Head to Head: Handicapping the 2023 Breeders' Cup Juvenile

Laurie

Ashley

1.  The Wine Steward (8-1)

In his first two-turn start, The Wine Steward gave Lock all he could handle in the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity. The Mike Maker trainee athletically cut the corner and fought while on the rail in close quarters, which can intimidate a young horse. By 2019 Breeders' Cup Classic hero Vino Rosso, The Wine Steward is the first foal out of a half-sister to the multiple graded turf router Isotherm and to Grade 3 winner Giant Game, who was third in the 2021 Breeders' Cup Juvenile. The Wine Steward has won or placed at four tracks, and his Brisnet ratings are among the highest in the field. Contender.

By Vino Rosso, The Wine Steward is undefeated around one turn and suffered his first career defeat last out when trying two turns for the first time. Two of his wins came in New York-bred races, but he won the Bashford Manor in open company and was a close second last out in the Breeders' Futurity, losing by a half-length to Locked. The Wine Steward's best Brisnet Speed Rating is the 97 he earned when winning the state-bred Funny Cide Stakes, but his best TimeformUS Speed Figure, a 113, came in his loss in the Breeders' Futurity. Luis Saez, who was aboard in the Bashford Manor and Breeders' Futurity, has the call. Saez and trainer Mike Maker strike at a 15 percent clip together, but the rail has not filled out the Breeders' Cup Juvenile superfecta since 2010. Pass.

2.  Prince of Monaco (4-1)

I've loved this guy from the start. He does everything easily, and his ears have been pricked at the end of every race, signaling a little extra distance won't be a problem. He's a large colt running on talent, and Speightstown's son has tactical speed. The cleverly named colt is out of the unraced Medaglia d'Oro mare Rainier, and his female line is packed with stakes winners. His dam's half-brother is multiple stakes-winning sprinter Laurie's Rocket; half-sister Greeley's Rocket is a multiple stakes-winning turf sprinter, and another half-sister bore the multiple stakes-winning sprinter Necker Island, who placed in the Indiana and Ellis Park derbies. Prince of Monaco's stakes-placed second dam's half-sister is Grade 1 heroine Adieu. Prince of Monaco had a pre-race five-furlong work in 1:00.20 with a stablemate. Prince of Monaco pressed his mate before taking over just before the wire and galloped out well within himself. Contender.

Undefeated in three career starts, Prince of Monaco is the prohibitive favorite for the Juvenile. He scored in the Best Pal (G3) over stablemate Muth and the Del Mar Futurity (G1). As is typical for a Bob Baffert trainee, this son of Speightstown likes to be on or pressing the lead. His best Brisnet rating is the 102 he received in the Best Pal; his best Timeform figure, a 114, also came in the Best Pal. The big knock here is that this colt hasn't tried two turns; but trainer Bob Baffert wins at a 33 percent clip, 71 percent in the money, with sprint-to-route runners. Flavien Prat, who was aboard for his last two races, retains the mount, and he and Baffert win together at a 21 percent rate, 53 percent in the money). No Juvenile winner has won the Del Mar Futurity as their final prep. Contender.

3.  Wine Me Up (15-1)

Wine Me Up faced winners in the American Pharoah (G1) in his second start and first around two turns. He relaxed on the lead until his more accomplished stablemate Muth challenged. Wine Me Up tried his best but couldn't keep up, finishing 3 3/4 lengths behind. It was a reasonable effort, and he was 5 1/4 lengths in front of the third-place finisher, Be You, who bested Locked in their debut. Be You returned to finish 2 1/2 lengths behind Timberlake in the Hopeful (G1). Wine Me Up had a pre-race five-furlong work in 59.40 seconds in company with Muth. It was a workmanlike breeze, with little separating the pair. Muth moved a tad easier over the track, but Wine Me Up's rider briefly scrubbed near the wire. Vino Rosso's son is out of the stakes-winning turf mare Deanaallen'skitten. Two half-siblings won on dirt but were best on the lawn overall. I believe Wine Me Up will be a turf horse when he grows up. Pass.

