowest time since the Cougar II (G3) was switched to 1 1/2 miles in 2014. This old guy is pretty consistent, but I agree with Ashley that this is an ambitious place for Order and Law to show up. Pass.

Order and Law won the 1 1/2-mile Cougar II (G3) over this track last out, receiving a 100 Equibase Speed Figure. Prior to that, his last win came in February 2022 in a one-mile claiming race on the lawn at Gulfstream. I’m not quite sure where that graded win came from since Order and Law had been off the board in two straight claiming races this year. This is an ambitious placing for the 7-year-old son of Violence, and trainer Bob Hess is just a 4 percent winner and 21 percent in the money in stakes races. Pass.

7. Slow Down Andy, 8-1

Slow Down Andy has a steady pattern of cashing checks and has finished second in all three tries at Del Mar. He was rank in the San Diego Handicap (G2) when asked to sit off a moderate pace and was angry with the flogging he received from Mario Gutierrez in the stretch, flagging his tail and slowing as Señor Buscador rolled by to win by 1 1/4 lengths. I’m going to pass.

Slow Down Andy finished second last out in the San Diego Handicap (G2). He had the lead in the stretch but was outkicked by Señor Buscador. He may have won if not for how rank he was in the early going. He still earned a career-best 113 Equibase Speed Figure. The son of Nyquist never has been tested beyond 1 1/8 miles and is 4: 2-1-1 at that distance with wins on the turf and dirt. O’Neill is an 18 percent winner and 49 percent in the money with this distance and surface but just a 6 percent winner and 34 percent in the money in stakes. Slow Down Andy himself is 3: 0-3-0 at Del Mar. Use underneath.

8. Señor Buscador, 10-1

Señor Buscador strolled by a laboring Slow Down Andy, Defunded and Tripoli in the San Diego Handicap (G2), a key prep for the Pacific Classic. Without his back-to-back wins in his initial starts in 2020, the Todd Fincher trainee has a pattern of regressing after every victory. However, he hit the board in 2 of 3 starts at Del Mar, so he’s worth a long-shot exotics play.

Five-year-old Señor Buscador is downright inconsistent, putting together a 12: 6-0-1 lifetime record. He posted a career and field-best 115 speed rating in winning the San Diego Handicap (G2) last out, but the son of Mineshaft has not strung together back-to-back victories since winning his debut and the Springboard Mile in his first two starts. Between his inability to string together victories and his overall lack of hitting the board aside from those wins, I have to pass.

9. Arabian Knight, 3-1

The Haskell (G1) was a tall order for Arabian Knight, making just the third start of his career, traveling to a new track and adding distance after a six-month layoff. To his credit, Uncle Mo’s son finished a distant third despite being used early to get position and after vying for the early lead while going wide. The Bob Baffert trainee never got a breather when Geaux Rocket Ride and Mage mounted challenges. Arabian Knight's breeze pattern isn’t as quick as stablemate Defunded’s, and I wonder if he’ll regress a little off the strenuous Haskell effort while adding distance. Exotics play.

Extremely lightly raced Arabian Knight was third as the even-money favorite last out in the Haskell (G1). It was his first start in six months, and he likely needed to shake the rust off. Baffert is wins 29 percent and is in the money 59 percent with runners second off the layoff, according to Race Lens. Flavien Prat replaces regular rider John Velazquez, who will be at Kentucky Downs and Saratoga this weekend. Baffert and Prat have combined for a 17 percent strike rate and are in the money 45 percent of the time. Contender.

10. Piroli, 20-1

In his last start Piroli was fractious in the gate and stumbled at the break, leaving him at the back of the pack. Unfortunately, the misstep took him out of his pace-pressing style. He made a late move, passed tired horses and gained ground to finish fourth, three lengths behind the winner. Michael McCarthy follows the same pattern of an optional-claiming prep to graded-stakes training. It earned Piroli a second-place finish in the Hollywood Gold Cup at Santa Anita. Sneaky, live long shot.

A rare Battle of Midway baby, Piroli followed Defunded all the way around the track in his graded-stakes debut in the Hollywood Gold Cup (G1). The 4-year-old gelding ran the race of his life, hounding the favorite into the stretch but lacking the punch needed to get by that rival. He earned a career-best 107 Equibase Speed Figure for the effort. He was fourth in an optional claimer last out but stumbled at the break and lost all chance. He trailed the field, had to go wide off the far turn and just did not have the turn of foot to run down the leaders. Coming back from a fall Thursday, Umberto Rispoli still was expected to replace Kent Desormeaux, who was aboard for the gelding’s last two starts. Live long shot.

11. Skinner, 10-1

By hot sire Curlin out of a stakes-winning daughter of Malibu Moon, Skinner finally gets a chance to stretch out to the classic distance for which he’s bred. He closed for third place in an exciting edition of the Santa Anita Derby (G1) but didn’t make the Kentucky Derby field due to a fever. Skinner returned to the track in the Los Alamitos Derby in July. He was wide and climbing somewhat in the early stages. Then he was late to switch leads and was unfocused down the lane only to get back on track and gradually eat into Reincarnate’s lead. It wasn’t a bad prep, and the John Sherriff’s trainee should build off the effort. Exotics play.

Well-bred Skinner has just one win in seven career starts due to having the misfortune to continually come up against the Baffert and Yakteen buzzsaws. The son of Curlin finally broke his maiden in his fourth start after finishing fifth on debut, third in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) and sixth in the American Pharoah (G1). Since getting the monkey off his back, he’s finished third in the San Felipe (G2), third in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and second in the Los Alamitos Derby. Hector Berrios will be up for the first time. I don’t look for a win, but I would not be surprised to see this guy get a piece of the pie. Exotics.

Laurie

Ashley

  1. Geaux Rocket Ride, 5-2

  5. Defunded, 4-1

  8. Señor Buscador, 10-1

  1. Geaux Rocket Ride, 5-2

11. Skinner, 10-1

  9. Arabian Knight, 3-1

  5. Defunded, 4-1

10. Piroli, 20-1