Head to Head: Handicapping the 2023 Kelso Stakes

LAURIE

ASHLEY

1. English Bee  (20-1)

Every race has that complete throw-out, and English Bee is the field’s “Why?” horse. The 7-year-old gelding’s best days are behind him; he’s seen the winner’s circle only once in two years, an optional claimer at Gulfstream this January. He’s struggled since then. Pass.

English Bee was shelved in the first half of 2022 after a series of races in which his past performances read: one-paced; weakened; not enough; needed more; stalk, vied, faded. Calumet Farm gelded the son of English Channel and brought him back in January to give him a fresh start. He looked improved when winning a mile optional claimer at Gulfstream while doing the early leg work, but he quickly went back to his old form. He’s been off the board in his last three races, including a seventh-place finish last out in a one-mile optional claimer at Churchill Downs. Trainer Graham Motion produces winners at a 19 percent clip with runners coming in off a 1–2-month layoff, but jockey John Velazquez only wins at an 11 percent rate in turf miles. Pass.

2. Annapolis  (8-5)

The most consistent horse in the Kelso field, Annapolis has six wins and two seconds in nine starts; the Breeders’ Cup Turf Mile is the only mar on his record. By War Front out of Gazelle (G2) heroine My Miss Sophia, Annapolis performs well off a layoff. The Todd Pletcher trainee’s breezes are a string of moderate 4-furlong works. Annapolis has tactical speed but shouldn’t be too far off the pace. He’s handled soft turf in the past. Contender.

Annapolis enters off a head victory in the one-mile Opening Verse Stakes at Churchill Downs on May 4. It was the colt’s first start since a disappointing 11th in November in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. Three starts back, Annapolis posted a field-best 114 Equibase speed figure for the turf mile, which is the son of War Front’s preferred conditions. While he’s 9: 6-2-0 overall, he’s 5: 3-1-0 at the distance, with the Breeders’ Cup as his only race outside the exacta. Regular rider Irad Ortiz, Jr. remains aboard for trainer Todd Pletcher, neither of whom needs their stats touted. Contender.

3. Mid Day Image  (30-1)

Mid Day Image steps up and stretches out for David Jacobson after two seconds and a third since transferring barns. Midshipman’s son is capable at 1 1/16 miles, so the mile should suit him. The chink in his armor is that he expends most of his energy in the early and mid stages of the race and has low late-pace figures. Additionally, he’s won one of five starts at a mile. Pass.

Mid Day Image enters off three straight sprint races this year, going 3: 2-1-0, including a win over Gun It in an optional claimer. Last out, the son of Midshipman was third as the favorite in the 6-furlong Laurel Dash. The 7-year-old has only been out of the trifecta once in a turf mile and gets a jockey upgrade to Florent Geroux, who has been winning at a 40 percent clip in the last ten days. Trainer David Jacobson is only six percent in stakes races but is succeeding at a 20 percent clip under the conditions and at a 22 percent clip with sprint-to-route runners. However, Mid Day Image has some of the worst recent numbers in the field. Pass.

4. Ice Chocolat  (20-1)

Who doesn’t like Ice Chocolat, especially in this summer heat? Love the name, the horse, not so much. The Mark Casse charge has been inconsistent this year, hitting the board once in four starts, a sprint over Woodbine’s Tapeta course. The 5-year-old gelding is winless outside of Woodbine. Pass.

Ice Chocolat drops in class out of the Jaipur (G1), won by NTRA Top 10 Thoroughbred Caravel. While Ice Chocolat finished sixth, he was only 3 lengths behind the winner. The Brazilian-bred has primarily sprinted throughout his career but has finished second by a neck in both a -furlong and a 1 1/16-mile race. This will be his first time trying a flat mile. Only off the board five times in 16 tries, the gelding has never been badly beaten, his worst loss being a fifth place, 5 1/4-length defeat. Flavien Prat hops aboard for the first time for Mark Casse. While Casse is just 12 percent with sprint-to-route runners, Prat is winning turf miles at a 23 percent clip. Live longshot.

5. Big Everest  (5-1)

After the ultimate equipment change, he has been a whole new horse. Big Everest has reeled off four straight victories, and now he puts his streak on the line in Grade 3 company. He fits here and put the squeeze on Anaconda twice before. Big Everest will be pressured on the lead, but he’s capable at a mile to longer distances. Christophe Clement has captured the Kelso Stakes twice, including last year with Joel Rosario on City Man.  Contender.