Another "wine" by Vino Rosso, Wine Me Up was a debut winner for Bob Baffert, winning a six-furlong maiden event by 1 1/2 lengths. He received only an 86 Brisnet Speed Rating for the effort. Last out, he finished 3 3/4 lengths behind stablemate Muth in the American Pharoah (G1), earning a 95 Brisnet. Although he hails from the high-percentage barn of Baffert, he's clearly the third stringer among his stablemates, and his speed figures aren't quite up to snuff by comparison. Ramon Vazquez, who was aboard in the American Pharoah, retains the mount, and he and Baffert win at a 17 percent clip, 44 percent in the money, together Pass.

4.  Timberlake (4-1)

Timberlake's Brisnet ratings are inconsistent, and he has a lose-win cycle. When he's good, he's very good, graduating by 9 1/4 lengths at Ellis Park and splashing home a 4 1/4-length winner in the Champagne (G1). There was a 15-point performance leap from his second-place finish in the Hopeful (G1) to the Champagne, indicating the Brad Cox trainee might regress in the Juvenile. Into Mischief's son hails from a family of long-winded European turf routers. Think 12 and 14 furlongs, so distance won't be a problem. Timberlake has tactical speed and his connections must be respected, but that significant speed figure jump concerns me. Pass.

By Into Mischief, Timberlake was a disappointing sixth in his debut as the favorite. A drop in class saw him demolish a seven-furlong field by 9 1/4 lengths. He was then second to huge long shot Nutella Fella in the Hopeful (G1), again as the favorite, before running away with the Champagne (G1), besting General Partner by 4 1/4 lengths. He received a career-best 102 Brisnet rating and 113 TimeformUS figure for his Champagne effort. In both victories, Timberlake was either on the lead or in second at the second call. Regular rider Florent Geroux will be in the irons. Post 4 is the winningest post for the Juvenile since 2000, with five victors. Four Juvenile winners since 2000 have exited the Champagne as their final prep. Trainer Brad Cox wins with 2-year-olds at a whopping 30 percent clip and stakes races at a 25 percet rate. Together, Geroux and Cox visit the winner's circle 16 percent of the time. Contender.

5.  Ecoro Neo (30-1)

Ecoro Neo is still a maiden and was second best by a half-length in his second start. He made a furious late move and missed by a half-length. The winning time was an uninspiring 1:14.40 for six furlongs, although the tracks are deeper in Japan. Bernardini's son is out of a Grade 3 turf stakes-placed daughter of Street Sense. His half-sister Smokie Eyes is multiple stakes-placed, and his second dam is multiple stakes-winning turf mare Unspoken Word. Ecoro Neo is still a maiden; if he wins, he'll be a bigger upset than Storm the Court. Pass.

Bred in the U.S., Ecoro Neo hails from Japan connections. Still a maiden, the son of Bernardini debuted at 1 1/4 miles on turf, where he had a good start but tired, finished 12th, beaten by 14 lengths. Last out, he missed by just a half-length when shortening to six furlongs and switching to dirt. Trainer Hideyuki Mori is no stranger to the U.S. but has never hit the board stateside. Yuga Kawada will be in the irons. Pass.

6.  Locked (7-2)

Locked has won at two tracks while showing tactical speed. Although his Brisnet rating dropped 10 points in the Breeders' Futurity after he posted a gaudy 105 rating in his second start, the Todd Pletcher trainee outgamed last-out maiden The Wine Steward even though he was late to switch leads. By Gun Runner out of a Malibu Moon half-sister to multiple Grade 1 heroine Gabby's Golden Gal, Locked should improve with maturity. Locked posted moderate works at Keeneland and could be tough to beat. Contender.

