Head to Head: Handicapping the 2023 Bing Crosby Stakes

Laurie

Ashley

1. Hoist the Gold (15-1)

Hoist the Gold ships in from Churchill for Dallas Stewart. The 4-year-old Mineshaft colt rarely visits the winner’s circle but can be counted upon to hit the board; he’s finished out of the money only twice in the last year. He shipped to Santa Anita for the Malibu (G1), and the race wasn’t as bad as it looked on paper, considering Taiba blew them away. Hoist the Gold finished just 3/4 length behind Forbidden Kingdom. Earlier this year, he finished second by a neck in the Commonwealth Stakes and bested Get Her Number by 2 1/4 lengths. Hoist the Gold has tactical speed but is at his best as a pacesetter/presser.  However, so far this meet, eastern invaders are 0 for 13. Pass.

Hoist the Gold enters off a win in an optional claimer at Ellis Park on July 1. Prior to that, the last time the Mineshaft colt had visited the winner’s circle was back in February 2022. Never one to duck competition, trainer Dallas Stewart has put Hoist the Gold in against some of the best in the country, including facing Cody’s Wish in the two starts prior to his optional claimer win. Stewart is just 2 percent in stakes races, and this will be Hoist the Gold’s first start at Del Mar. I don’t anticipate a win, but he is a check casher. Use underneath.

2.  Spirit of Makena (4-1)

Triple Bend (G2) victor Spirit of Makena is a head shy of a perfect 5-race career record. The George Papaprodromou trainee has bested C Z Rocket, Get Her Number, and Anarchist in previous events. Spirit of Makena’s speed ratings and morning works are a model of consistency. This pace presser can sit a few lengths off the lead. Win contender.

Spirit of Makena is a head shy of being perfect in five career starts. A 5-year-old son of Ghostzapper, Spirit of Makena didn’t hit the track until August of his 4-year-old season due in part to lingering quarter crack issues. Patience is a virtue, though, as, despite the late start, Spirit of Makena has quickly risen to the top of the West Coast’s sprinter division. He enters off back-to-back wins in the San Carlos (G3) and the Triple Bend (G2), where he beat Get Her Number and C Z Rocket. He earned a 103 Equibase speed figure for both of those races, but the 113 he earned when beating Anarchist in an optional claimer three starts back is one of the best in the field. Trainer George Papaprodromou is only 10 percent in stakes races, but Spirit of Makena is clearly a good one. Contender.

3. Todo Fino (20-1)

Todo Fino was a big horse in Chile and transferred his winning form to Del Mar last year, narrowly beating optional claimers in California. The Amador Sanchez trainee kicked off 2023 against the East Coast contingent in the Smile Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream Park. However, he fared no better than a distant third, bested five lengths by local stakes horse Dean Delivers. Todo Fino means “all fine” in English. I don’t think so against this group. Pass.

A Chilean-bred son of Verrazano, Todo Fino successfully transferred his form from South America to North America last year, rattling off two straight victories in optional claimers. Trainer Amador Sanchez gave his sprinter an extended vacation after his October 2022 start and brought him back on July 1 in the Smile Sprint (G3). He tracked the early pace from second but could not gain ground on eventual winner Dean Delivers and had to settle for third after being passed in deep stretch. It was a good effort off the bench, and I expect him to move forward here. Sanchez is zero for his last 19 in stakes races, but Todo Fino could get the proverbial monkey off his back here. Live longshot.

4. The Chosen Vron (4-1)

The Chosen Vron puts his seven-race win streak on the line in the Bing Crosby. The big fish in the restricted stakes pond was no threat in last year’s Pat O’Brien Stakes (G2). The Chosen Vron’s speed ratings are consistently in the high 90’s and fit with this group. He’s usually a pacesetter/presser but can close if necessary. His confidence should be high, and it’s time to take another shot at graded company. Exotics.

California-bred The Chosen Vron is riding a seven-race win streak, all in Cal-bred stakes. He earned a career-best Equibase speed figure in that period, receiving a 112 at Del Mar in the Cary Grant Stakes in November. He is perfectly capable of winning in open company, having captured the Lazaro Barrera (G3) and Affirmed (G3) in 2021. The last time he tried open company did result in a 5th in the Pat O’Brien (G2) last year, but I think that just wasn’t his day. According to Race Lens, Trainer Eric Kruljac is a whopping 50% in stakes races, so you have to think The Chosen Vron is ready for open company once again. Contender.

5. Kid Corleone (20-1)

Kid Corleone’s worst finish was against graded types in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship (G2), where he was cooked by fast early fractions of 21.58 and 44.18 seconds. and staggered home 14 lengths behind Howbeit. I predict a similar result for the Doug O'Neill trainee. Pass.

Kid Corleone either wins or is off the board. He has 3 wins from 6 starts with a career-best 107 Equibase speed figure over this track in a 6 1/2-furlong optional claimer. He tried stakes company in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship (G2) in October but was a badly beaten 6th in a field that included C Z Rocket. He was given an extended vacation and returned a winner last month at Santa Anita, taking a six-furlong optional claimer by 1 1/2-lengths. Trainer Doug O’Neill is just seven percent in stakes races, though he does win at a 20 percent rate with last race winners. Pass.

6. Get Her Number (15-1)

Frequent flyer Get Her Number has tangled with some of the best runners in the country over the last few years. He’s multiple Grade 1 placed, finished second in last year’s Bing Crosby, and had a heartbreaking head defeat in the Met Mile (G1). This one-run closer usually hits the board and must be respected. Mike Smith thinks so. Exotics.

