Head to Head: Handicapping the 2023 Haskell Stakes

LAURIE

ASHLEY

1. Geaux Rocket Ride (9-2)

Geaux Rocket Ride’s only loss was to the more experienced eventual Santa Anita Derby hero Practical Move. While it’s true that the conservative Richard Mandella doesn’t ship east much, there are three knocks against Candy Ride’s son. 1. A new distance, but he’s bred to handle 9 furlongs. 2. A new jock, although John Velazquez handled Geaux Rocket Ride in his last start, and most importantly, 3. Racing away from Santa Anita while facing more accomplished foes. As Ashley shows, Geaux Rocket Ride has the speed ratings. Let’s see if he handles these. Exotics.

Lightly raced Geaux Rocket Ride debuted in late January, easily taking a 6-furlong $67,000 maiden race by 5 3/4 lengths. (Runner-up Sonoran was a next-out winner. Third-place finisher Ever a Rebel won two starts later, is stakes placed, and races in the Oceanside Stakes on Friday, July 21. Fourth-place-finisher Uncle Jake dropped in class and won next out, too.) The Candy Ride colt was then 2nd to the well-regarded Practical Move in the San Felipe (G2) in his second start and most recently won the $100,000 Affirmed Stakes. He earned a 101 Equibase speed figure for his debut and a career-best 104 for his runner-up performance in the San Felipe. He only received a 95 for the Affirmed, and while Vazquez rode him out, his win was never questioned. Mike Smith hops aboard for the first time and is 22 percent at the distance and surface. Trainer Richard Mandella produces 19 percent winners with runners off a 1-2 month layoff and is 16 percent in stakes. Contender.

2. Awesome Strong (30-1)

A big horse in a restricted pond, Awesome Strong wasn’t awesome or strong in his first start away from home and open company. The Jorge Delgado trainee has a decent series of works at Monmouth, culminating in a pre-race 5-furlong bullet. He should improve in his second start off the layoff, but this is a considerable class leap. Pass.

Awesome Strong went undefeated in his juvenile season, including sweeping the FTBOA Florida Sire Stakes series. The son of Awesome Slew was then away from the races for eight months, making his return in a 6-furlong optional claimer at Delaware. Typically a front-runner, the colt chased the pace in fifth and had nothing to offer in the stretch. Trainer Jorge Delgado gets 26 percent winners in stakes and 23 percent winners with runners off a 1-2 month layoff. This is a huge jump in class for the colt. Pass.

3. Salute the Stars (8-1)

Salute the Stars has Grade 1 breeding. His dam’s full sister Farrell is a multiple graded winner, including the Fairgrounds Oaks (G2); half-brother Carpe Diem is a multiple Grade 1 winner, and J. B.’s Thunder is also a Grade 1 winner. The Brad Cox trainee’s speed figures have improved in each start, although he’s still a little green. The horse, not Cox. Salute the Stars captured the Pegasus Stakes over Fairgrounds Derby (G2) hero Kingsbarns and is ready to step up. Cox seeks the hat trick. Contender.

Salute the Stars began his career on turf, where he went 2: 1-1-0 for J A Ortiz. The Wests transferred their homebred to Brad Cox, who switched the Candy Ride colt to dirt. He quickly reeled off two straight wins, including a neck victory in the Pegasus Stakes, the local prep for the Haskell, despite steadying early and being rank. He earned a career-best 104 Equibase speed figure for that effort. Joel Rosario, who was aboard in the Pegasus, retains the mount. I don’t need to quote Cox’s stats, but it’s worth noting that Rosario continues to put in some questionable rides. Which Rosario shows up will dictate how good of a chance this colt has to win. Contender.

4. Mage (3-1)

So was the Haskell a target on route to the Travers Stakes, or was it a last-minute decision? Gustavo Delgado gave Mage a series of stamina works to keep our Kentucky Derby hero fit. The question is if the race will set up for his closing kick. Contender.

Another late to the starting gate, Mage debuted a winner at Gulfstream in late January. The Good Magic colt took an $84,000 maiden field gate-to-wire going seven furlongs. Trainer Gustavo Delgado wasted no time from there, entering his charge in the Fountain of Youth (G2) for his second start, where he encountered trouble en route to a fourth place showing. He was then second in the Florida Derby (G1), starting slowly and circling the field. He had the lead in the stretch but couldn’t fend off Forte. His new late rallying style finally ushered him into the winner’s circle when he upset the apple cart in the Kentucky Derby (G1), earning a career-best 104 Equibase speed figure. Two weeks later, he could not effectively make up any ground on National Treasure and finished 3rd in the Preakness. Delgado is just 9 perce t in stakes and 7 percent with runners off a 2-6 month layoff. Exotics.