Trained by Todd Pletcher, Locked was third upon debut, beaten by 3 1/2 lengths in a six-furlong, maiden event at Saratoga. Pletcher stretched him out for his second start and Locked responded by winning the one-mile, maiden race by 7 1/4 lengths with a field-best Brisnet rating of 105. Timeform gave him a 109. Last out, the son of Gun Runner prevailed by a half-length in the Breeders' Futurity (G1) over The Wine Steward with a 95 Brisnet and 113 Timeform 113. Locked closed for third in his debut, initially pressed the pace before taking over by the half-mile call in his second start and sat mid-pack last out, indicating an ability to run a good race no matter what. Jose Ortiz retains the mount. Ortiz and Pletcher get their picture taken at a 22 percent clip, 55 percent in the money. Four Juvenile winners since 2000 have won the Breeders' Futurity in their final prep. Contender.

7.  Cuban Thunder (IRE) (30-1)

Cuban Thunder is one of the Juvenile's "why?" horses. He's been beaten an impressive combined 63 1/4 lengths in his last four starts. Cuban Thunder's pedigree has strong turf sprint influences, and we have to go back to his third dam, an Italian Oaks winner, to find black type. Pass.

Trained by Adrian Murray, Cuban Thunder ships in from across the pond. This son of Profitable has never tried traditional dirt but did nab third on Dundalk's all-weather surface last out at huge odds. Speaking of long odds, Cuban Thunder went to post at 50-1 odds or longer in his last four starts, including when he hit the board in the Star Appeal Stakes earlier this month. He earned a career-high Timeform figure of 80 in that race. Also of note is that Cuban Thunder has never raced beyond seven furlongs. Tiago Pereira has the call. Although four European runners have won the Juvenile since its inception, they all had higher achievements than Cuban Thunder. Pass.

8.  General Partner (8-1)

General Partner regressed a bit in the Champagne (G1) after graduating in his second start by four lengths with a 101 Brisnet rating. That's not unexpected with young horses. His runner-up finish wasn't bad, considering he was trying three new things at once, a different track, longer distance and running in mud. Still, the Chad Brown trainee will need to improve and will face tough competition while on the front end. Fortunately, Manny Franco is one of the best with early-speed types. General Partner has a strong miler pedigree and is by Speightstown out of a Distorted Humor mare. He has three sprinter-miler, black-type-earning siblings. Exotics.

By Speightstown, General Partner had problems leaving the gate in his first two starts. In his debut, he brushed the gate and bumped with a rival, pressed the pace from second and ended up finishing fourth, beaten by 2 3/4 lengths. In his second start, he once again bumped with a rival leaving the gate but obtained the lead, winning easily by four lengths with a Brisnet Speed Rating of 101. Both of those races were maiden events at Saratoga, the first at six furlongs and the second at seven furlongs. Last out, General Partner tried to take the Champagne (G1) gate-to-wire but could only manage second against Timberlake. Trainer Chad Brown is 40 percent, with runners making their second route start. Regular rider Manny Franco retains the mount, and he and Brown win together at a 19 percent clip, 51 percent in the money. Exotics.

9.  Fierceness (6-1)

Fierceness acted up before the Champagne (G1) started, took an awkward step coming out of the gate and had to steady soon after. He made a three-wide move around the half-mile pole but couldn't sustain the drive and was going up and down at the top of the stretch. It was the Todd Pletcher trainee's second start, and he could improve in the Juvenile, but it would be a surprise if he won. Fierceness had a pre-race four-furlong work in 48.60 inside of Noted at Keeneland. Neither were asked, but Fierceness moved easier and stayed a neck in front, including during the gallop out. Fierceness is out of a Stay Thirsty half-sister to Wood Memoria (G1) winner Outwork. His second dam Nona Mia, is a Grade 1 winner, and she's a half-sister to sire Cairo Prince. Maybe Fierceness can rebound for a piece of the Juvenile pie, but there are others I like better. Pass.