Big Everest brings a four-race win streak to the gate, including three straight stakes wins. He beat Anaconda twice during that run. The Christophe Clement trainee has just two starts this year, beginning his season on April 15 after a five-month layoff. Prior to his winter layoff, the son of The Gurkha was brought back from a previous layoff during which he was gelded, something that has turned him into a whole new runner. Since losing his horse-hood, he’s gone 7: 6-0-0, his only loss coming at Saratoga last summer. Clement has been quite successful in all angles relevant to this gelding, and Joel Rosario hops back aboard for the first time since the Artie Schiller. I much prefer Rosario on a front-runner, and I like Big Everest’s chances to cash a check. Use underneath.

6.  Filo Di Arianna  (5-1)

Filo Di Arianna spends most of his time winning at Woodbine yet transferred his form to Belmont’s lawn in the Poker (G3). The Mark Casse trainee led them on a merry chase only to be nipped in a blanket finish. Filo Di Arianna’s weak spot is that he’s a need-the-lead type, and he’ll likely have company up front. Exotics.

Filo Di Arianna has only had two bad races in his career: a 10th in last year’s Shakertown (G2) and a 12th in his subsequent start in the Jaipur (G1). He had an excuse in the Jaipur; however, since he stumbled at the break and was bumped hard. After all that, he raced at the rear of the field, which goes against his typical running style, and had nothing to offer when asked. The 7-year-old has tried the turf mile twice with a win and a second-place finish. Interestingly, Filo Di Arianna hasn’t had the same jockey in back-to-back races since Henrique rode him in Brazil. Jose Ortiz will be aboard for Casse in the son of Drosselmeyer’s third start off the layoff. He has two second-place finishes this year, just missing in both, and is eligible to continue to improve. Contender.

7. Anaconda  (6-1)

Anaconda had an excuse in the Poker Stakes (G3) last out. He was traveling on the rail, saw an opening, but it was traveling faster than he was, so Tyler Gaffalione had a handful of horse with nowhere to go. Anaconda galloped out in front once the rail opened up. The Joe Sharp trainee is very consistent and has hit the board in four of six tries at a mile. Exotics.

I’m not gonna lie…I have that Nicki Minaj song stuck in my head, and I’m deeply concerned for my sanity. As for this horse…Anaconda is 5: 1-1-0 for the year, finishing behind Filo Di Arianna last out in the Poker (G3) in a close decision and falling short by a nose to Big Everest three starts back in the Danger’s Hour. Trainer Joe Sharp and jockey Tyler Gaffalione are both excellent, but I “don’t want none…son.” Pass.

8. Casa Creed  (5-2)

Casa Creed is following a similar race pattern from last year but may have lost a step. He tried to defend his Jaipur (G1) title but managed no better than third. It was his first start back since traveling to Dubai to finish second in the 1351 Turf Sprint (G3) at King Abdulaziz Racecourse. The Bill Mott trainee loves the Saratoga lawn; he won the Hall of Fame (G2) in 2019 and Fourstardave (G1) last year but now steps down in company. The pace should be strong for this one-run closer. Contender.

Casa Creed has turned in two excellent races this year. He was second by a head in the Turf Sprint (G3) in Saudi Arabia in February and was just a length back in third to the mighty Caravel in the Jaipur (G1) last out. He finds easier company here, though he did lose at a flat mile to Annapolis in last year’s Coolmore Turf Mile (G1). Regular jockey Luis Saez retains the mount for Bill Mott. Mott is winning at an 18 percent clip with sprint-to-route runners and at a 21 percent rate in stakes. Saez only wins with 13 percent of his turf mile mounts but lands in the money 42 percent of the time. Contender.

        9. Gun It (MTO) (3-5)

The well-bred Gun It is entered for the main track only should the race come off the lawn. This is unlikely, so he’ll scratch. Gun It is by Tapit out of Miss Besilu, a half-sister to Horse of the Year Saint Liam and half-sister to the dam of Gun Runner. I look forward to seeing this Grade 3-placed competitor later this meet.

While Gun It is a main-track-only entrant, the regally bred gelding has tried turf before, his best finish was a third in a turf mile at Kentucky Downs in 2020. Should this race come off the turf, he only marginally becomes more of a contender as there are others in the field with better off-track form than him. Pass.