5. Tapit Trice (3-1)

Tapit Trice has won or placed at six different tracks, minus Churchill, which is typical for Tapit offspring. Also typical is his quirky antisocial attitude and not wanting to run next to others. The Todd Pletcher trainee has some of the best speed ratings in the field, but he’ll need a swift pace to set up his closing kick. Exotics.

Tapit Trice rattled off four straight victories after finishing 3rd on debut, including the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) and Blue Grass Stakes (G1). He was one of the betting favorites for the Kentucky Derby but couldn’t work out a winning trip under the Twin Spires, ultimately finishing seventh. A lot of people had the big gray colt tabbed as their Belmont horse, but the best Tapit Trice could do in New York was third. Regular jockey Luis Saez remains aboard for trainer Todd Pletcher. Exotics.

6. Howgreatisnate (20-1)

Howgreatisnate is competitive in listed and overnight stakes at shorter distances. His speed ratings jumped seven points since switching to Elizabeth Dobles’s barn. But that isn’t going to be enough against this group. Pass.

Howgreatisnate reeled off four straight wins to begin his career, including two stakes races. Andrew Simoff took a shot at the Derby Trail, but the Speightster gelding stumbled at the start and threw J D Acosta. He was then fourth in the Private Terms before being transferred to Elizabeth Dobles. He then won the Long Branch by a head and was most recently third in the Pegasus behind Salute the Stars, where he earned a career-best 100 Equibase speed figure. Paco Lopez picks up the mount and is 25 percent at this distance and surface. Dobles is 18 percent in stakes races. “Nate” seems like a great gelding, but this spot might be a bit much. Pass.

7.  Extra Anejo (5-1)

By Into Mischief, Extra Anejo's distaff line is filled with international turf stars, including 2003 Champion Turf Mare Islington and a Melbourne Cup (G1) winner. So it’s surprising to see him doing well on the dirt, although all of his competitors have been hit-or-miss as allowance/optional claiming types, so perhaps he’s simply outclassing them. The Steve Asmussen trainee’s speed figures are average, and he’s in against some heavy hitters. The one thing in his favor is that he has tactical speed, and Tyler Gaffalione hits the board 46 percent of the time in routes. Exotics.

Extra Anejo was the easiest of winners in his debut in October, taking a $100,000 maiden race at Keeneland by 9 1/2 lengths in gate-to-wire fashion. He didn’t race again until early May, running 2nd by a length off the extended layoff. With a race under his girth, he once again was an easy winner last month at Ellis Park, winning a $100,000 optional claimer by 6 1/4 lengths with a career-best 100 Equibase speed figure. He put in a solid work over the Saratoga oval for trainer Steve Asmussen on the 15th, turning in the fourth-best work of the day at five furlongs. This will be the Into Mischief colt’s first attempt at a true route, as the furthest he’s raced is a flat mile. This is a huge step up in class, but Extra Anejo looks to have the talent to handle it. Contender.

8. Arabian Knight (5-2)

Arabian Knight is simply brilliant, at least against lesser types. Only two competitors returned to place in graded stakes. So how far can he carry that speed? Arabian Knight is by Uncle Mo, out of a daughter of Astrology, who failed to win beyond 1 1/16 miles. The colt’s distaff line is also filled with sprinter/miler blacktype earners. Yes, the Bob Baffert trainee has been logging plenty of stamina works, but that doesn’t replace a race. Perhaps he’ll run them off their feet, but I expect a lesser placing more likely. Exotics.

Undefeated Arabian Knight enters off a 5 1/2-month layoff. The son of Uncle Mo has never been threatened, winning his 7-furlong debut by 7 1/4 lengths and the Southwest (G3) by 5 1/2 lengths, both in gate-to-wire fashion. He owns the field-best 106 Equibase speed figure. Trainer Bob Baffert has been putting him through his paces in the mornings, working him six to seven furlongs in each of his last five published works. It’s hard to find a chink in his armor, but I would have liked to have seen a 3 or 4-furlong blowout work to indicate that he was on his toes. Regardless, it’s easy to see why this colt is the morning line favorite. Contender.