By City of Light, Fierceness was a brilliant debut winner for trainer Todd Pletcher. He won a six-furlong maiden event at Saratoga in gate-to-wire fashion by 11 lengths with a Brisnet Speed Rating of 101. Timeform rated him at 115. He showed little in the Champagne (G1), however. He lunged at the start and did not get to the lead, finishing seventh, beaten by 20 lengths, checking in behind Timberlake and General Partner. Interestingly, this colt has yet to catch a fast track, so that will be as much of a question mark as which version of the colt we'll see in California. With the presence of the Baffert duo, bettors should catch some nice odds on this colt. John Velazquez replaces regular rider Irad Ortiz Jr., who will be aboard Noted. No Juvenile winner has finished worse than third in their final prep. But since Fierceness is so lightly raced, I find myself looking twice at him. Also, John Velazquez and Pletcher used to be the dynamic duo, although their current stats might not reflect it. One to consider.

10. Muth (4-1)

Muth had no answer when Prince of Monaco ran by him in the Best Pal (G2). Both were making their second start. Muth returned to bully last-out maiden winner Wine Me Up in the American Pharoah (G1). By leading second-crop sire Good Magic, Muth is out of a winning daughter of Uncle Mo. Black type is practically nonexistent in his female family, with only one stakes-placed miler in three generations. Muth is on the bridle 100 percent in his races and doesn't relax. This could be to his detriment with his pacesetting-pressing style if they go fast early and he's stuck on the far outside. But I must respect the connections, and Muth is good enough to hit the board. Exotics.

Part of the Bob Baffert trio, Muth is 3: 2-1-0 in his career but undefeated in two starts at Santa Anita. The son of Good Magic's sole loss came to stablemate Prince of Monaco. Muth was the odds-on favorite in each start and an easy winner of both Santa Anita races. He lost by 4 1/4 lengths to Prince of Monaco in the Best Pal (G3). But he beat Wine Me Up by 3 3/4 lengths in the American Pharoah (G1) after rerouting there from a proposed start in the Hopeful (G1) at Saratoga. Muth's best Brisnet Speed Rating is the 100 he received in the American Pharoah (G1), where he also earned a career-best 114 TimeformUS figure. Muth's front-running style coupled with his previous success over the Santa Anita oval makes him formidable in this spot. Regular rider Juan Hernandez will be in the irons, and Hernandez and Baffert strike at a 25 percent clip, 52 percent in the money. The American Pharoah has been the most productive final prep race over the last 23 years, with five winners completing the American Pharoah-Juvenile double. One to beat.

11. Noted (20-1)

A large, lumbering gray, Noted has tactical speed and can close or press the pace. Although he's won or placed in all four starts, the Todd Pletcher trainee's speed ratings are some of the lowest in the field. He won the Sapling on dirt, but the runners-up haven't done much. Cairo Prince's son is out of a full sister to multiple graded-stakes winner Mark Valeski, plus she's a half to Grade 3 winner and Grade 1-placed Albano. Noted breezed with Fierceness at Keeneland and stayed a measured neck behind his mate, even on the gallop out. Pass.

The third entrant for Pletcher, Noted, is notable in that he has wins on both turf and dirt. He debuted on the turf in a five-furlong maiden event at Belmont and ran second by 1 1/2 lengths. Pletcher stretched him out to 1 1/16 miles for his second outing, and Noted responded with a victory. Pletcher changed things up again for the son of Cairo Prince's third race, this time sending him out in a mile dirt race. Noted won again. Last out, he was second by a nose in the 1 1/16-mile Bourbon (G2) on turf. Pletcher succeeds at a 22 percent clip with turf-to-dirt runners. Noted typically presses the pace, and his speed ratings are well below the best in this field. Irad Ortiz Jr. opted for this colt over Fierceness, which is interesting because he was not aboard for Noted's sole dirt race. Ortiz and Pletcher visit the winner's circle together at a 21 percent rate. Pass.

                Laurie

           Ashley

2. Prince of Monaco (4-1)

10. Muth (4-1)

6. Locked (7-2)

4. Timberlake (4-1)

1. The Wine Steward (8-1)

6. Locked (7-2)

10. Muth (4-1)

9. Fierceness (6-1)