Get Her Number last got his picture taken in November when he beat a high-level optional claiming field by just a head. He’s been in tough company since, running in races like the Pegasus World Cup (G1) and the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1). He’s 4: 0-0-2 in 2023, with both off-the-board finishes coming in the aforementioned grade-one races. He’s finished behind Spirit of Makena and Hoist the Gold in his last three starts. Pass.

7. Anarchist (4-1)

Anarchist was second in the True North Stakes (G2) in his return to the O’Neill barn after winning the Jacques Cartier Stakes (G3) for Josie Carroll. Anarchist is typically a polite horse, letting others go first while he’s content to finish second. He’ll press the pace and has a good shot of hitting the board. Exotics.

Anarchist enters off a runner-up effort to top sprinter Elite Power at Belmont. Two starts back; he earned a career-best 115 Equibase speed figure; however, that effort came over Woodbine’s all-weather track. Lifetime, Anarchist has only been out of the exacta twice in ten starts. This year, he’s 6: 1-5-0, with another of his losses coming to Spirit of Makena. Race Lens shows us that trainer Doug O’Neill wins at just 7 percent in stakes races, but Anarchist is definitely the better of O’Neill’s two runners. Contender.

8. C Z Rocket (12-1)

At 9 years old, C Z Rocket, the old man of the race, doesn’t win as much as he used to but does his best. He was second in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Sprint but had excuses this year with minor race trouble. Draw a line through C Z Rocket’s last performance, 1 1/16 miles isn’t his best distance. The Peter Miller trainee was a distant second behind both Dr. Schivel and Spirit of Makena last May. C Z Rocket can draft in behind the speed. Exotics.

Warrior C Z Rocket was once one of the top sprinters in the country, but he tailed off a bit, beginning with the 2021 Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Don’t throw him out to pasture, however, because he’s still cashing checks in graded stakes at the ripe ol’ age of 9. He enters off a fourth-place finish in the Pleasanton Mile, which was actually contested at 1 mile 70 yards and is certainly longer than he wants to go. Use underneath.

9. Sibelius (6-1)

Dubai Golden Shaheen (G1) hero Sibelius can be forgiven his fourth-place finish in the listed Aristides Stakes, the first start off a layoff and return from Dubai. The Jeremiah O'Dwyer trainee does his best work on the front end, and he’ll have plenty of company. However, his late-pace figures are low. Pass.

Sibelius was the gutsy winner of this year’s Dubai Golden Shaheen (G1), his third win in as many starts for the year. He earned a career and field-best 119 for that effort. However, he did not have a successful return to the U.S., finishing 4th, beaten by 11 ¼-lengths, in the Aristides at Churchill Downs on June 3. According to Race Lens, trainer Jeremiah O’Dwyer is 29 percent in stakes races and 21 perce t with runners coming off a 1-2 month layoff. The jury is out as to whether or not Sibelius left his best form in the U.A.E. Exotics.

10. American Theorem (8-1)

Defending Bing Crosby winner American Theorem was severely beaten in his last two starts, the Breeders’ Cup Sprint and, more recently, an allowance event, where, as the favorite, he finished 7 3/4 lengths behind Kid Corleone. The pretty gray 6-year-old may have lost a step. Pass.

This 6-year-old son of American Pharoah returned from a 7-month layoff on June 16, finishing 5th in an optional claimer, 7 3/4 lengths behind winner Kid Corleone. The defending Bing Crosby champ, American Theorem, looked like a legit Breeders’ Cup Sprint threat but ended up 8th. He certainly has room to improve second off the layoff, but I’ll need to see it to believe it. Pass.

11. Dr. Schivel (7-2)

Dr. Schivel won the 2021 edition of the Bing Crosby. He was sidelined after the 2022 Dubai Golden Shaheen (G1) due to bone bruising. The 5-year-old returned this year with an eye-opening 4 1/2 length score over C Z Rocket in an allowance contest, but next out, found the Met Mile too much to handle and finished fifth. The Mark Glatt trainee loves Del Mar; he has three firsts and a second from four starts and five wins from seven starts at six furlongs. Dr. Schivel had a sharp pre-race five-furlong work in 59.20 seconds. Win contender.

Dr. Schivel suffered one of the most agonizing losses ever when Aloha West nailed him on the wire in the 2021 Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1). He was then 7th behind Flightline in that year’s Malibu (G1) before traveling to the U.A.E., where he finished a solid 3rd in the 2022 Dubai Golden Shaheen (G1). The trip overseas really did a number on the son of Violence, and he did not return to the starting gate until May 13 of this year. He easily won an allowance race at Santa Anita but was no threat when finishing 5th in the Met Mile (G1). He’ll likely appreciate the return to California, but he faces a tough group en route to regaining his previous form. The 115 he earned in Dubai is one of the best figures in the field, and the 109 and 101 he earned this year says he still has it in him. He put in a sharp 5-furlong work July 22, and trainer Mark Glatt is 19 percent with the route-to-sprint angle. Contender.

12. Peaceful Waters (20-1)

The free-running Peaceful Waters has hit the board in 8 of 9 starts, mainly allowance/optional claiming level. He’s been in John Sadler’s barn since May but is making his first start since April. Dialed In’s son is talented against lesser but is paddling upstream against Grade 1 company at a track where he’s never raced, but I have a lot of respect for Sadler’s placing. Exotics.

Peaceful Waters tries stakes company for the first time, and trainer John Sadler couldn’t have picked a tougher spot for this 4-year-old son of Dialed In. He enters off a career-best effort, earning a 103 Equibase speed figure while taking an optional claimer gate-to-wire. That was his first and only start of 2023, and that was back in April; he’ll be coming off a nearly 3 1/2-month layoff, an angle with which Sadler produces winners at a 19 percent clip. Drawing the far outside post will be detrimental to his early run style, especially with the amount of other speed in this race. It’s also worth noting that this will be the ridgling’s first start for Sadler. Pass.